TCU vs North Carolina Prediction & Updated Betting Line (Monday, Sep. 1)

• Six-time Super Bowl champion Bill Belichick makes his college coaching debut for UNC tonight
• Josh Hoover leads the TCU offense after throwing for nearly 4,000 yards last season
• Read below for my TCU vs North Carolina prediction and the updated betting line on Monday, Sep. 1

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The final game of Week 1 features the TCU Horned Frogs heading to Chapel Hill to face the North Carolina Tar Heels. TCU (9-4 in 2024) and North Carolina (6-7 in 2024) enter 2025 unranked, but TCU did receive some votes in the preseason AP Poll. North Carolina plays host at 8:00 PM ET on Monday, September 1st, on an ESPN broadcast.

I’ve made my TCU vs North Carolina prediction for Monday, and set out the updated betting line as kickoff approaches.

TCU vs North Carolina Prediction & Pick

• Under 55.0 (-110 at bet365)

Continuing the theme of some shockingly low-scoring games across college football, pick the under in this Labor Day showdown. TCU had an above-average scoring defense last season, allowing 24.6 points per game. North Carolina had a below-average scoring defense (28.1 points per game) but new head coach Bill Belichick’s biggest strength is his defensive coaching.

Curious about the new UNC defense under Bill Belichick?

The blueprint might be his son's Washington team, which majored in Cover 1 & had one of college football's highest blitz rates last year.

Watch Now! | https://t.co/2Y8s8uOiGc
— pic.twitter.com/186tQ7pM8T

— Cody Alexander (@The_Coach_A) August 22, 2025

Both TCU and North Carolina lost their biggest weapons to the NFL Draft. TCU’s No.1 wide receiver, Jack Bech, accounted for 62 catches for 1,034 yards and nine touchdowns, but the Las Vegas Raiders will use his services in 2025. Staying in the AFC West, the Chargers selected North Carolina’s superstar running back Omarion Hampton in the first round. Hampton led the ACC in rushing in both 2023 and 2024. Last season, he had over 2,000 scrimmage yards and 17 touchdowns.

TCU retains its quarterback, Josh Hoover. The junior is entering his this season as TCU’s starter, throwing for over 6,100 yards in 24 games so far. Last season, he threw for 3,949 yards, 27 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. North Carolina is integrating transfer Gio Lopez at quarterback. At South Alabama last season, Lopez threw for 2,559 yards and 18 touchdowns to go along with five interceptions.

Gio Lopez is going to be must watch TV for UNC this fall. pic.twitter.com/dPEItsEmhA

— Just Means Less ACC (@JML_ACC) August 19, 2025

North Carolina is the great unknown in college football this year as they boast a top-10 transfer class and the greatest NFL head coach of all time. TCU is more intact from its 2024 squad, but losing Bech and third-round pick Savion Williams will be a hindrance early on the season. With this in mind, take the under.

TCU vs North Carolina Betting Lines

The oddsmakers have TCU as a road favorite with the total currently ranging from 54.0 or 55.0, depending on the book. Over bettors should take over 54.0 at Caesars at -110 odds. Under bettors should take the bet365 total of 55.0 at -110.

If you wish to back TCU, you can get them at -3.5 on the spread at -110 at BetMGM or Caesars, or -176 on the moneyline at FanDuel. If you are betting on North Carolina, take them at +3.5 on FanDuel (-108) at bet365 or +150 on the moneyline at Caesars.

Previous Matchups

While TCU and North Carolina have not played since 1997, North Carolina holds a 3-0 lifetime record in the series.

When they most recently played, TCU was in the WAC (before moving conferences in 2001, 2005, and 2012), and Hall of Fame running back LaDainian Tomlinson was a freshman.

For the Tar Heels, they were in the final season of Mack Brown’s first tenure in Chapel Hill. North Carolina had future four-time Pro Bowler Alge Crumpler on the roster.