UFC 321 Predictions: Aspinall vs Gane Picks & Best Bets for Entire Card

• Saturday’s UFC 321 features two title fights headlined by Tom Aspinall defending against Ciryl Gane
• Aspinall enters as the -355 favorite with finishing odds at -125 for KO/TKO
• Check out my UFC 321 predictions for Aspinall vs Gane and more

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The UFC is back with a stacked pay-per-view card this Saturday, October 25th. Tom Aspinall puts his heavyweight title on the line against Ciryl Gane in a matchup that should answer questions about the division’s future. Online sportsbooks have Aspinall as a significant favorite at -355, but the real value lies in the method of victory props and some sneaky undercard plays.

Saturday’s UFC 321 card gets started at 7:15 AM PT with early prelims on UFC Fight Pass, prelims at 8:15 AM PT on ESPN+, and the main card at 11:15 AM PT on ESPN+ PPV.

Here are my UFC 321 picks and predictions for the fights where it makes sense to bet.

Aspinall vs Gane Prediction

Tom Aspinall has never needed more than two minutes to finish a fight recently, and I don’t see that changing against Ciryl Gane.

The Frenchman’s grappling is still his weak point; Jon Jones took him down once and made him tap out in two minutes. Francis Ngannou controlled him on the ground. These aren’t good signs heading into a fight with the fastest, most explosive heavyweight grappler in the division.

Gane’s striking is top-notch when he can keep his distance, but his pocket exits are all over the place. He dips his head, moves laterally with his chin exposed, and generally looks uncomfortable when pressured. He was knocked down in the second round against Tai Tuivasa and looked weak at times against Alexander Volkov.

Now he faces someone with faster hands than both those guys combined.

Tale of the Tape

The difference in speed is what kills Gane here. Aspinall’s hand speed at heavyweight is unlike anything else. He throws combinations that a man who weighs 260 pounds should not be able to do. He also fakes all the time, which will throw off Gane’s timing and distance control.

I see this playing out one of two ways: Aspinall stings Gane on the feet, shoots a perfectly timed double leg, and either pounds him out or locks up a submission. The other scenario? He drops Gane with a counter as the Frenchman tries one of those sloppy pocket exits. Either way, this should end early.

• UFC 321 Pick: Aspinall Inside the Distance (-125)

Dern vs Jandiroba 2 Prediction

The co-main event is a rematch for the strawweight title between Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba. Jandiroba was in charge of the grappling in their first fight, but Dern has changed since then. She is throwing harder on her feet, has better cardio, and most importantly, she is dangerous from every position on the ground.

Jandiroba is 36 years old and has only fought five rounds once, eight years ago. That matters against someone as active as Dern, who is always looking for submissions and sweeps from the bottom.

In every grappling exchange, Dern threatens something. This not only tires opponents but also influences judges even when she’s on her back.

Tale of the Tape

The striking edge actually goes to Dern here. She’s not technical, but she sits down on her punches and can hurt opponents. Jandiroba lacks knockout power and won’t be able to keep Dern honest with her hands.

That means Dern can be aggressive, push forward, and force the kind of chaotic fight that favors her skill set.

I predict this goes the distance because Dern is aggressive and has big moments that will sway the judges. The younger fighter has a better chance in the championship rounds.

• Dern vs Jandiroba Pick: Dern by Decision (+240)

Nurmagomedov vs Bautista Prediction

The fight between Umar Nurmagomedov and Mario Bautista might be the most one-sided on the main card. The oddsmakers have it right with Umar at -625. This is as close to free money as you’ll find in MMA betting, though the juice makes it tough to play straight.

Bautista has solid boxing and decent takedown defense, but Umar is simply operating on a different level. His kicking game is diverse, his wrestling is suffocating when he needs it, and his fight IQ is off the charts.

He's back! Umar Nurmagomedov shows off his speedy kicks at #UFC321 open workouts. pic.twitter.com/lMN5HaJmxg

— MMA Junkie (@MMAJunkie) October 22, 2025

Bautista’s best wins, like the one over Patchy Mix, have not aged well. Meanwhile, Umar almost beat the current champion, Merab Dvalishvili, in their three-round match.

