Buccaneers vs Texans Prediction, Picks & Betting Lines for Monday Night Football

• The Texans are 2.5-point home favorites over the Buccaneers on MNF in Week 2
• Baker Mayfield has committed the third most turnover worthy plays among QB’s since 2024
• See my Buccaneers vs Texans prediction and picks below, plus the latest betting lines for Monday Night Football

It’s a twin bill of NFL action on Monday Night Football, starting with the Buccaneers (1-0, 1-0 away) visiting the Texans (0-1, 0-0 home). Tampa Bay snatched victory from the jaws of defeat in Week 1, while Houston suffered a heartbreaking loss on the road. Online sportsbooks expect the Texans to bounce back, pegging them as small favorites in the latest Monday Night Football odds.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7pm ET from NRG Stadium, in Houston, TX, with ESPN and ABC providing the broadcast coverage.

TB Buccaneers vs HOU Texans Betting Lines

Houston is favored by 2.5-points and -135 on the moneyline. Tampa Bay comes back as a +108 underdog, while the total sits at 42.5, down 3 points from when opening odds were released.

According to the NFL public betting percentages, the Texans are drawing more spread wagers (58%), but slightly less handle (48%) than the Bucs. I’m in line with the ticket count, as I believe there are a few valid reasons to fade this Tampa Bay team.

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Odds as of Sept. 14 at DraftKings. New customers can claim the DraftKings promo code and get a bonus to bet on MNF.

Buccaneers vs Texans Injury Report

Let’s start with the injury concerns for the Bucs. All-Pro left tackle Tristan Wirfs is out, as is star receiver Chris Godwin. To make matters worse, starting right tackle Luke Goedeke missed practice this week with a foot injury, and is questionable for MNF.

Being shorthanded on the offensive line is a recipe for disaster against Houston. The Texans are widely considered one of the top-5 defenses in the league, and feature two top-10 pass rushers in Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. The secondary, led by Derek Stingley Jr., is also one of the best in the NFL, ranking top-5 in opponent yards per attempt and completions in 2024.

Without Godwin, expect another heavy workload for Emeka Egbuka, a rising candidate in the NFL offensive rookie of the year odds. Egbuka had 4 catches for 67 yards in his NFL debut, including 2 TD.

Buccaneers vs Texans Prediction and Picks

• Texans -2.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

Another reason to be bearish on the Bucs is the careless play of Baker Mayfield. He was incredibly sloppy in Week 1, throwing multiple passes that should have been intercepted. Thanks to the stone hands of the Atlanta defenders, Mayfield escaped without a turnover last week, but completed only 53% of his throws for 167 yards.

Sloppy play is nothing new from Mayfield. Since 2024, he ranks third among quarterbacks in turnover worthy plays. He routinely tries to make ultra-aggressive throws, which leads to plenty of interceptions. Mayfield is also no stranger to putting the ball on the ground, and is due for some negative fumble regression. The 30-year-old fumbled a league leading 13 times in 2024, but lost only two of them.

As mentioned, this Houston defense is nothing like the Falcons. They’re going to generate a ton of pressure, and their secondary has the ball skills to make Mayfield pay for his careless decisions.

Baker Mayfield 2024 Stats

On the other side of the ball, the question is can the Texans put some points on the board. Houston didn’t record a touchdown in Week 1 versus the Rams, and fumbled inside the red zone in the final two minutes while driving for the go-ahead score. C.J. Stroud threw for only 188 yards, and Houston averaged just 4.6 yards per play.

The offense lacked explosiveness, something they thrived on last season. The Texans had the eighth highest explosive play rate at 14.4%, and the good news is that the Tampa Bay defense is vulnerable. They yielded plenty of explosives to the Falcons last week, both on the ground and through the air. Atlanta outgained the Bucs by 100 yards and would have won convincingly if they didn’t keep shooting themselves in the foot.

Fortunately for Houston backers, Stroud shredded Todd Bowles’ defense the last time they played. He threw for 470 yards and 5 TD as a rookie, in an epic Texans win. Stroud is one of the best QB’s against the blitz, and sending extra bodies is a staple of the Bowles scheme.

I was not impressed by what I saw from the Bucs in Week 1 against a weak Falcons squad. Houston is a Super Bowl 60 odds longshot, with a high ceiling. I’m laying the 2.5 points with Stroud and Co. as my Buccaneers vs Texans prediction, expecting regression for Tampa Bay, and a bounce back at home from Houston.