Week 5 College Football Predictions – See Our Early Picks

By Chris Amberley in College Football
Published:

- Week 5 of the College Football season begins Thursday, featuring four matchups between ranked programs
- #13 Ole Miss ranks top-10 in the nation in scoring and total offense
- See my favorite Week 5 College Football predictions, and the best early picks to make
The college football season is on to Week 5, and this upcoming slate is loaded with exciting matchups. Alabama-Georgia and Oregon-Penn State are the headliners, but don’t sleep on the LSU-Ole Miss matchup.
All three top-25 showdowns make my early Week 5 college football predictions, as I see value now that may not be around when the games kickoff.
College Football Week 5 Picks
Odds as of Sept. 22. Check out the top college football betting apps for Week 5.

My favorite Week 5 college football early pick is #13 Ole Miss -2.5 versus LSU, as the Rebels are being undervalued by sportsbooks. I’m also targeting a shootout between #17 Alabama and #5 Georgia, as well as #3 Penn State -3.5 versus #6 Oregon.
LSU vs Ole Miss Prediction
The opening college football Week 5 odds actually had the Rebels laying only 1.5 points, but I’m fine grabbing anything under a field goal. Ole Miss enters play ranked top-10 in scoring, total offense and yards per play. An injury to starting QB Austin Simmons couldn’t slow them down, and there’s argument that they should continue to roll with Trinidad Chambliss even when Simmons is ready to return.
Chambliss has been lights out in two starts throwing for 660 yards, rushing for another 174, and accounting for 5 total touchdowns. He’s yet to commit a turnover, and has the seventh best QBR in the country during that stretch.
The Rebles have put up 30+ points on everyone they’ve faced, earning a road win at Kentucky, and then hanging 41 points on Arkansas and Tulane respectively. Defensively, there are holes, but I’m not convinced the LSU offense can exploit them.
Ole Miss Offensive Stats
The Tigers may be a top-7 National Championship odds contender, but they’re getting way too much love for beating an underwhelming Clemson team, and a Florida program that’s in shambles. In two games against Power 4 opponents they’re averaging only 18.5 points, while future 1st Round Draft Pick Garrett Nusmeier hasn’t eclipsed 238 passing yards since the first week of the season.
- Ole Miss -2.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
Alabama vs Georgia Pick
Alabama and Georgia are typically known for having great defenses, but this year might be the exception. Both enter play outside the top-120 in the country in pass rush, while each program is in the bottom half of the FBS in creating havoc. The Bulldogs just coughed up 41 points to Tennessee, while who can forget the Tide’s season debut when they were shredded by Florida State.
Offensively is where both these teams’ bread is buttered. Georgia is top-13 in scoring and total offense, and number one in red zone conversion rate. Alabama meanwhile, has scored 111 points in their last two games alone, and also ranks top-25 in finishing drives. The last time these two met it was an electrifying 41-34 Bama win, and I’m expecting another shootout on Saturday.
- Alabama-Georgia Over 53.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
Oregon vs Penn State Best Bet
It’s hard to poke holes in either Oregon or Penn State, but I actually believe the Nittany Lions are underrated. To me, this is the best team in the Nation, and they’ll have a chance to prove it against a very good Ducks squad.
Neither program has faced a stiff challenge yet, and both feature Heisman trophy odds contenders at quarterback in Dante Moore and Drew Allar. Oregon and Penn State are both averaging 40+ points per game, while each boasts a stout defense. No team has been stingier on that side of the ball than the Nittany Lions, who enter allowing only 5.5 points per contest.
What sways me towards Penn State is the experience and continuity of the team. The Nittany Lions retained a ton of starters from last season’s College Football Playoff team, ranking near the top in returning production. The Ducks meanwhile, brought in a significant amount of transfers and that group has yet to be tested collectively.
Throw in a prime time atmosphere in Happy Valley and a raucous Nittany Lions crowd, and I expect a Penn State win by margin.
- Penn State -3.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
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Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.