Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Game 1 Picks, Prediction, Player Props & Closing Odds

• Max Fried and the Yankees host Garrett Crochet and the Red Sox in Game 1 on Tuesday
• Boston went 9-4 against NYY in the regular season and have won three straight playoff series against the Pinstripes
• See the Game 1 Red Sox vs Yankees picks, player props, and odds for Sep. 30

The Boston Red Sox (89-73, 41-40 away) look to continue a postseason hot streak against the New York Yankees (94-68, 50-31 home) that dates back to their 2004 World Series season. Boston has won all three postseason series against their arch-rivals since then, including the 2018 ALDS and 2021 Wild Card.

The Red Sox have home-field advantage in each of those, however. This year, each game of the best-of-three Wild Card series will be played at Yankee Stadium.

The Yankees opened as -165 favorites to win in the MLB Wild Card series odds. With Boston sending ace Garrett Crochet to the mound in Game 1, the odds are considerably narrower. Boston is as short as +111, while the Yankees are as long as -130. (Full Red Sox vs Yankees Game 1 are at the bottom.) First pitch is scheduled for 6:08 pm ET on Tuesday, Sep. 30.

Jump to: BOS vs NYY Picks || BOS vs NYY Player Props || BOS vs NYY Closing Odds

Red Sox vs Yankees Picks & Prediction for Game 1

• Red Sox moneyline (+115) at BetMGM

Both starting pitchers have ample history against the lineups they’ll be facing on Tuesday (see full pitcher-vs-hitter stats below). Both have solid overall numbers but this season itself has been a mixed bag. Crochet (2.59 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) made four starts against the Yankees in 2025, combining to go 27.1 IP while allowing 10 runs on 20 hits and four walks with a ridiculous 39 strikeouts.

Last time he faced NYY (Sep 14), he went 6.0 innings while fanning 12 batters, but gave up three runs (two homers) in a 6-4 Boston win.

Crochet finished the season second to Dylan Cease in K/9 (11.18) and second to Tarik Skubal in K% (31.3%). His 96.5 mph vFA was tenth-fastest in the majors.

Fried (2.86 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) has made three starts against Boston this season and the most-recent (Sep 13) was by far the worst. He limited the damage to two runs, but gave up nine hits and issued two walks over 5.1 innings (2.06 WHIP).

His first two starts against Boston were much better, going 13.0 IP and allowing just two runs on ten hits and five walks with 16 strikeouts. He also finished the season with two excellent starts (one run on seven hits and three walks over 14.0 IP against the Orioles and White Sox).

One of the main reasons why I’m backing the Red Sox, though, is Fried’s historical struggles in the postseason. A perennial playoff participant with the Braves from 2018 to 2024, Fried has an ugly 5.10 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 67 postseason innings. His most-recent appearance (last year) was horrendous, when he was shelled for five runs on eight hits in just 2.0 innings against the Padres.

Crochet only has 4.0 playoff innings on his resume, all in relief with the White Sox in 2020 and 2021, but he didn’t yield a run. While he was a dominant power pitcher back then, he’s obviously improved over the last three season. The Cy Young odds indicate he’ll finish runner-up to Skubal in this year’s voting.

His last start of the regular season was one of his best, shutting out the AL-best Blue Jays over 8.0 innings, allowing just three hits and no walks. And now he’s had an entire week off to rest.

At the end of the day, I trust Crochet in this spot far more than I trust Fried, which is why I’m targeting the Boston moneyline at plus-money in my Red Sox vs Yankees picks. And as you’ll see below, the Red Sox hitters have slightly better numbers off the New York starter than the Yankee hitters do against Crochet.

Crochet vs Fried: Pitcher-vs-Batter Stats

The Yankees have been limited to a .222 average and .667 OPS in 108 at-bats against Crochet. The Red Sox have a .237 average and .700 OPS in 93 at-bats against Fried.

Yankees Hitters Stats vs Garrett Crochet

Amed Rosario has by far the best numbers against Crochet among the NYY hitters. The 29-year-old saw only sparse action since being acquired from the Nationals in late July, appearing in just 16 games. He may pinch hit but he won’t start. Aaron Judge is only 3-for-15 against Crochet, but two of the hits left the yard.

The stats present plenty of good fade options in tonight’s MLB player props. Trent Grisham, Jose Caballero, Jazz Chisholm Jr, and Jasson Dominguez are a combined 0-for-20 against the Boston ace.

Red Sox Hitters Stats vs Max Fried

The two players who have had the most success off of Fried are Alex Bregman (5-for-13 with a home run and three RBI) and Trevor Story (4-for-15 with two home runs and five RBI). Jarren Duran (0-for-10) is the best fade option in tonight’s player props based on historical stats.

BOS Red Sox vs NY Yankees Player Props (Game 1)

MLB player props as of September 30 at FanDuel.

For prop bettors, Aaron Judge’s total bases prop of 1.5 at plus-money (+107) is intriguing. He has taken Garrett Crochet deep twice in 15 career at-bats. On the other side, Alex Bregman has owned Max Fried, boasting a 1.086 OPS against him. His total bases prop of 1.5 (+135 at FanDuel, and even longer elsewhere) holds significant value given his historical success.

Crochet’s strikeout line is set high at 7.5, but he exceeded that number in three of four starts against NYY in the regular season, including reaching double-digit Ks in each of the last two against New York.

Fried’s strikeout prop is at just 5.5, which is attainable. While some Red Sox hitters have found success, he has also induced swings and misses, particularly against Trevor Story (5 Ks in 16 AB) and Jarren Duran (5 Ks in 10 AB).

BOS vs NYY Prop Picks:

• Crochet over 7.5 Ks (-114) at BetMGM
• Bregman over 1.5 total bases (+151) at Underdog

Red Sox vs Yankees Closing Odds

As of 4:06 am ET, the best available Yankees moneyline had moved from -135 to -132 (BetRivers), while the Red Sox were as long as +120 (bet365). On the runline, New York -1.5 was priced at +170 (or shorter. Boston +1.5 was -190 or shorter.

The run total now ranges from 6.5 to 7.0. Caesars has the best over odds at 6.5 (-120); BetRivers has the best under odds at 7.0 (-127).

The odds in the table above will updated in real time if sportsbooks move the lines before first pitch.

BOS vs NYY Odds Movement

The