Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks, Player Props & Best Odds (Sep 11)

• Kevin Gausman and the Blue Jays face Cristian Javier and the Astros in the rubber match of their three-game series
• Toronto has been dominant at home after a loss, boasting a 9-1 record in their last ten
• See my favorite Astros vs Blue Jays picks and player props to bet, plus the best available odds

Still without Bo Bichette, the Toronto Blue Jays (83-62, 46-25 home) face the Houston Astros (79-67, 36-35 away) in the rubber match of a three game series at the Rogers Centre. First pitch for this getaway-day matinee is scheduled for 3:07 pm ET.

The Jays are sizable home favorites with Kevin Gausman (9-10, 3.63 ERA) facing Cristian Javier (1-2, 4.43 ERA) on the mound. Javier has an excellent history against the Toronto hitters, but he’s making just his sixth appearance of the season after returning from injury in mid-August, and the first five generated mediocre-at-best results.

Below, see my Blue Jays vs Astros picks and predictions, the main player props to target, pitcher-vs-batter history, and the best available odds for the series finale.

Jump to: Picks | Player Props | Pitcher-vs-Batter History | Best Odds

Astros vs Blue Jays Picks & Prediction

• Toronto Blue Jays moneyline (-150) at BetMGM
• Under 8.5 runs (-110) at ESPN Bet
• Player Prop: Kevin Gausman over 5.5 Strikeouts (+115) at Fanatics

The deciding game of this series presents a classic case of a strong situational trend clashing with recent head-to-head history. While the Houston Astros have won six of the last seven meetings, the Toronto Blue Jays have been nearly automatic at home following a loss. With their ace on the mound, I’m backing the situational trend and the superior starting pitcher. Kevin Gausman provides a significant edge over Cristian Javier, whose 4.43 ERA and underlying metrics do not inspire confidence. Gausman has effectively neutralized Houston’s most dangerous bats in the past, particularly Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Peña, who have combined for one hit and 14 strikeouts against Gausman in 23 at-bats.

Several key trends support a play on the Blue Jays and the under. Toronto is an impressive 9-1 in their last 10 home games after a loss and a dominant 16-4 in their last 20 home contests against teams with a winning record. Conversely, the Astros have a tendency to let down after a victory, having lost their last four games that followed a win. The most compelling trend is the total: the under has cashed in all six of the last meetings between these two clubs. With Gausman on the hill and the Blue Jays’ offense missing Bo Bichette, another low-scoring affair seems likely.

Javier vs Gausman: Starting Pitcher-vs-Batter History

Both pitchers have excellent track records against the lineups they’ll be facing on Thursday afternoon. Gausman has a considerably larger sample size against the Houston hitters, but Javier’s is big enough to be significant.

Houston Astros Career Statistics vs Kevin Gausman

Gausman has limited the current Astros to a miniscule .168 average and .535 OPS in over 100 at-bats. He’s only allowed three home runs in that span, one each to Jose Altuve, Mauricio Dubon, and Jake Meyers.

Gausman has absolutely embarrassed Yordan Alvarez, who is 0-for-12 with eight strikeouts against the Toronto righty.

Toronto Blue Jays Career Statistics vs Cristian Javier

The Blue Jays somehow have even worse numbers against Javier in 67 total at-bats. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has the only longball against the Houston righty, but he’s just 3-for-16 lifetime against Javier.

Vlad Guerrero Jr is 0-for-6 with two Ks and two walks.

Blue Jays vs Astros Player Props

MLB player props are consensus numbers from Sep. 11. Actual lines will vary slightly by sportsbook.

The prop market highlights the expected disparity in the starting pitching matchup. Kevin Gausman’s strikeout line is set at 5.5, a number he is more than capable of surpassing given his history of mowing down some of Houston’s top hitters. He has fanned Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Peña a combined 14 times in just 23 at-bats.

Cristian Javier’s prop lines are notably low, with his strikeout total at just 4.5 and his outs recorded line at 14.5 (one out short of five full innings). This suggests the market anticipates a short and potentially rocky outing for the Astros’ right-hander against a Blue Jays lineup that, despite recent struggles, still possesses significant power.

Best Available Blue Jays vs Astros Odds

The best Blue Jays moneyline is -150 at BetMGM, while bettors can get the Astros as long as +136 at FanDuel. ESPN Bet has the best runline price on Houston at +1.5 (-160). The best Blue Jays runline is +135 at bet365.

Thursday’s MLB odds show almost no variety in the run total from book to book. The number is 8.5 across the board, and almost all books have the odds at -110 both way. The exception is Caesars, which is currently offering a -105 price on the over.

TOR vs HOU Odds Movement

The betting market has shown subtle but telling movement leading up to first pitch. Toronto opened as -154 favorites on the moneyline and have seen that price tick up to -159, indicating that early money is backing the home team. Consequently, the Houston Astros have drifted from +130 to +135, offering slightly better value for underdog backers.

The total has seen the most significant adjustment. After opening with the Under 8.5 priced as the favorite at -115, the line has balanced out to -110 on both sides. This shift suggests that while the historical trend points heavily towards the Under, some betting action has come in on the Over, forcing oddsmakers to even the price. This movement could be a reaction to the Blue Jays’ offense being due for a breakout or a lack of faith in Cristian Javier. The most telling factor, however, remains the public betting splits, which show heavy support for Toronto despite the recent injury to shortstop Bo Bichette.