Oklahoma vs Alabama Preview Week 12: Odds, Prediction & Expert Pick

• Alabama looks for their seventh-straight win when they host Oklahoma 
• The Sooners are looking to avoid their third loss of the season when they play the Crimson Tide
• See our Oklahoma vs Alabama Preview Week 12: Odds, Prediction & Expert Pick

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Remember when Alabama lost in Week 1 at Florida State and everyone was ready to write them off? Since that opening stumble, the Crimson Tide have flipped the script, rattling off seven straight wins and putting themselves right back into the thick of things. They’ll look to keep it rolling on Saturday when they host the Oklahoma Sooners.

Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET at Bryant–Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, with coverage on ABC.

Week 12 at Alabama

📍 Tuscaloosa, Ala.
🕝 2:30 PM CT
📺 ABC pic.twitter.com/3OAyPAaAwq

— Oklahoma Football (@OU_Football) November 10, 2025

Let’s dive into our Oklahoma vs Alabama Preview Week 12: Odds, Prediction & Expert Pick

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Oklahoma vs Alabama Odds

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook as of Nov. 10 at 3:00 p.m. ET. Join the fun with a Caesars promo code.

Across the betting market, Alabama is listed as a 6.5-point favorite, which is where this line opened and has remained. The total has seen a slight adjustment, dropping from 46.5 to a consensus 45.5.

Alabama is 8-1 straight up and 6-2-1 against the spread this season. In their games, they’ve stayed under the total in five of nine matchups. On the other side, the Sooners are 7-2 SU and 4-4-1 ATS, and a majority of their games have been more defensive-heavy, with seven of their nine contests finishing under the total.

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Sooners vs. Crimson Tide Prediction

Ty Simpson continues to impress each week. The Alabama junior has thrown for over 2,460 yards with a 21-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, but he’ll face one of his toughest matchups to date. Brent Venables’ defense ranks first in defensive success rate and 16th in EPA per play allowed. The Sooners are seventh in both yards per play (4.2) and total yards allowed per game (264.2), and they’re giving up just 15.5 points per game – eighth-best in the country.

These back-to-back throws from Ty Simpson 🔥 pic.twitter.com/QmgzLTUobr

— Jordan Reid (@Jordan_Reid) November 9, 2025

But this will be just as challenging for Oklahoma’s defense. Alabama ranks fourth in offensive EPA per play and averages 32.8 points per game. The weakness for the Tide has been the run game, where they sit 128th in rush success rate and 101st in rush EPA. Unfortunately for them, that aligns with the strength of Oklahoma’s defense — the Sooners are first in run success rate allowed and second in EPA per rush.

The passing matchup is where things get more competitive. Simpson has this offense fourth in EPA per pass and seventh in pass success rate. As usual, Alabama’s offensive ceiling is tied directly to how well he executes.

On the other side, things are far less certain. Junior quarterback John Mateer started the season strong, but since returning from his mid-season injury – starting with the Red River Rivalry – his production has dropped. Over his last four games, he’s averaging 18.5 completions on 31 attempts for 183.5 yards per game (59.7%), with a 2-to-4 touchdown-to-interception line. Now he draws an Alabama defense that ranks 25th in EPA per pass and 26th in pass success rate allowed.

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Oklahoma Sooners vs Alabama Crimson Tide Expert Pick

I have a lot of respect for this Oklahoma defense, and in most situations I wouldn’t be in a hurry to go against them. However, with the way Ty Simpson is playing, it’s hard to justify fading Alabama here. Regardless of what Venables throws at him structurally, Simpson has shown the ability to adjust and make plays, especially with the skill talent around him.

“They're good at that. Number one and number two, we're changing everything. So if Coach Venables is listening, just know they're all changing.”

Alabama OC Ryan Grubb on Lane Kiffin previously stating Oklahoma’s defense was playing like they knew their opponents’ signs. pic.twitter.com/fZlLrj6fPI

— Touchdown Alabama (@TDAlabamaMag) November 10, 2025

On the other side, Mateer hasn’t shown much since returning from his injury. He’s been able to get by largely because of how strong his defense has been, and that safety net likely won’t be there in a raucous environment like Tuscaloosa.

I expect this game to be competitive for a good portion of the afternoon, but ultimately, Alabama should find a way to win by at least a touchdown. It’s essentially a must-win for Oklahoma to stay alive in the playoff picture – and as the saying goes, if it’s a must-win, then you must not be very good.

I’ll lay the points with the Tide on Saturday.

Best Bet: Alabama -6.5 (-110)