Western Michigan Broncos vs Michigan State Spartans Week 1 Odds, Picks & Player Props

• The Michigan State Spartans are heavily favored, with the spread swelling from an opening of -17.5 to -20.5 against the Western Michigan Broncos.
• Quarterback Aidan Chiles makes his much-anticipated debut for the Spartans, with his passing yards prop set at 234.5 yards.
• While Michigan State is expected to dominate, Western Michigan’s up-tempo offense could challenge a Spartans defense that struggled against the pass last season, creating potential value on the over.

An all-Michigan battle takes place on Friday night as the Michigan State Spartans (5-7 SU, 3-8-1 ATS, 6-6 O/U in 2024) host the Western Michigan Broncos (6-7 SU, 5-8 ATS, 7-6 O/U in 2024) at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, MI, at 7:00 pm ET.

All eyes in East Lansing will be on junior quarterback Aidan Chiles, who was ineffective in his first season with the Spartans in 2024 after transferring from Oregon State. He led MSU to just 19.2 points per game will be tasked with engineering a significant improvement for a program looking to re-establish its physical identity.

For Western Michigan, this matchup represents a major early-season test and an opportunity to make a statement against a Big Ten opponent. The Broncos bring back an experienced offense that showed flashes of explosiveness last season, averaging over 28 points per game while reaching bowl eligibility with a 6-6 record. WMU’s up-tempo, quick-passing attack will look to neutralize the Spartans’ talent advantage in the trenches and test a secondary that was vulnerable to big plays a year ago.

The following preview will break down the odds, analyze key matchups, and provide our top betting picks and player props for this Week 1 showdown.

Western Michigan vs Michigan State Odds

The Spartans are overwhelming 20.5-point favorites in the Week 1 college football odds. After removing the vig, Michigan State has an implied win probability of 90.6%, while the Western Michigan Broncos are given just a 9.4% chance to pull off the upset. The nearly-three-touchdown spread reflects the significant talent gap between the Big Ten and MAC programs, and the total of 49.5 points suggests that oddsmakers expect the Spartans’ offense to do the heavy lifting.

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The weather forecast calls for a pleasant evening, with clear skies and temperatures in the low 70s, accompanied by a light breeze of 7-10 mph, perfect conditions for football.

WMU vs MSU Odds Movement

The betting market has shown significant confidence in the Spartans since lines opened. The spread has moved a full three points, from an opening of Michigan State -17.5 to the current -20.5. This substantial shift indicates that a majority of the money in the college football public betting splits – likely a combination of public and sharp action – is backing the home favorite to win decisively.

The moneyline has followed suit, with the Spartans moving from -1449 to a prohibitively short -1695. This movement isn’t unexpected given the historical dominance of Big Ten teams over MAC opponents, especially at home. Bettors are banking on Michigan State’s superior size, speed, and depth to overwhelm the Broncos over four quarters.

The total has held steady at 49.5, suggesting a split opinion on whether Western Michigan can contribute enough offensively to push the score over the number against a revamped Spartans defense.

Key Matchups to Watch in Western Michigan vs Michigan State

Quarterback vs Pass Defense

Aidan Chiles leads a Michigan State passing attack that averaged just 218.1 yards per game last season. But he faces a Western Michigan secondary that was porous in 2024, allowing 222.6 passing yards per contest and a concerning 149.6 opponent QB rating.

The Broncos’ defense struggled to generate pressure, recording only 19 sacks, which should give Chiles ample time in the pocket to find his receivers and build early-season chemistry.

Running Game vs Run Defense

The Spartans will aim to establish a physical ground game, a staple of their new identity. Last year, they managed a modest 116.3 rushing yards per game. They’ll be attacking a Western Michigan run defense that was gashed for 192.5 yards per game on the ground, and a staggering 5.0 yards per carry in 2024.

If Michigan State’s offensive line, a key focus of improvement, can control the line of scrimmage, they should bulldoze their way to a dominant performance on the ground.

Pass Catchers vs Secondary

Michigan State’s top receiver, Nick Marsh, will be a focal point against a Broncos secondary that yielded numerous explosive plays last season. Western Michigan’s cornerbacks struggled in coverage, allowing a high completion percentage. For the Broncos, tight end Blake Bosma is a legitimate red zone threat and will be a tough matchup for a Spartans linebacker corps that is still solidifying its rotation.

Offensive Line vs Pass Rush

This is a critical battleground. The Broncos’ offensive line struggled in pass protection last season, and they now face a Big Ten defensive front. Michigan State’s pass rush, which produced 19 sacks in 2024, will look to disrupt the timing of Western Michigan’s quick-passing game. Conversely, the Spartans’ offensive line, which allowed 36 sacks last year, must prove it has improved against a Broncos front that will likely rely on blitzes to generate pressure.

WMU vs Michigan State Player Props

Player props from bet365 on August 28.

Chiles’ passing yards line of 231.5 seems very achievable against a Western Michigan team that ranked near the bottom of the MAC in pass defense last season.

If the Spartans build a comfortable lead, they may lean on the run game in the second half, but Chiles should have plenty of opportunities early to connect on chunk plays and easily surpass this number.

Marsh’s receiving line at 58.5 yards is a strong target. As the clear WR1, he should command a significant target share against a vulnerable secondary and has the talent to break a long gain.

Chiles’s rushing prop of 24.5 yards is also intriguing; his mobility is a key asset, and he could easily pick up this yardage on scrambles or designed runs.

For Western Michigan, running back Jalen Buckley (+135) is their best bet to find the end zone, likely on a goal-line carry or as a receiving threat out of the backfield.

Western Michigan Broncos vs Michigan State Spartans Picks & Prediction

• Over 49.5 (-115) at BetMGM
• Marsh over 58.5 receiving yards (-115) at bet365

The 20.5-point spread is daunting for a season opener with, despite the the talent disparity heavily favoring Michigan State. Instead, the over is the stronger play.

The Spartans’ clear path to victory lies in dominating the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Offensively, they should be able to run at will against a Western Michigan defense that surrendered over 190 rushing yards per game last season. This will open up play-action for Chiles, who faces a secondary that was one of the least effective in the MAC. Expect Michigan State to control the clock and wear down the Broncos’ defense, pulling away in the second half.

Defensively, Michigan State’s front seven should overwhelm a Western Michigan offensive line that struggled in pass protection. The Broncos will try to mitigate this with a quick-passing game, and I expect WMU to score enough to help push the total over.

Recent History: Western Michigan Broncos vs Michigan State Spartans

Michigan State has thoroughly dominated the series against its in-state foe, winning the last six meetings. The most recent matchup occurred in 2022, a comfortable 35-13 victory for the Spartans in East Lansing. Historically, the Spartans have not only won but covered the spread in four of the last five games against the Broncos, underscoring their consistent superiority in this matchup.