Notre Dame vs Arkansas Prediction, Best Bets & Odds (Saturday, Sep. 27)

• Notre Dame travels to Fayetteville to face Arkansas in CFB Week 5
• The Fighting Irish are 4.5-point favorites over the Razorbacks
• See below for the latest Notre Dame vs Arkansas odds, picks, and CFB best bets

Notre Dame got in the win column last week against Purdue after falling to 0-2 to start the season. With two losses on the season, Notre Dame cannot afford another loss in the CFP chase.

Arkansas blew their lead against Memphis last week and lost outright as 7.5-point favorites. Sam Pittman needs this win badly on Saturday.

The latest college football odds have Notre Dame as a 4.5-point road favorite over Arkansas. Who will cover the spread this weekend?

Keep reading to see my Notre Dame vs Arkansas picks and betting analysis for CFB Week 5.

Notre Dame vs Arkansas Prediction

Both of these teams will be highly motivated heading into this one, and it should be a much better game than most people think. Arkansas is 2-2, but they have been in every game that they have played. Sam Pittman’s seat is getting hotter by the week, so he will do his best to have his team ready to go at home.

Notre Dame started the season 0-2 with losses to Miami and Texas A&M. They got back on track with a 26-point victory over Purdue last week, but their defense still allowed 30 points to the Boilermakers. Their defense has given up over 32 points per game, and they have really struggled to defend the pass. Notre Dame is ranked 125th in defensive pass success rate.

Luckily for Notre Dame, Arkansas’s defense is not much better. They gave up 41 points to Ole Miss and 32 points to Memphis. They cannot stop the run, which is exactly what Notre Dame wants to do. The Fighting Irish offensive line should be able to have their way with Arkansas, and the Hogs have struggled to tackle as well. Memphis just put up 290 rushing yards against this unit.

Quarterback Taylen Green has been incredible for Arkansas. He is throwing for just under 300 yards per game and is rushing for 90 yards per game.

Despite that, I am going to give the edge to Notre Dame. I trust Marcus Freeman much more than Sam Pittman, and running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price will have a heyday against this Arkansas defense. Quarterback CJ Carr has looked efficient and effective running this offense, and he should have no problem moving the ball against the Razorbacks.

Arkansas has not been able to close out games, so even if this game is close late, Notre Dame will find a way to win and cover. Notre Dame is the more likely team to be able to control the clock and sustain drives, and even though their defense has been bad, I still trust them more to come up with a big stop late if needed.

Notre Dame vs Arkansas Pick: Notre Dame -4.5 (-105)

Notre Dame vs Arkansas Odds

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This betting line has moved a lot since the odds were first released. Over the summer, Notre Dame was -12.5. Last week, Notre Dame was -6. Now they are -4.5 against Arkansas.

The total has not moved as much. It opened at O/U 64.5 and has moved down slightly to 63.5. Still, this is a high total for Notre Dame and Arkansas, given their explosive offenses and poor defensive performances thus far.

Notre Dame vs Arkansas Betting Trends

Notre Dame is 1-2 against the spread, getting thier first cover of the season against Purdue last week. Arkansas is just 1-3 against the spread to start the season.

The Fighting Irish are 3-0 to the over this year. In Week 1 against Miami, they barely hit the over of 50.5, but after that, they combined to go over the total by 41 points in Week 2 and by 34 in Week 3.

Arkansas has gone over the total in three straight games. The only time this season that they did not go over the total was in Week 1 when they beat Alabama A&M 52-7. The O/U in that game was 64.5. There is a reason why this game features a high total of 63.5.

Notre Dame has been impressive against unranked teams after losing outright to Northern Illinois last season. The Fighting Irish are 8-0 straight up and 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games vs teams that are not ranked.

Home-field advantage has not been much of a thing at Arkansas of late. Since 2023, the Razorbacks are just 1-9 against the spread at home against FBS teams.