Michigan State vs Kentucky Odds, Picks & Predictions (Nov 18)

• Kentucky looks to avoid its second loss of the season when the Wildcats face Michigan State at MSG
• The Spartans are 3-0 with a top-25 victory already on their resume
• See the Michigan State vs Kentucky picks, predictions, and latest odds for Nov. 18

The #12 Kentucky Wildcats (3-1, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U) face the #17 Michigan State Spartans (3-0, 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U) at the State Farm Champions Classic at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday night in an early-season litmus test for both sides. MSU vs UK will tip-off at 6:30 pm ET on ESPN, and will be followed by #24 Kansas vs #4 Duke.

Kentucky entered the season rated #1 at KenPom but have already fallen to #4 thanks to a 96-88 road loss at rival Louisville. The Spartans are a perfect 3-0 including a win over then-#14 Arkansas, but still rate just 31st at KenPom. Mark Pope’s Wildcats head into Tuesday night as sizeable favorites in the Michigan State vs Kentucky odds.

Michigan State vs Kentucky Odds

As of 11:05 am ET, the best Kentucky moneyline is sitting at -190 (at bet365). The longest odds on a Michigan State win are now +172 (at FanDuel). The point spread ranges from UK -4.0 to -5.0. MSU ATS bettors should take +5.0 (-110) at Caesars while Kentucky ATS bettors should take -4.0 (-110) at bet365.

There is also a one-point range in the game total. FanDuel has the best number for over bettors at O 152.5 (-115). Under bettors can get 153.5 (-110) at bet365.

Odds commentary as of 11:05 am ET. The lines in the table will update automatically with the best-available price for each market if the college basketball odds shift before tipoff.

MSU vs UK Betting Splits

The college basketball public betting data shows the vast majority of both ATS and moneyline handle on the Wildcats. Kentucky is currently getting 74% of money bet against the spread and 89% of moneyline handle.

Despite these lopsided numbers, the line has actually moved a little towards the public over the last 12 hours. UK opened as a 5.5-point favorite and -238 on the moneyline.

Reverse-line movement is often a sign that sharp money is on the opposite side, in this case the Spartans.

Michigan State vs Kentucky Picks & Predictions

ATS Pick: Michigan State +4.5 (-110) at FanDuel

Kentucky has only faced one team rated in the top 250 at KenPom this season (10th-rated Louisville) and they were outclassed from almost the opening tip, falling behind 32-22 early and never threatening the lead thereafter in a 96-88 road loss.

Michigan State is an absolutely massive team and it’s showed up on the glass already this season. The Spartans rank fifth nationally in O-Reb% and 16th in D-Reb%. In their narrow 69-66 home win over Arkansas, they finished +12 on the glass and +18 in points-in-the-paint.

Kentucky isn’t undersized, by any means, but they don’t shoot well from the outside: they are 142nd nationally in three-point percentage (34.2%) compared to first in two-point percentage (66.2%). This is a team that needs to be thriving down low, both in terms of scoring and rebounding, in order to play up to its potential. A +2 rebounding edge against Louisville wasn’t enough, thanks in large part of a -8 turnover disparity.

In essence, Michigan State is well positioned to counter Kentucky’s strengths. Tom Izzo’s team is also stacked with veterans from a team that went 30-7 last year and earned a #2 seed in the tournament. Jeremy Fears, Coen Carr, and Jaxon Kohler all played over 50% of minutes for MSU last season, while Carson Cooper wasn’t far behind (42.1%).

In contrast, UK has just one player back who played over 50% of minutes last season: senior guard Otega Oweh (13.0 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.0 APG), a preseason contender in the Wooden Award odds who’s off to a relatively slow start. Oweh was an ugly 4-of-13 from the field in the loss to the Cardinals, committing five turnovers before eventually fouling out.

UK nabbed a couple solid transfers and has a solid freshman class, but it’s by no means overwhelming. Mark Pope’s top recruit was ESPN #18 Jasper Johnson. The freshman PG has averaged just 17.5 minutes through four games, with 7.0 PPG, 2.0 RPG, and 4.0 APG.

There isn’t a big enough talent discrepancy for Kentucky to be a 4.5-point favorite against a veteran-laden Michigan State team that’s coming off an Elite Eight run. I’d take a hard look at the MSU moneyline, as well.