NASCAR Bass Pro Shops Night Race Picks, Predictions & Odds (2025)

• Dinger steals the spotlight. AJ Allmendinger starts first while most of the garage are still finding their seats.
• Playoff pressure cooker. Four drivers are dangling over the cutline, and Bristol is ready to turn the heat all the way up.
• Read below for your shortcut to winning with our Best Bet for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race in Bristol!

AJ Allmendinger threw everyone a curveball at Bristol, snagging the pole for Saturday night’s Bass Pro Shops Night Race in his Kaulig Racing Chevrolet. Yep, that wasn’t a typo. Allmendinger. Pole. Bristol. Somewhere, Vegas oddsmakers are scrambling.

Ryan Blaney rolls off second, with Austin Cindric and Ty Gibbs behind him. And don’t forget — this isn’t just any Bristol night race. It’s the Round of 16 cutoff, where four drivers get their tickets punched out of the playoffs.

The green flag drops Saturday, September 13 at 7:30 p.m. ET on USA Network, and 500 laps later somebody’s championship dream is going to be left buried under the Bristol concrete.

NASCAR Bass Pro Shops Night Race Odds

Odds available on DraftKings SportsBook as of September 13, 2025 at 12:00pm. Claim a DraftKings promo code.

Kyle Larson enters as the oddsmakers’ darling, carrying a 25% implied win probability even though he’ll start from the fifth spot. Denny Hamlin isn’t far behind at 20%, with Ryan Blaney lurking at 18.18% after showing plenty of speed in practice.

The real shock, though, is pole-sitter AJ Allmendinger. He opened the week as a 150/1 afterthought, but after putting his tub on the point in qualifying, he’s been slashed all the way to +1800…good for a 5.26% implied chance. That’s not exactly favorite territory, but for a guy who was basically a garage-sale flyer on Tuesday, it’s one heck of a glow-up.

NASCAR Bass Pro Shops Night Race Preview

Bristol Motor Speedway measures just 0.533 miles, but every inch of it is weaponized. The concrete bullring is steeply banked at 24–28 degrees, turning Saturday night’s playoff cutoff race into a full-blown Thunderdome.

Here's how the #NASCARPlayoffs field will line up for the Round of 16 finale at @ItsBristolBaby. pic.twitter.com/W71J4gJ8Br

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) September 12, 2025

The stakes couldn’t be higher: Josh Berry, Alex Bowman, Austin Dillon, and Shane van Gisbergen sit below the cutline, while Austin Cindric, Ross Chastain, Joey Logano, and Chase Elliott are hanging on for dear life as the last four in.

And with Bristol’s history of bent fenders and broken hearts, under the lights is the perfect setting for the playoff picture to get shredded and rearranged in the blender.

NASCAR Bass Pro Shop Night Race Predictions

• AJ Allmendinger over Chase Briscoe (-120, DraftKings)

This matchup only exists because of the massive gap on the qualifying sheets, but hey, free candy is free candy. Our projections peg Allmendinger for a 9.0 average finish compared to Briscoe’s 16.5. The Dinger starts on pole with the best seat in Bristol, Tennessee, while Briscoe will need binoculars just to spot the flagman.

AJ Allmendinger wins the pole at Bristol, his first pole in over a decade (Watkins Glen in August 2015).

This is the first time since 2000 the Cup Series has had three straight pole sitters over 43 years old. pic.twitter.com/6lj3dxZFWC

— NASCAR Insights (@NASCARInsights) September 12, 2025

An exclusive @SpeedwaySteve2 investigation into the proprietary practice numbers also shows Allmendinger near the top, while Briscoe settled in at a very “meh” 17th. Sure, Briscoe will pass some cars—he basically has to when he’s starting behind 75% of the garage. But with passing in the Next Gen car tougher than convincing grandma to switch to streaming, the climb only goes so far.

Briscoe will be under the gun to stay on the lead lap early, and one mistake could nuke his entire evening. The mid-week tire doomsday chatter turned out to be pure hysteria, so we’re not counting on chaos to close the gap. Lay the -120 with the Dinger and let Briscoe’s uphill battle do the heavy lifting.