Uruguay vs Spain Goalscorer Picks, Match Predictions & Injuries

• A red-hot Spain attacker headlines my Uruguay vs Spain goalscorer picks on Kalshi
• My Uruguay vs Spain predictions favor Spain in a tight, low-scoring Group H finale
• Uruguay’s injury list is brutal, with two key starters out. See all my best bets below

Jump to: PICKS || PREDICTIONS || H2H || INJURIES

Uruguay’s World Cup hangs by a thread in this Group H finale against Spain. La Roja top the group with four points and clinch a Round of 32 spot with a win or a draw. Uruguay, stuck on two points after consecutive draws, essentially needs a win to be sure of advancing. Kickoff is 8:00 p.m. ET on June 26 at Estadio Akron in Zapopan, Mexico.

Spain rolls in unbeaten and yet to concede a goal, leaning on Rodri’s midfield control and teenage star Lamine Yamal, who lit up a 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia. Marcelo Bielsa’s Uruguay counters with Federico Valverde and Darwin Nunez, but the attack is misfiring and the squad is banged up.

Uruguay’s task got harder this week, with reports of locker-room tension and two key starters ruled out. Let’s get to my goalscorer picks, match predictions, and the latest injury news.

Uruguay vs Spain Goalscorer Picks

My Uruguay vs Spain goalscorer picks start with the most dangerous man on the pitch. Spain averages 22 shots per game, and Uruguay is missing the defender who anchors their back line.

Goalscorer Pick: Lamine Yamal (33¢ at Kalshi)

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Kalshi

Lamine Yamal: 1+

33%

Predict

Yamal is fit, expected to start, and coming off a goal against Saudi Arabia. With Ronald Araujo out injured, Uruguay’s defense has already leaked three goals and looks exposed out wide, right where Yamal does his damage. Priced at 33¢ (about +203), he’s my favorite goalscorer play. Prefer a sportsbook number? Score Bet lists him too, so grab the theScore Bet promo code first.

I’d steer clear of the Uruguay goalscorers. Darwin Nunez sits at 15¢ (+567), but La Celeste have wasted chance after chance, and Spain hasn’t conceded a single goal all tournament. That’s a fade for me.

Uruguay vs Spain Match Predictions

My Uruguay vs Spain predictions back the favorite and a low-scoring game. Spain is 61¢ (around -156) on Kalshi, the draw is 25¢, and a Uruguay upset is a 14¢ longshot. That puts Spain near 61%, the draw at 25%, and Uruguay at just 14%.

A $10 bet on Spain returns about $16 total, while that same $10 on Uruguay pays $71.40. Shop the World Cup betting apps for the best number before you bet.

Moneyline Pick: Spain (61¢ at Kalshi)

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Kalshi

Spain

61%

Predict

Luis de la Fuente’s side has the deeper squad and hasn’t conceded a goal yet. Spain controls games with the ball and punishes mistakes. Even needing only a draw, they’ll push to win and lock up top spot. Spain at 61¢ is my anchor.

Total-Goals Pick: Under 2.5 (55¢ at Kalshi)

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Kalshi

Under 2.5 goals scored

55%

Predict

Spain averages two goals a game but grinds teams down with possession rather than chaos. Uruguay is missing Giorgian de Arrascaeta’s creativity and can’t finish. Pair Spain’s clean sheets with Uruguay’s wastefulness and a controlled Spanish win stays under the number for me.

Uruguay vs Spain Head-to-Head History

The Uruguay vs Spain head-to-head history tilts hard toward La Roja. These nations have met five times, with Spain winning three and the other two ending level. Spain holds a 9-4 edge in goals, and Uruguay has never beaten them.

Their last meeting came at the 2013 Confederations Cup, a 2-1 Spain win with Pedro and Roberto Soldado scoring before Luis Suarez pulled one back. Both of their previous World Cup meetings ended in draws, so Uruguay can take a sliver of hope from that history even as the overall record favors Spain.

Uruguay vs Spain Team Stats & Recent Form

The Uruguay vs Spain team stats are a study in efficiency. Both sides dominate the ball, but Spain leads the tournament in shots on target while keeping a clean sheet through two games. Uruguay racks up shots too, yet they’ve drawn both fixtures and conceded three.

The recent form backs the favorite. Spain drew Cape Verde 0-0 before hammering Saudi Arabia 4-0, while Uruguay settled for a 1-1 draw with Saudi Arabia and a 2-2 result against Cape Verde. One team is rounding into shape; the other is leaking points.

Uruguay vs Spain Injury Report

The Uruguay vs Spain injury report is a nightmare for La Celeste. Defensive anchor Ronald Araujo is out with a calf injury that has sidelined him for the entire group stage, with Sebastian Caceres deputizing. Playmaker Giorgian de Arrascaeta is also out with a calf problem, stripping Uruguay of their main creative spark.

To make things worse, reports of locker-room tension under Marcelo Bielsa surfaced just hours before kickoff. Spain, by contrast, is close to full strength, with only forward Victor Munoz listed as doubtful. Lamine Yamal is fit and ready to start, which is bad news for an already-stretched Uruguay back line.