Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays Predictions, Picks & Player Props to Bet (ALCS Game 1)

• The Toronto Blue Jays host the Seattle Mariners in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series on Sunday
• Toronto sends #1 starter Kevin Gausman to the mound while the Mariners are relegated to #5 starter Brice Miller
• See my Mariners vs Blue Jays picks and predictions for Game 1, plus the best TOR/SEA player props to bet and current odds

Still in search of their first World Series appearance in the 48-year history of the franchise, the Seattle Mariners (90-72, 39-42 away) visit the Toronto Blue Jays (93-69, 54-27 home) in Game 1 of the 2025 ALCS on Sunday, Oct. 12th, at the Rogers Centre (8:08 pm ET).

The Blue Jays, who haven’t been to the Fall Classic since winning back-to-back World Series titles in 1992 and 1993, have the luxury of sending ace Kevin Gausman (3.59 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) to the mound on full rest. After a 15-inning marathon in Game 5 of the ALDS with the Tigers on Friday, Seattle is forced to send #5 starter Brice Miller (5.68 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) to the mound in Game 1 of the best-of-seven series.

The Blue Jays vs Mariners odds favor Toronto taking an early lead in the series. I have set out the current odds in final section of this article. The first two sections contain my Blue Jays vs Mariners picks and the TOR/SEA player props for Game 1.

Jump to: SEA vs TOR Picks || Player Props || Latest Game 1 Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Picks & Prediction

• Blue Jays moneyline (-160)
• Over 8.0 runs (-114)
• Alejandro Kirk over 1.5 total bases (+130)

The pitching matchup is the central story of Game 1. After a quartet of underwhelming postseasons from 2018 to 2023, Kevin Gausman was rock-solid in his first playoff start of 2025, allowing just one run on four hits and two walks over 5.2 IP against the mighty Yankees offense. That pitching performance, coupled with red-hot Toronto bats, staked the Jays to a 1-0 lead in the ALDS against New York and they wouldn’t look back.

On Sunday, Gausman faces another potent lineup, but it’s one that he’s had far more success against compared to the New York hitters, who had historically crushed him. Gausman has held the Seattle lineup to a below-average .692 in a big 135-AB sample size. Cal Raleigh has mashed him for three home runs in just 14 at-bats (1.571). But he’s the only Mariner with an OPS over .950 against the Toronto ace. Julio Rodriguez is just 4-for-17 with a .647 OPS. Jorge Polanco, the extra-innings hero of the ALDS, is 3-for-14 with no extra-base hits (.481 OPS). JP Crawford is a horrendous 3-for-19 with a miniscule .383 OPS.

Toronto’s lineup, on the other hand, has handled the 27-year-old Miller very well, mashing the righty to the tune of a .934 OPS in 39 at-bats. George Springer and Anthony Santander have home runs off the 6’2 righty, while Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Alejandro Kirk each have a double in just three and two ABs, respectively. Miller only has four Ks against the Toronto lineup in those 39 ABs, which is a brutal 10.3% K-rate.

In his lone start against Toronto this season, Miller was blasted for seven runs (all earned) on eight hits and two walks over 5.0 IP. His home/road splits were slightly better outside of Seattle (5.80 home ERA vs 5.56 road ERA), but not enough to think he’ll be able to shrug off his struggles against a Toronto lineup that feasts on home cooking; Toronto has a 120 wRC+ at home, fourth-best in MLB, compared to a solid-but-not-spectacular 105 wRC+ on the road.

One of the only factors weighing against the Jays tonight is the continued absence of Bo Bichette (.311 avg, 44 doubles, 134 wRC+). But the Blue Jays have arguably the deepest bench in all of baseball with Ernie Clement, Davis Schneider, and Kiner-Falefa backing up the middle infield. Clement, in particular, is scorching hot, going 9-for-15 in the ALDS with 1.544 OPS and five RBI. His presence attenuates the loss of Bichette.

Several betting trends strongly support the home team and a high-scoring game. The Blue Jays are an astounding 9-1 in their last ten games as a home favorite and have won their last six straight at the Rogers Centre. The over has hit in each of the last five meetings between these two clubs, a trend that is hard to ignore. The over has also cashed in nine of the Mariners’ last ten road games after a win.

While the Mariners’ bullpen is a formidable weapon, it was also taxed heavily on Friday, and the Blue Jays’ offense has the firepower to build an early lead against Miller. Given Toronto’s dominance at home and the overwhelming trends pointing to a high-scoring affair, the best bets lie with the Blue Jays on the moneyline and the game total going over.

Blue Jays vs Mariners Player Props (Game 1)

MLB player props as of October 12 at FanDuel and DraftKings.

Cal Raleigh presents an intriguing opportunity. The MLB total bases odds list his line at 1.5 (+117), and he has absolutely dominated Kevin Gausman in his career, slugging 1.571 with three home runs in just 14 at-bats. On the Toronto side, Vladimir Guerrero Jr’s total-bases prop is 1.5 (-105). While he only has one hit in four career at-bats against Bryce Miller, he has shown excellent plate discipline with a walk and no strikeouts. He had a home run in three straight games to start the postseason and also had multi-hit games in each of those three, both streaks came to an end when he went 1-for-4 with one RBI and a walk in a series-clinching 6-1 win over the Yankees in Game 4 on Wednesday.

Kevin Gausman’s strikeout line is 5.5 with the over slightly favored at -130. He has a 27.4% K-rate against Seattle’s lineup but his lone regular-season start against Seattle left a little to be desired. He allowed three runs on seven hits over 5.1 IP with only three Ks. That start came in Seattle, though, and he was much better at missing bats while pitching at home (102 Ks in 95.2 IP at home vs 87 Ks in 971. IP on the road).

The under on his hits allowed (4.5 at -141) could be a sneaky play, as he has held key hitters like Julio Rodríguez, Jorge Polanco, and JP Crawford to very low batting averages.

Updated Blue Jays vs Mariners Odds for Game 1

The current SEA/TOR Game 1 odds list the Blue Jays at a market-best price of -160 (Caesars) and the Mariners as long as +140 (bet365). The best price on TOR -1.5 is currently +122 at FanDuel, while bet365 has the best price on SEA +1.5 (-135). The run total is sitting at 8.0 across the board.

SEA vs TOR Odds Movement

The betting market has shown significant confidence in the Toronto Blue Jays since the lines opened. Toronto’s moneyline opened at -130 and has been steamed up to -160, a substantial 30-cent move. This shift suggests that early and heavy money has come in on the home team, forcing oddsmakers to adjust. The MLB public betting splits confirm this, with 74% of moneyline handle backing the Jays.

TOR vs SEA Game 1 Public Betting Splits

The public is heavily backing the Blue Jays, particularly on the runline, where over 80% of bets and handle are on Toronto to win by two or more runs. The moneyline shows a similar, though less extreme, lean.

The total runs market shows overwhelming public support for the over, which aligns with recent head-to-head trends.

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