By Brady Trettenero in College Football
Published:
Tuesday’s MACtion opener features Akron heading to Doyt Perry Stadium to face Bowling Green, with online sportsbooks expecting a defensive grind in the latest college football odds.
The Zips (3-8) bring Ben Finley fresh off a 424-yard passing performance against Kent State. The Falcons (6-5) counter with uncertainty at quarterback after cycling through four different signal-callers during their current skid. Perfect weather conditions mean this game comes down to execution, not elements.
Kickoff is set for 7 pm ET from Bowling Green, OH, with ESPNU providing the coverage.
My Akron vs Bowling Green prediction starts with the massive red flag at quarterback for the Falcons. Both Drew Pine (ankle) and Lucas Anderson (undisclosed) are questionable. These two have taken 90-95% of all snaps this season.
Even when healthy, neither quarterback has been effective. Both carry negative TD-INT ratios and average under 6 yards per pass attempt. That’s brutal production from your passing game. The Falcons have scored just 37 total points in their last three home games combined.
Bowling Green has lost six of their last seven straight up and failed to cover in five of their last six. They’re not just losing – they’re getting beat convincingly. Now they might be down to their third-string quarterback against a desperate Akron team.
The Zips struggle too, converting just 31.4% on third down. But they move the ball between the 20s, and Marcel Williams just exploded for 206 yards against Kent State. The Falcons’ secondary allows 7.83 yards per pass attempt – exactly the weakness Akron can exploit.
Akron’s defense has forced 18 takeaways this season. Bowling Green has thrown 10 interceptions with their quarterback carousel. If the Falcons use a third-string quarterback, expect heavy reliance on the run game and conservative play-calling. That’s a recipe for three-and-outs and punts.
Akron vs Bowling Green Picks:
Finley’s passing prop sits at 218.5, but multiple factors work against him hitting this number. Akron’s 31.4% third-down conversion rate means drives stall constantly, limiting total plays.
The game script favors running clock and keeping possessions limited. Neither team wants a track meet here. Finley needs sustained drives to accumulate yards, and Akron hasn’t shown that capability all season. His big game against Kent State came in overtime – don’t expect that script Tuesday.
Despite their offensive struggles, Bowling Green converts 84.6% of red zone opportunities. When they get close, they score. Dendy serves as their primary weapon near the goal line.
The line dropped from -175 to -125 at FanDuel, creating value on the most likely touchdown outcome. His 84.5-yard rushing prop confirms workhorse status. In a low-scoring game, one Dendy touchdown might be enough.
MACtion player props odds as of Nov. 18 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Sharp money has pounded this game since the injury news broke. Bowling Green opened -4.5 but has been bet down to -3. That’s noteworthy movement through a key number.
The total tells an even bigger story. Opening at 47.5, it’s now down to 46.5 at most books. Bet365 is still offering 47, however, which Under bettors will want to take advantage of. When lines move based on injury information, the market is sending a clear message.
The moneyline shifted from Bowling Green -200 to -151. Akron improved from +168 to +127. That’s the market saying this game got much closer with the quarterback uncertainty.
Odds as of November 18th. Check out the top US betting sites for Week 13 MACtion.
Our CFB public betting reveals interesting splits. While 80% of moneyline bets back Bowling Green, the spread shows huge respect for Akron, with 72% of ATS bets on the Zips. After all, the Falcons are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
The total split stands out most with an even 50% backing both the Over and the Under. Typically, the public loves rooting for points in these MACtion matchups. Sharp bettors who got Under 47.5 or higher made the right call before the market adjusted.
Monitor the injury report closely. If both quarterbacks get cleared, the dynamics change completely. But right now, this profiles as a defensive struggle where field position matters more than explosive plays. The Akron vs Bowling Green matchup has multiple paths for the Zips to cover.
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Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
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