K-State vs Arizona Prediction, Closing Odds, Trends & Best Bet
By Brady Trettenero in College Football
Published:
- Kansas State is a 1.5-point road favorite over Arizona on Friday night
- The Wildcats from Tucson have outscored opponents 88-9 through two games
- Keep reading for my Kansas State vs Arizona picks and predictions, plus the closing KSU vs ARIZ odds
Two teams heading in opposite directions clash Friday night in the desert. The Arizona Wildcats (2-0) are flying high after dominating their first two opponents by a combined 79 points. Meanwhile, Kansas State (1-2) limps into Tucson fresh off a home loss to Army and desperate to salvage their season.
The line tells you everything about how far K-State has fallen. Despite winning this matchup 31-7 last year, they’re barely favored on the road. Online sportsbooks can’t decide who to back in the college football odds.
Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00 pm ET from Arizona Stadium, with FOX providing the broadcast coverage.
K-State vs Arizona Prediction & Best Bets
- Arizona +1.5 (-112)
- Under 54.5 (-107)
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Kansas State looks broken right now. They’ve played three games decided by exactly three points and lost two of them. The offense can’t establish the run, averaging just 109 yards per game on the ground. They’re attempting only 24.7 rushes per game, third-fewest in the FBS.
The Army loss was particularly damning. K-State held the ball for less than 20 minutes, their lowest time of possession in over a decade. Avery Johnson ran just three times despite being their most dynamic playmaker. That can’t happen again if they want any shot at winning in Tucson.
Arizona, on the other hand, has been surgical. Noah Fifita has thrown six touchdowns without an interception through two games. He’s completing over 67% of his passes and already has 50 career touchdown passes. His connection with Javin Whatley gives Arizona a big-play element that Kansas State’s depleted secondary can’t handle.
The Wildcats defense has been suffocating. They’re allowing just 71.0 passer rating, third-best in the FBS. They’ve forced seven turnovers in two games and haven’t allowed a passing touchdown. Kansas State’s offense, already struggling, faces a nightmare matchup.
But here’s what seals it for me: Arizona is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as a home underdog. They thrive in this exact spot. Kansas State is 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games and 0-3 ATS this season.
Quincy Craig has been explosive for Arizona, averaging 10.4 yards per carry. He’ll feast against a Kansas State run defense that allowed Army to control the entire game. The Wildcats will establish the run early and control the tempo.
As for the total, both defenses should keep this low-scoring. Arizona has allowed just nine points all season. Kansas State’s offense managed only 246 total yards against Army. With potential weather concerns and both teams likely leaning on the ground game, the under becomes my secondary bet.
Kansas State vs Arizona Betting Trends
The line movement tells the real story here. Kansas State opened -2.5, but sharp money on Arizona has driven it down to -1.5. The public is backing the Wildcats with 60% of spread handle, meaning sharps and squares disagree over how this game will play out.
Kansas State hasn’t covered a single game this season (0-3 ATS). They’re on a four-game streak of games decided by exactly three points, the longest such streak in program history. That’s not a recipe for covering as a road favorite.
Arizona has revenge on its mind after last year’s 31-7 beatdown in Manhattan. They return 17 starters and rank 15th nationally in returning production. This is a completely different team than the one that struggled last season.
Kansas State vs Arizona Closing Odds
The spread opened at Kansas State -2.5, but sharp money on Arizona drove it down to -1.5. The moneyline shifted from -130 to -119, giving K-State 54.3% implied win probability. The total sits at 54.5 after holding steady.
Our college football betting trends show 60% of the handle on KSU -1.5, but the line is moving the other way. It’s clear the hometown Wildcats are receiving more respected wagers.
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Odds as of 7:00 pm ET, Sept. 12 at Caesars Sportsbook. Claim the best sportsbook promos to bet on Friday night college football.
Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