The main thing to watch is whether Bautista’s toughness will take the fight to a decision. I believe it will. Umar doesn’t chase finishes recklessly, and Bautista is durable enough to survive even when hurt.

• UFC 321 Prediction: Umar by Decision (-170)

Volkov vs Almeida Prediction

Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida is a classic fight between a striker and a grappler. Almeida is the favorite at -198, but I am not sure he can handle Volkov’s improvements.

Almeida struggles if he can’t take the fight to the ground early, as we saw in his match with Curtis Blaydes. Volkov, on the other hand, has added size, improved his takedown defense, and uses strong body kicks to wear down opponents. His jab is one of the best in the division, and he’s learned to use his long reach to keep his distance.

If Almeida can’t secure a takedown in round one, this fight tilts heavily toward Volkov. The Russian’s body work and volume should break Almeida down for a late stoppage.

• Volkov vs Almeida Pick: Volkov by KO/TKO (+400)

Rakic vs Murzakanov Prediction

This light heavyweight bout between Aleksandar Rakic and Azamat Murzakanov is essentially a pick ’em at -108/-112. That screams value on Rakic, who has the tools to control this fight from distance.

Murzakanov is explosive and dangerous early, but he’s giving up 6.5 inches in reach and stands just 5’10” at light heavyweight. Rakic’s leg kicks are devastating, his footwork is solid, and he knows how to win rounds without taking risks. This is the kind of fight where Rakic can “stink it up” if needed – circling, kicking, and avoiding exchanges.

The Austrian looks fresh after recently moving to a new camp. In my UFC 321 predictions, I predict Rakic will win two rounds with his technical kickboxing and then get a decision.

• Rakic vs Murzakanov Pick: Rakic by Decision (+200)

Best of the Rest

Looking at the prelims, there’s serious value scattered throughout this UFC 321 card:

Ikram Aliskerov (-238) should be able to beat Jun Yong Park without too much trouble. Park throws a lot but lacks the power to stop opponents, while Aliskerov is an explosive finisher who can end fights with one shot. This is a parlay anchor.

Jaqueline Amorim (-425) against Mizuki Inoue looks like a Round 1 submission. Inoue hasn’t been in the cage since 2023, and her takedown defense is shaky at best. Amorim’s been running through opponents with armbars and rear-naked chokes. That submission prop at +175? Worth a sprinkle.

Jose Delgado (+120) as an underdog against Nathaniel Wood is my upset special. Wood is undersized for featherweight and has been hurt in fights he has won. Delgado has power, especially with knees to the middle, and he could catch Wood as he moves forward.

UFC 321 Odds – Full Card

Main Card

Prelims

Early Prelims

Odds as of October 25th at DraftKings. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC 321 on Saturday.

In terms of the UFC 321 odds, the biggest movement has been on the Dern fight. She opened at -135 and has been bet up to -155 as money pours in throughout fight week. That’s usually a good sign, especially when the line moves against a proven veteran like Jandiroba.

Meanwhile, sharp money looks split on Volkov vs. Almeida. Volkov opened as a slight underdog but is now sitting at +164, indicating the public is all-in on Almeida’s wrestling. I’ll happily take the plus money on Volkov’s improved takedown defense and superior gas tank.

Best Bets Recap for UFC 321

When Saturday’s dust settles, here are my top UFC 321 predictions that offer the best value:

• Aspinall Inside the Distance (-125)
• Dern by Decision (+240)
• Umar by Decision (-170)
• Volkov by KO/TKO (+400)
• Rakic by Decision (+200)
• Parlay: Aspinall + Ikram Aliskerov (-120)

The parlay of Aspinall and Aliskerov gives us two strong favorites who should handle business without laying massive chalk. For those looking for a long shot, Volkov by late knockout at +400 is my favorite dog play on the card. His body work against a fading Almeida could produce fireworks in rounds two or three.