USA vs Guatemala Odds, Picks & Predictions for Gold Cup Semifinal

• The USMNT will face underdog Guatemala in the semifinals of the 2025 Gold Cup
• Both teams won on penalties in their quarterfinal clashes
• Below, see the odds for USA vs Guatemala, plus picks and predictions for Wednesday’s game in St Louis, MO

After a tough quarterfinal clash with Costa Rica, the USMNT has received a favorable semifinal draw against Guatemala, the 106th-ranked team in the FIFA world rankings. The United State is a heavy favorite on home soil to, not just advance, but do so in the first 90 minutes.

USA vs Guatemala is scheduled to kick off at 7:00 pm ET at Energizer Park in St Louis, Missouri.

USMNT vs Guatemala Odds

On the three-way moneyline, the US is a -380 betting favorite, which amounts to a 79.17% implied win probability. The draw is priced at +450 (18.18%) and a Guatemala victory at a long +900 (10%). The odds to qualify favor the US even more heavily at -725 (87.88%), with Guatemala at +450. The total-goals line is sitting at 2.5 with the over slightly favored at -140 and the under a +110 underdog. Odds as of July 2 at Caesars. Claim the Caesars Sportsbook promo code to get a bonus to use on the 2025 Gold Cup.

The United States saw off a spirited challenge from world #54 Costa Rica in the quarters. The teams exchanged first-half goals before Maximilian Arfsten gave the US its first lead just two minutes into the second half. Alonso Martinez leveled for Costa Rica in the 71st minute, but the US won the ensuing penalty shootout 4-3. Keeper Matthew Freese was masterful, stopping three of the six penalties he faced.

Guatemala was fortunate to advance past Canada in its quarterfinal. The Canadians were in full control, up 1-0 before Jacob Shaffelburg was red carded for laying out a Guatemala defender with a bodycheck that would have made Scott Stevens proud. Guatemala pressed the action in the second half and got the equalizer before earning a 6-5 win on penalties.

USA vs Guatemala H2H History

The head-to-head history between the USA and Guatemala has been heavily skewed to the United States, especially on home soil. In the last four matches in the US, dating back to October 2012, the USMNT has outscored Guatemala 17-1. The last two matches both ended 4-0. Guatemala won its only match at home in that span, a 2-0 win in Guatemala city in March 2016 during World Cup qualification.

Of course, the most-recent matches between these CONCACAF rivals are now almost a baffling ten years ago. Not a single semifinal starter for either team was on the field in 2016, so the “recent” H2H history is of limited value.

USA vs Guatemala Prediction & Picks

• First-half under 0.5 (+230)
• Under 2.5 goals (+110)

The Guatemala defense has been holding up fairly well throughout the tournament. They earned a 1-0 victory over Jamaica in their first match, fell 1-0 to heavily-favored Panama in their second, and downed Guadeloupe 3-2. In the quarterfinals, Canada was certainly in control of the action when both teams were 11 aside. But Guatemala was unfortunate to concede on a phantom penalty call in the first half. They held Canada to well under 0.5 xGF but for the penalty. The Canadians had just one shot on target other than Jonathan David’s penalty goal.

The United States managed eight goals in three group-stage matches, but five of those came against Trinidad & Tobago. On the whole, this team has had a lot of trouble scoring of late. They fell 1-0 to Panama and 2-1 to Canada in their two most-recent Nations League matches in March. In their two pre-tournament friendlies, they managed just one goal during losses to Turkey (2-1) and Switzerland (4-0), getting badly outplayed in both.

With so much at stake, I can’t see Mauricio Pochettino coming out too aggressively. The US conceded in the first 15 minutes against Costa Rica and job #1 will be to ensure that doesn’t happen again. A scoreless first half is priced at +230 at Caesars, which amounts to just a 30.30% implied probability. If the teams come out as cagey as I’m expecting, there’s excellent value on that bet.