NASCAR Xfinity 500 Odds, Predictions & Picks for Martinsville

• NASCAR Xfinity 500 odds: Byron favored at +350, Elliott +500, Hamlin +600
• Xfinity 500 predictions: Pole position and pit stall advantage give Byron the edge
• Our Xfinity 500 picks: Byron Championship futures and Larson top-5 finish

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The NASCAR Xfinity 500 at Martinsville decides the final two Championship 4 spots. Our Xfinity 500 odds, predictions, and picks target William Byron’s pole advantage and Kyle Larson’s consistency.

Christopher Bell (+37) and Kyle Larson (+36) control their destiny, while William Byron, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, and Chase Elliott need wins to advance.

NASCAR Xfinity 500 Odds

* Odds available on October 25th at 5:00am ET on BetRivers Sportsbook. Browse the top US betting sites for NASCAR betting.

William Byron enters tomorrow as the favorite at +350, implying a win probability of 22.2%. Chase Elliott sits second at +500, with an implied probability of 16.7%, while Denny Hamlin rounds out the top three at +600, implying a 14.3% chance to take the checkered flag.

NASCAR Xfinity 500 Predictions

Martinsville Speedway is the riddle we’re trying to solve this weekend. It’s a 0.526-mile asphalt short track with only 12 degrees of banking in the corners — a glorified paperclip that’s been tormenting drivers and crew chiefs for decades.

We’ll be working off a mix of speed metrics this week, but starting position, long-run pace, and pit crew efficiency will carry the most weight.

This is where our playoff drivers will start their day.

Who are you keeping your eyes on? pic.twitter.com/YvhEZl29OG

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) October 25, 2025

Passing in this generation of Cup car is about as easy as changing lanes on the Jersey Turnpike at 5 p.m., and tire falloff is almost nonexistent. If you don’t qualify up front, you’re basically praying for chaos.

William Byron gave himself the best shot at survival by grabbing the pole, which also comes with first pick of pit stalls — a massive edge in a race where every inch of track position matters.

Ty Gibbs joins him on the front row, with Kyle Larson third, Joey Logano fourth, and Denny Hamlin fifth. Chase Elliott will start eighth, Chase Briscoe ninth, Christopher Bell 12th, and Ryan Blaney all the way back in 31st.

NASCAR Xfinity 500 Picks

• William Byron to win the NASCAR Championship (+2200, DraftKings/Bet365)

Have you ever made a bet you didn’t actually think would win?

This is that. But hear me out — we’re math guys, and this one falls squarely in the nerd category… which, unfortunately, we also are.

William Byron enters Martinsville as the race favorite thanks to his pole position and the overpowered No. 1 pit stall. Barring incident (heh), Byron should be mixing it up at the sharp end of the stick all afternoon.

William Byron wins the pole at Martinsville with fastest speed seen there since October 2016 (19.286 seconds)

This is the first pole for Hendrick Motorsports since Kansas in May, ending their longest drought without a pole since 2006 (20 races) pic.twitter.com/OErLEJK3gj

— NASCAR Insights (@NASCARInsights) October 25, 2025

And he’ll definitely need to win to keep his Championship aspiration and our ticket alive.

“But Phil, why don’t I just bet his race win number?”

Glad you asked, imaginary friend who reads fine print. Let’s say Byron does win. His Cup Championship odds will immediately plummet to around +400 — maybe shorter, because sportsbooks are mostly criminal enterprises with nice logos.

Suddenly, you’re sitting on a +2200 ticket that:
A) gives you the best number in the market,
B) beats what a rollover parlay would return, and
C) gives you a hedge position that guarantees profit regardless of outcome.

This isn’t a “Byron’s our guy” play. It’s a pure numbers grab — the kind of boring, sensible wager that wins you respect from the analytics crowd and side-eye from your buddies. Put it on the radar.

• Kyle Larson to finish inside the Top-5 (+100, Bet365)

You may have noticed this is a slightly different number than the one posted above. Nice, right?

Some markets have populated while I was typing, and we’re happy to grab a few extra cents. Plus, winning a wager with a plus sign in front of it just makes us feel smarter.

Besides being the love of my wife’s life, Kyle Larson is our second-rated driver, and we’ve got a predicted finish of 4.6. That’s less than five, so…value!

Kyle Larson wants Christopher Bell as far away as possible, but he knows he's asking for too much👀 pic.twitter.com/cCpAvl9HKF

— Sportskeeda NASCAR (@NASCARatSK) October 25, 2025

On comparable short tracks in 2025, Larson owns the fourth-best average running position (8.6) and the third-most laps inside the top 15 (86.9%).

He had a solid qualifying effort, and with Byron and Elliott as teammates, we like the overall speed of the Hendrick camp.

His pit crew is also ranked numero uno on short tracks this season. Not the full season — just the shorties. Wild, right? Who knew that was even a stat?

The tight pit boxes at Martinsville make this stat meaningful…and he’s number one.

Larson hasn’t hit Victory Lane as often as he’s used to, but Martinsville is the perfect place for a strong finish. He was third here in the fall last season and fifth in the spring.

Look at the last three seasons of Martinsville: Larson ranks third in laps led (37.4), second in average running position (6.5), and first in average finish (3.4).

That’s actionable, baby.

The Road to Martinsville

Good grief. We were so close to the SportsBettingDime head brass erecting a bronze statue of the @SpeedwaySteve2 duo. Then Kyle Larson ran out of gas on the backstretch…from the front row..one the last lap of a Talladega overtime finish.

But “almost” doesn’t get us paid. In this case, “almost” just pushed our retirement date back by a week.

Who are we kidding? It’s not like we have anything better to do than write about NASCAR anyway. So, we’ll try again.

Chase Briscoe punched his ticket to the Championship 4 with a thrilling win on the Alabama high banks, joining Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Denny Hamlin at the table.

Two more seats remain for the taking among their five other worthy adversaries…plus Joey Logano.

For those four, there’s only one path forward: win and you’re in.

If any of them pull off that miracle, we’ll have a Bell vs. Larson showdown for the final ticket to Phoenix. Oh, the drama.