NASCAR Hollywood Casino 400 Predictions, Odds & How to Watch

• “Can Anyone Stop Kyle Larson?” See why he’s the overwhelming favorite at the Hollywood Casino 400
• Playoff Drama Alert: Which drivers are on the playoff bubble—and who’s about to get cut?
• Top NASCAR Bets Revealed: Our expert picks and matchups, including Byron vs. Elliott and Bowman vs. Gibbs.

The NASCAR Playoffs roll into Kansas this weekend for the Hollywood Casino 400—and if it’s named after a casino, we’re at least morally obligated to put a little money on it. The green flag waves Sunday, September 28 at 3 p.m. ET on USA Network, with some big names already lined up at the front.

Chase Briscoe earned his seventh pole of the season and will lead the field to green. He’s joined on the front row by Denny Hamlin, his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate and fellow championship contender. Just behind them, Hendrick Motorsports sends out its own one-two punch with Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott rolling off third and fourth.

His seventh #BuschLightPole of the season!@chasebriscoe will lead the field to green tomorrow at @kansasspeedway. #NASCARPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/qq0ZYEbSmJ

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) September 27, 2025

NASCAR Hollywood Casino 400 Odds

Odds via Bet365 as of 11:16 p.m. ET, Saturday, September 27, 2025. Grab a Bet365 bonus code to wager on NASCAR today.

No surprise here: Kyle Larson is the overwhelming favorite, listed at +250 (implied probability around 29%). That’s a massive number in a 37-car field, but oddsmakers didn’t pull it out of thin air.

Back in May, Larson turned Kansas into his personal test session—he led 221 laps, swept both stages, and won in a rout. If you’re trying to poke holes in his resume, you’ll need a need a drill bit set.

NASCAR Hollywood Casino Race Predictions & Best Bets

Kansas Speedway is your classic 1.5-mile asphalt oval, the kind of place that usually earns the “cookie-cutter” label. The corners feature progressive banking between 17 and 20 degrees, which gives drivers multiple grooves to work with. Translation: somebody’s going to hang it on the high side until their right-rear cries uncle.

Speaking of right-side tires, Goodyear is spicing things up by rolling out a new right-side tire compound designed to create extra wear. The left-sides are familiar, ones the teams have seen before, so the real intrigue is whether Sunday turns into a tire-management chess match or just another round of “who can hold it wide open the longest.”

All hands on deck in the Goodyear building. #NASCAR pic.twitter.com/w3ldLGRO5T

— Noah Lewis (@Noah_Lewis1) September 14, 2025

From a playoff standpoint, this is the only traditional oval in this round, which means it’s the last chance for drivers to get something resembling a “normal” result before next week’s Charlotte Roval turns into Mario Kart with fenders.

The playoff bubble is already messy: Ross Chastain, Austin Cindric, Tyler Reddick, and Bubba Wallace are below the cutline, while Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Chase Elliott, and Chase Briscoe are barely clinging to life above it. Desperation is high, patience is low, and somebody’s going home mad.

So while sportsbooks have their hands full with the NFL slate and the Ryder Cup, we’ll try to sneak in a few NASCAR haymakers they won’t see coming.

Alex Bowman over Ty Gibbs (-114, BetRivers)

BetRivers is currently the only sportsbook brave enough to post matchups at this hour, so if you’re reading this while nursing a late-night cocktail, you can bet it now. If you’re seeing this after a solid night’s sleep, shop around…you might snag a slightly better number.

Longest active top-10 streaks at Kansas

Alex Bowman – 6 races
Christopher Bell – 4 races
Ryan Blaney – 2 races pic.twitter.com/TjknpGAQX9

— NASCAR Insights (@NASCARInsights) September 25, 2025

Our projections have Bowman finishing 10.4 and Gibbs at 17.7. On raw speed metrics, there’s not a ton pointing to Bowman. But hey, we know how to filter outliers and bad data. After some gentle algorithmic massage, the numbers make sense, and we’re willing to wager that, even if it doesn’t make immediate sense to your eyes.

We mentioned last week that Ty Gibbs has a knack for finding creative ways to lose—and, unsurprisingly, he delivered again. Meanwhile, Bowman is the model of consistency (comparitvely), and will be rolling out with the same horsepower that helped Kyle Larson mop the field back in May. Let’s be honest: our algorithm is usually smarter than we are, so we’re going to listen.

William Byron over Chase Elliott (-134, BetRivers)

If you’re looking for numbers that actually make sense, here’s your ticket. Over the second half of the season, Byron’s average green-flag speed sits at 10.0, while Elliott checks in at 14.13. Those aren’t abstract stats—those are actual positions on the track, so yes, they matter, even if the tracks aren’t identical.

A solid run to work with tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/VOGRGL3YPa

— Hendrick Motorsports (@TeamHendrick) September 27, 2025

Our algorithm sees Byron finishing 6.9 and Elliott 9.7 this weekend. Elliott does have a slightly better average finish on cookie-cutter 1.5-mile ovals in 2025 (13.0 vs. 16.8), but Byron dominates in raw speed metrics:

• Fast laps per race: Byron 30.8 vs. Elliott 9.5
• Laps led per race: Byron 100.8 vs. Elliott 12.5
• Average running position: Byron 8.9 vs. Elliott 12.8

Basically, while Elliott might have a tiny edge in manufacturing finishes, Byron’s speed metrics on track give him the clear edge. Betting on him here is putting your faith in performance over mere average finish numbers—and sometimes, that’s exactly the kind of logic that pays off.