UFC Shanghai Predictions & Odds: Walker vs Zhang Main Card Picks

• Saturday’s UFC Fight Night features a light heavyweight showdown between Johnny Walker and Zhang Mingyang in Shanghai
• Zhang brings a 19-6 record with 13 knockouts into his home country main event
• Check out my UFC Shanghai predictions for Walker vs Zhang and more

The UFC returns to China for the first time in years, and they’re rolling out the red carpet for local hero Zhang Mingyang in Saturday’s main event.

Online sportsbooks are telling you everything you need to know about this one. Walker opened around +280 and has drifted out to +295, while Zhang sits firm at -375. That’s the smart money talking, and I’m listening.

Saturday’s card kicks off painfully early for U.S. viewers with prelims at 3 am ET, but the main card gets rolling at 6 am ET on ESPN+. Set those alarms or stay up late. Either way, there’s money to be made.

UFC Shanghai Predictions

Here are my favorite plays for Saturday’s main card, with Walker vs Zhang headlining a slate that features some serious betting value beyond the main event.

Walker vs Zhang Prediction

Let’s not sugarcoat this: Walker is being fed to the wolves here. The UFC wants their Chinese star, and they’re giving Zhang exactly what he needs to shine. Walker (21-9) has been knocked out in back-to-back fights, and his chin has become seriously questionable. Meanwhile, Zhang has finished 12 straight opponents, with 11 of those coming by knockout.

Tale of the Tape

Walker’s reach advantage looks nice on paper, but it won’t matter when he’s getting pressured. Zhang comes forward like a freight train, and Walker’s defensive striking has always been suspect. The Brazilian absorbs way too many shots for someone with his deteriorating durability.

Zhang has been finishing people in the first round consistently. His last three UFC wins? All first-round stoppages. Walker’s last two losses? First-round knockouts. The math here is elementary. I’m not laying -375 on Zhang’s moneyline when there’s better value elsewhere.

• Walker vs Zhang Pick: Zhang by KO/TKO (-260 at FanDuel)

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Ortega vs Sterling Prediction

This fight got weird at the scales when Ortega came in at 153 pounds, looking rough. The bad weight cut has me running to Sterling even faster than I already was. The former bantamweight champion is simply the better grappler, the cleaner striker, and now he’s facing an opponent who might gas after a round.

Sterling lands 4.41 significant strikes per minute with 52% accuracy, while Ortega throws at 37% accuracy and absorbs nearly 7 strikes per minute. That’s a recipe for getting picked apart. Sterling’s wrestling is elite. He attempts 6 takedowns per 15 minutes compared to Ortega’s 1.7, and his control rate of 64% dwarfs Ortega’s 48%.

Ortega’s only path to victory is catching a submission, but Sterling didn’t become champion by being careless with his neck. The bad weight cut might’ve just sealed Ortega’s fate.

• Ortega vs Sterling Pick: Sterling by Decision (-110 at DraftKings)

Pavlovich vs Cortes-Acosta Prediction

Pavlovich might not be in title contention anymore, but he’s still a wrecking ball when he connects. The Russian heavyweight has 15 knockouts in 19 wins, and his 84-inch reach gives him the tools to keep Cortes-Acosta at the end of his fists.

Cortes-Acosta is on a nice five-fight streak, but this is a different level of power he’s facing. Serghei Spivac wobbled him multiple times in their fight, and Pavlovich hits significantly harder than Spivac. The Dominican fighter relies on volume and durability, but Pavlovich only needs one clean shot.

The -250 line feels about right, but I’m not interested in laying that juice. Instead, give me the knockout prop.

• Pavlovich vs Cortes-Acosta Pick: Pavlovich by KO/TKO (+105 at FanDuel)

UFC Shanghai Odds – Main Card

Odds as of August 23rd at DraftKings. Browse top UFC betting apps before making a wager on tonight’s card.

The sharp money has been all over Zhang and Sterling this week. Zhang opened at -350 and has been bet up to -375, while Sterling has moved from -300 out to -500 after Ortega’s weight miss. Those moves tell you where the smart bettors are putting their cash.

Meanwhile, I’m seeing value on the undercard with Sumudaerji at -175. The rangy flyweight should control distance against Borjas, who tends to freeze when pressured. In front of the home crowd, Sumudaerji gets it done.

For those wanting a parlay, Sterling and Zhang combined at -190 gives you two fighters who should handle business without much drama. Just remember that this is MMA, and anything can happen when the cage door closes.

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