Open Championship First-Round Leader Expert Picks

• The Open Championship tees off Thursday, July 17th, from Royal Portrush Golf Club
• Scottie Scheffler is the favorite to lead after 18 holes over Rory McIlroy
• Read below for five picks of mine to be leader after day one of the British Open

The final men’s major of 2025 is upon us, after Rory McIlroy won the Masters, Scottie Scheffler claimed the PGA Championship, and J.J. Spaun shocked everyone with the U.S. Open title.

Unsurprisingly, Scheffler is the favorite in the Open Championship odds to win outright as the field gets set to wrestle Royal Portrush in Ireland. The last time this track hosted the Open was in 2019, when Shane Lowry claimed his first major title in front of his home fans.

Instead of waiting until Sunday to potentially collect our earnings, this article will explore bets that can be made that will settle at the conclusion of the first round, searching to find who will be the first-round leader after 18 holes.

British Open First-Round Leader Odds

The weather will be cloudy with showers on and off throughout the day, with temperatures in the high 50s in the morning, reaching mid-60s by afternoon. Wind gusts will continue to wreak havoc throughout the day, with speeds ranging from 17 to 22 MPH.

Scottie Scheffler, the favorite to win outright, is sporting the shortest odds to be the first-round leader, followed by reigning Masters champion Rory McIlroy.

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Odds as of July 15 at FanDuel. See the best online sportsbook for the 2025 Open Championship.

British Open First-Round Leader Picks

• Shane Lowry +4000
• Collin Morikawa +4500
• Marco Penge +7500
• Harry Hall +8000
• Aldrich Potgieter +10000

In terms of the top guns, I’ve honed in on Shane Lowry (10:09 am), who blitzed the field by six strokes the last time the Open was at Royal Portrush. The Irishman has four top-10s on the campaign, and three top-12s in his last 5 Opens, including a sixth-place result last year.

On the season, Lowry is third in strokes gained: approaching the green and fifth tee-to-green and is +4000 to be ahead after one round. With a strong backing by the adoring local crowd, they could drag him to take the lead after 18 holes.

Another big name that’s no stranger to leaderboards at major championships is Collin Morikawa (10:09 am), who is playing with Lowry. The 2021 Open champion (along with 2020 PGA) has nine top-20s in 15 PGA tour starts on the season, and is fifth best in first round scoring (68.86) among those competing this week.

He’s shot in the 60s in six of his last eight stroke-play tournaments, with the two outliers resulting in 70s. He’s second tee-to-green, sixth approaching the green and seventh in total strokes gained on the year, making him an intriguing selection at +4500.

PGA Tour First-Round Scoring Average Leaders

Longshots Who Could Lead After 18 Holes

Unheralded Marco Penge (6:57 am) has an incredible opportunity to set the early pace, competing in the third group out for the day. The Englishman won for the first time on the DP World Tour this year, claiming the Hainan Classic, and more recently, has put together four straight top-25s. He’s improved each time, finishing runner-up along with Rory McIlroy at last week’s Genesis Scottish Open, so his +7500 odds are enticing.

Harry Hall (1:48 pm) has the third-best first-round scoring average in 2025, and the second-best in the field. He’s been as consistent as they come, shooting in the 60’s in nine straight Thursdays, and eleven of twelve. That’s allowed him to rack up seven straight top-25s. He’s third in strokes gained: putting, which should give him plenty of birdie chances to go low on the first day, and his odds are +8000.

For my final selection, I’m going with Aldrich Potgieter (9:47 am), a +10000 longshot. The 20-year-old South African phenom leads the PGA Tour in driving distance and recently won his first career event at the Rocket Classic. You can do a whole lot worse at these odds for a player who may be green in terms of experience, but has a phenomenal bright future in front of him.