Sam Houston vs New Mexico State Prediction, Pick & Odds for Thursday CFB

• Sam Houston battles New Mexico in Thursday CFB action
• The Bearkats are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games
• Check out my Sam Houston vs New Mexico State prediction and all the odds

Lock in your Thursday night college football bets as the Sam Houston Bearkats (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS) meet the New Mexico State Aggies (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS). The Bearkats enter this one as 2.5-point favorites despite being shut out by Texas 55-0 last week, while the Aggies were run over by in-state rival Lobos 38-20.

Dive into my Sam Houston vs New Mexico State prediction, with all the odds, below.

Sam Houston vs New Mexico State Prediction

These Conference USA foes should put on a show on Thursday night. Sam Houston pulled off a 31-11 win over New Mexico State last season, but that was a far more talented Bearkats squad.

Having said that, neither of these offenses instills much confidence, as Sam Houston averages just 4.2 yards per play, and New Mexico State sits at only 4.5.

Plus, the Aggies defense excels at taking away the run, and the Bearkats passing offense has failed to liftoff in 2025. Neither defense is anything to write home about, but the Aggies have eight sacks in four games, and I think these defenses do just enough to keep us under the total.

• Pick: Under 53.5 (-105)

Sam Houston Betting Trends

Sam Houston has yet to win or cover the spread in 2025. A brutal schedule to begin the season has included dates with Western Kentucky, UNLV, Hawaii, and Texas. The Bearkats have lost their four games by an average of 26.5 points per game, and are scoring just 16 points a night.

Senior Hunter Watson leads the way with 396 passing yards, 130 rushing yards and four total touchdowns to go along with two interceptions thus far. But, there’s not much this unit does right, as the Bearkats offense ranks 133rd in the country in EPA per play.

Defensively, the Bearkats are a sieve, sitting in the bottom-20 teams in the nation in points per game, yards per play, third-down conversion surrendered, and yards per pass allowed this season.

Phil Longo’s squad is 131st in EPA allowed against the pass and 128th in total defensive success rate. Teams that take to the gridiron against Sam Houston have had no trouble in moving the football.

Sam Houston has struggled with a ridiculously tough August/September slate. However, the underlying numbers point to a flawed football team that has no business being a road favorite. Additionally, the Bearkats are a brutal 2-9 ATS in their last 11 contests, and have failed to cover the spread in five straight road games.

New Mexico State Betting Trends

New Mexico has at least moved the football, to the tune of 300 yards per game this season. The problem is, the Aggies are scoring just 18 points per game, and averaging a putrid 1.1 yards per rush. Quarterback Logan Fife has been inconsistent while throwing for 1,017 yards, five touchdowns and four interceptions.

While lead running back Kadarius Calloway has rushed 30 times for just 80 yards. Thankfully, wide receiver Donovan Faupel is a legit target. The junior from Riverside, California, has racked up 19 receptions for 274 yards and a touchdown and will be a key part of the gameplan against Sam Houston.

On the other side of the ball, the Aggies are allowing 266 passing yards and 8.8 yards per pass. They sit 118th in the country in EPA per play against the pass. However, New Mexico State’s front seven has shut down opposing rushing attacks, ranking fifth in EPA per rush and 37th in rushing success rate allowed.

With the Bearkats struggles to throw the football, shutting down Sam Houston’s rushing attack will be key to pulling off the upset on Thursday night.

As home dogs, the Aggies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10, as they feast on road favorites like these Bearkats.

Sam Houston vs New Mexico State Odds

Sam Houston are 2.5-point favorites for Thursday night’s contest with New Mexico State in the college football odds. The Sam Houston vs New Mexico State total is sitting at 53.5, with the over favored at -115 and the under coming back at -105.

Bettors are split in this one as 83% of bets are on the Bearkats, but 73% of the money is on the New Mexico State moneyline in the college football public betting splits.

Odds as of October 1st at FanDuel. Find the best college football betting apps for Sam Houston vs New Mexico State.