Tennessee vs Alabama Prediction, Spread & Picks for Week 8 SEC Battle

• Tennessee battles Alabama in a massive Week 8 SEC battle
• The Volunteers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games
• Look for my Tennessee vs Alabama prediction, with the spread and picks, below

No. 11 Tennessee meets No. 6 Alabama in a colossal Week 8 SEC battle this Saturday, October 18th. The Crimson Tide are 8.5-point favorites heading into the “Third Saturday in October” after winning five straight contests, while the Volunteers have won three straight games since falling to Georgia. Tennessee vs Alabama kicks off from Bryant-Denny Stadium at 7:30 pm ET on ABC.

Until then, check out my Tennessee vs Alabama prediction below.

Tennessee vs Alabama Prediction

This one’s simple. Tuscaloosa has historically been a fortress for the Crimson Tide, and until that changes, I’m willing to back Kalen DeBoer’s squad. Alabama owns a 60-39 all-time edge on Tennessee, and they’ve gone 14-7 ATS versus the Vols since 2004.

The last time Tennessee covered in Tuscaloosa was 2016. Josh Dobbs was the Vols quarterback, and most of their players were in middle school. Alabama is also 3-0 ATS at home this season as Bryant Denny Stadium remains their playground.

Further to that, the Volunteers’ defense is nowhere near the level of the Crimson Tide. Tennessee is just 98th in EPA per play and 110th in defensive success rate. As such, Ty Simpson and ‘Bama backs Kevin Riley and Jam Miller will have no problem finding space.

Additionally, Alabama has won 10 straight home games against Tennessee. Roll Tide.

• Pick: Alabama -8.5 (-105)

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Tennessee Betting Trends

Joey Aguilar powers the nation’s third-highest scoring offense as the Volunteers average 43 points per game. Josh Heupel’s offense also sits inside the top-10 in yards, yards per play, and passing EPA per play. Aguilar has led a rebirth in Nashville as the senior gunslinger’s calm demeanor under center has led to 1,680 yards and 14 touchdowns already.

Having said that, Aguilar’s completion percentage dips to 58% against top-10 passing defenses, and Alabama sits at fourth in that category, picking off five balls in their last four games alone. Volunteers receiver Chris Brazzell went for 177 yards and three touchdowns against Georgia and Tennessee will need him to win consistently to stay in this football game.

Over the last five seasons, Tennessee is 6-14 ATS as underdogs, which ranks dead last among FBS teams. Additionally, they’re just 11-27-1 ATS against top-15 foes.

Alabama Betting Trends

While they’re not the Alabama defense of old, the Crimson Tide have suffocated quarterbacks of late, holding opponents to under 200 passing yards in six straight games. Kane Wommack’s defense is 47th against the pass in EPA, but has trouble stopping the run, ranking 74th in rushing EPA per play.

However, DeBoer has the advantage of quarterback Ty Simpson, who’s done a masterful job at taking the mantle under center for the Crimson Tide.

Simpson’s up to 1,678 yards with 16 touchdowns, just one interception and an 81.5 QBR that ranks 16th in the FBS. He’s expertly navigated the pocket and has been elite when kept clean this season.

In fact, Simpson is the favorite in the latest Heisman Trophy odds, with Alabama seeking its fourth straight top-20 win. Simpson’s shown outstanding decision making and will have no problem finding stalwart wideouts Germie Bernard and Ryan Williams against a Tennessee defense allowing 7.5 yards per pass, and over 277 yards per game.

On top of that advantage, the Crimson Tide have covered the spread in six straight home games, and are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 Week 8 contests.

Tennessee vs Alabama Odds

Alabama are 8.5 point favorites over Tennessee in the college football odds. The Tennessee vs Alabama total is sitting at 59.5, with the under favored at -115 and the over coming back at -105.

Moneyline bettors love the Crimson Tide as 91% of wagers are on Alabama in that market. However, those who bet on the spread like Tennessee at +8.5, with 64% of bets on the Volunteers to cover in the college football public betting splits.

Odds as of October 17th at FanDuel. Check out the best college football betting apps for Tennessee vs Alabama.