Best NFL Win Total Bets to Target Ahead of Week 1

• The NFL season kicks off Thursday, September 4th
• Denver finished sixth in DVOA last season and faces the league’s 14th-easiest schedule
• See the best NFL win total bets to target ahead of Week 1 below

The NFL season is officially one week away. Now that rosters have been set, and holdouts have either signed or been traded away, it’s time to see which NFL win totals present value ahead of Week 1.

Below, find my three favorite NFL win total bets, along with the book currently offering the best price.

NFL Win Total Bets

My favorite NFL win total bet to target all summer has been over 9.5 wins for the Broncos, and nothing I saw from training camp or the preseason has changed my mind. I was already high on the Packers, and with the huge splash they made by acquiring Micah Parsons, I’m comfortable taking their adjusted line of over 10.5 wins. I’ll round out my best NFL win total bets by fading the Commanders, who are in line for some serious regression.

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Best NFL Win Total Bet #1: Denver Broncos Over 9.5 Wins

It’s hard not to be impressed with what Sean Payton did last year with the Denver offense. He took a rookie quarterback, with virtually no run game, and unproven receivers and turned them into a top-10 unit that made the playoffs.

Now in year two of the Bo Nix era expectations are high and rightfully so. The Broncos boast a top-10 offensive line by all metrics, and bolstered their running back room with offensive rookie of the year odds contender RJ Harvey. 

Their defense could be the best in football, anchored by a ferocious pass rush that ranked second in pressure rate, and Patrick Surtain II, the number one corner in the NFL.

The icing on the cake is their NFL strength of schedule. Denver will play a third place schedule, with eight games against the AFC South and NFC East, two of the weakest divisions in football. This team is a trendy Super Bowl odds contender, that’s set to exceed preseason expectations yet again.

Best NFL Win Total Bet #2: Green Bay Packers Over 10.5 Wins

What was missing from a Green Bay squad that won 11 games last season? A healthy quarterback and a dominant pass rusher. Well, it looks like they’ve fixed both those issues heading into Week 1.

Jordan Love is back to full strength after playing the entire 2024 season injured. Despite his nagging injuries, he still commanded a top-eight scoring offense. Now healthy, he’s generating buzz in the NFL MVP odds, and it doesn’t hurt that his team finally drafted a 1st Round receiver. Matthew Golden has been better than advertised, and him and a healthy Love are going to give opposing defenses fits.

Green Bay Packers 2024 Offensive Stats

As for improving the pass rush, the Packers just traded for one of the best in the game. Parsons drastically improves what was already a top-10 defense by DVOA, by giving them increased flexibility.

In order for Green Bay to generate pressure last season, they needed to bring extra bodies. Parsons can solve that issue, as few can get to the QB as often as he can. That will allow the Pack to drop more guys in coverage, to help cover up an underwhelming corner group.

Not only is Green Bay a great bet to exceed 10.5 wins, they’re also a strong value in the NFL Divisional odds. The NFC North is there for the taking after the Lions lost six coaches, including both co-ordinators in the offseason, and the Vikings are breaking in a new quarterback that hasn’t played football in two years.

Best NFL Win Total Bet #3: Washington Commanders Under 9.5 Wins

The Commanders converted a league-high 20 of 23 fourth downs last season. They got significant production from players past their primes in key positions, and won 9 one-score games. If you expect history to repeat itself in 2025, I believe you are sorely mistaken.

Last year, Washington benefited from a ridiculously soft schedule. This year’s opponents are no joke, with eight games against the NFC North and AFC West, arguably the two best divisions in football.

Yes, Jaden Daniels is special, but there are red flags all over this team. They’re one of the oldest teams in football, and there’s a glaring hole in the run game now that Brian Robinson has been traded away.

Defensively, not nearly enough was done to fix a defense that was 25th against the run, and bottom-11 in total pressures. I’ll gladly take under 9.5 wins and even sprinkle a half unit on under 8.5 wins at +160.