Judge vs Raleigh AL MVP Odds Show Clear Frontrunner

• Aaron Judge is a massive favorite to win the AL MVP over Cal Raleigh
• Raleigh finished with more home runs and RBI, but Judge was better in nearly every other statistical category
• Keep reading for betting analysis and advice for the AL MVP market

The AL MVP market was a two-horse race this season. Now, just two days before the award will be handed out, it’s turned into a one-man show. Last year’s winner, Aaron Judge, is on the verge of repeating, thanks to another incredible season.

Judge was a sizeable favorite when AL MVP odds were pulled from commercial sportsbooks, and Kalshi has now pegged him as a virtual lock.

AL MVP Odds

Kalshi makes Judge a 97% favorite to win the award over Cal Raleigh. In sports betting math, that positions Judge as a -3233 favorite. That means if you bet $1 on Judge to win AL MVP, you’d return just 3 cents. That kind of payout obviously doesn’t justify the risk, as you’d need to put down $3233 just to win $100.

Raleigh’s odds, meanwhile, translate into +1567. The Mariners catcher was a favorite in this market as late as September 26th, which makes his current price seem too good to be true. For context, Raleigh was +220 to win AL MVP when the markets closed, which begs the question: what happened?

Odds as of Nov. 11 at Kalshi. New customers can claim the Kalshi promo code and get a bonus to bet on MLB futures.

Judge vs Raleigh AL MVP Debate

The most obvious reason for the dramatic price move is that there’s been a leak. The award won’t officially be announced until Thursday, but it certainly appears some bettors have inside AL MVP odds info. Big buys started pouring in on Judge beginning Monday, moving him from a 75% favorite on Kalshi to 97% over the course of 24 hours.

To add intrigue, while this was going on, MLB was publishing stories about how razor-thin the race between Raleigh and Judge was. Front office executives were reportedly split on Raleigh and Judge when polled in late September. Raleigh backers will point to his phenomenal power numbers, all while spending the majority of his games playing catcher, baseball’s toughest position.

Raleigh’s 60 home runs were the most ever by a catcher and by a switch-hitter. It also broke the Mariners franchise record, and he’s looking to become the first Seattle player to win MVP since Ichiro Suzuki in 2001. He helped lead the Mariners to within 8 outs of their first World Series appearance, but as impressive as his season was, it pales in comparison to Judge’s.

Aaron Judge vs Cal Raleigh 2025 Stats

Judge may have hit 7 less home runs, and driven in 11 fewer runs, but he was the most dangerous player in the American League. He bested Raleigh in virtually every other statistical category, including hits, average, runs, extra-base hits, runs created, walks, OBP, slugging, OPS+, WAR, win probability added, and situational wins added, to name a few.

Perhaps the biggest indicator of how much opposing pitchers fear Judge is his intentional walks number. Judge was issued 36 intentional walks in 2025, which was more than the entire total of any other team in baseball. Raleigh was better in two statistical categories and played a tougher position, but the gap between Judge and Raleigh in every other metric tips the scales in favor of the Yankees slugger.

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Judge vs Raleigh AL MVP Betting Advice

All signs are pointing to Judge joining an exclusive group of three-time MVP’s. Ultimately, the BBWAA will have the final say after their votes are cast, but there’s no way a market would move this drastically without insider info.

Which is why this race is a stay away for me in terms of betting. You simply cannot wager on Judge at such short odds, and any bet on Raleigh now feels like lightning money on fire. His phenomenal season at and behind the plate turned the Mariners into a World Series odds contender, and in any other year might have been good enough to win MVP. Unfortunately, he just ran into a superhero.

Judge’s out-of-this-world combination of power and efficiency is simply too much to overcome, and will propel him to his third MVP in four seasons. Pat yourself on the back if you locked in Judge at a reasonable price; otherwise, sit this one out like yours truly.