South Alabama vs Georgia State Prediction, Best Bet & Odds (Thursday, Oct. 23)

• South Alabama meets Georgia State in Thursday night CFB action
• The Jaguars are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games
• Dive into my latest South Alabama vs Georgia State prediction, plus the odds below

South Alabama and Georgia State go to war in Thursday night college football week 9 action. The Jaguars dropped a 15-14 decision at home to Arkansas State last week, while Georgia State was smacked in a 41-24 loss to Georgia Southern.

With both teams sitting at 1-6 to start the year, each squad will go into this one aiming to build some momentum for the stretch run. Catch all the action over on ESPN 2 at 6:30 when this one kicks off from Center Parc Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.

Until then, check out my South Alabama vs Georgia State prediction and all the odds below.

South Alabama vs Georgia State Prediction

Making my South Alabama vs Georgia State prediction comes down to one clear edge. The Georgia State defense is one of the worst units in all of college football, giving up more points per game than any team in the nation.

While South Alabama’s defense has been inconsistent, they excel at shutting down opposing passing attacks, which bodes well against a Panthers offense that throws the ball at the fourth-highest rate in the country. The Jaguars allow just 6.3 yards per pass attempt, creating the perfect matchup nightmare for Georgia State.

My prediction: South Alabama controls this game and covers the 6.5-point spread with a low-scoring victory on Thursday night.

• Pick: South Alabama -6.5 (-110)

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South Alabama Betting Trends

Expect to see South Alabama lean heavily on its rushing attack. The Jaguars run the ball on over 60% of snaps (10th in the nation), for 199 yards per game (20th) on 4.5 yards per rush (43rd).

Major Applewhite’s squad is an impressive 37th in EPA per rush in the FBS, which allows the Jags to stay ahead of the chains as they rank 40th in average third-down distance, and are converting nearly 40% of those opportunities.

Running back Kentrel Bullock leads the way with 560 yards and six touchdowns on the year, while quarterback Bishop Davenport has thrown for nine touchdowns and just four interceptions.

Defensively, the Jaguars have given up over 30 points and 376 yards per game. However, they’ve been good at getting off the field on third-downs, ranking 60th in opponent third-down conversions. Plus, South Alabama has been excellent against the pass, allowing just 6.3 yards per play and 177 passing yards per game, which both rank in the top-25 in the country.

Intriguingly, the under has hit in eight of South Alabama’s last nine road games.

Georgia State Betting Trends

Georgia State’s atrocious defense is its Achilles heel. Unequivocally one of the worst units in all of college football, the Panthers are among the worst in the nation in stopping the opposition. In fact, Dell McGee’s team gives up the most points in the FBS.

Georgia State Defensive Stats

This defense can’t stop a nosebleed. The Panthers allow opponents to rush for 5.7 yards per play, and 223 yards per game, both good for 130th in the country. They’re also giving up a wild 8.7 yards per pass. In short, Georgia State’s defense is an absolute sieve, and can’t be relied upon to slow down even the most putrid offensive attacks.

As such, the South Alabama vs Georgia State total sits at 55.5, with the over hitting in six of the Panthers’ last nine games. Having said that, Georgia State are 6-0 ATS in their last six games against South Alabama, and 4-1 SU in their last five.

South Alabama vs Georgia State Odds

The South Alabama vs Georgia State total sits at 55.5 with the under favored at -115 and the over at -105. The Jaguars are 6.5-point favorites in the latest college football odds.

According to the college football public betting splits, 87% of bets are on the South Alabama moneyline, with 92% of the money coming in on the Jaguars.

Odds as of October 22nd at FanDuel. Look for the best college football betting apps for South Alabama vs Georgia State.