Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners Odds, Picks & Player Props for ALDS Game 1

• George Kirby and the Mariners host rookie Troy Melton and the Tigers in Game 1 of the ALDS
• Melton was hammered in his first postseason appearance earlier this week
• Below, see Tigers vs Mariners picks, player props to target, and updated DET/SEA odds

For just the second time since 2001, the Seattle Mariners (90-72, 51-30 home) are in the postseason. The AL Central champions start their quest for the franchise’s first World Series title against the Detroit Tigers (87-75, 41-40 away) in Game 1 of the ALDS on Saturday night (5:38 pm PT/8:38 pm ET) at T-Mobile Park.

On paper, the starting-pitcher matchup gives Seattle a huge edge as the M’s hand the ball to George Kirby (10-8, 4.21 ERA, 1.19 WHIP), who was electric in his only previous playoff start, while Detroit is relegated to rookie Troy Melton (3-2, 2.76 ERA, 1.01 WHIP), who was shelled for four runs on three hits in just 0.1 innings in his first postseason appearance against Cleveland on Wednesday.

Among the four LDS Game 1s on Saturday, the Mariners are the biggest favorite on the board (-190 or shorter on the moneyline).

Jump to: ODDS || PITCHER-vs-HITTER STATS || PLAYER PROPS || PICKS

Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers Odds (Game 1)

Seattle is -190 or shorter as of Saturday morning, with the Tigers as long as +180. Without the juice, the moneyline odds give Seattle a 66.6% chance of victory, and Detroit just 33.4%. The run total is as low as 6.5 at ESPN Bet.

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The Mariners are the fourth-favorite in the current World Series odds (+537 on average). The Tigers have the longest odds of the eight remaining teams (+1138 on average).

Starting Pitcher-vs-Batter History: Melton vs Kirby

The main concern for Seattle tonight is Detroit’s history against Kirby, which strongly favors the hitters. In a decent sample size of 70 at-bats, they have crushed the 6’4 righty to the tune of a 1.020 OPS.

Detroit Tigers Career Statistics vs George Kirby

The bulk of the damage has come from two players: Kerry Carpenter (4-for-8 with four home runs) and Jake Rogers (3-for-7 with two home runs and a double).

Javy Baez, Riley Greene, and Wenceel Perez have also gone deep against Kirby in the past.

Seattle Mariners Career Statistics vs Troy Melton

Eugenio Suarez, who spent the first part of the season with the Diamondbacks, is the only Seattle hitter who’s faced Melton, going 1-for-3 with a single.

Melton, also a 6’4 righty, was much better against righties (.553 OPS) than lefties (.658 OPS) in the regular season. That trend held in the postseason when he gave up a home run to switch-hitting Brian Rocchio (from the left side of the plate), a double to lefty Steven Kwan, and another double to lefty Daniel Schneemann.

The good news for Melton is that the M’s biggest bats – Cal Raleigh (60 HR, 24 2B), Julio Rodriguez (32 HR, 31 2B), and Randy Arozarena (27 HR, 32 2B) – are all right-handed hitters.

SEA vs DET Player Props

MLB player props as of October 4 at FanDuel.

George Kirby’s strikeout line is set at a healthy 6.5 with -114 odds each way. He has fanned 26 Tigers hitters in just 70 at-bats, an elite 71.4% K-rate. His outs prop of 17.5 is juiced to the over ((-135) which would require him to get through a full six innings.

Melton’s lines are alarmingly low. His strikeout prop is just 2.5, and his outs prop is a mere 8.5 (less than three full innings). The over on his 1.5 earned-runs prop at +116 is a strong consideration.

Julio Rodriguez over 1.5 total bases at plus-money is also an attractive play against such an inexperienced arm.

Best Tigers/Mariners Prop to Bet: Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 Total Bases

Julio Rodriguez over 1.5 total bases (+120 Fanatics) stands out as the best player prop to bet. While he hasn’t faced Melton before, he generated excellent power numbers in his only previous postseason (2023), mashing three doubles and a triple in just five games.

Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers Picks & Prediction

• Mariners moneyline (-190)
• Over 6.5 runs (-135)

The foundation of my Tigers vs Mariners prediction is the monumental mismatch on the mound. The rested Mariners are sending George Kirby, a proven top-of-the-rotation arm, against a rookie who was blasted in his only postseason appearance. Kirby didn’t have his best regular season but he was dominant in his only previous playoff start (6.0 shutout innings against the Astros in 2022).

The Mariners also boast the superior bullpen (3.72 ERA vs 4.05 ERA) and their relievers are fully rested; Detroit’s bullpen logged 10.1 innings in Games 2 and 3 of the Wild Card on Wednesday and Thursday.

The disparity in talent, experience, and rest is too vast to overlook. The Mariners’ offense has been productive at home (108 wRC+, 9th in MLB) and should have little trouble putting up runs early.

In light of Detroit’s history of success against Kirby, I’m also backing the over, which is as low as 6.5.

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