Bills vs Texans Picks, Predictions & Closing Odds

• The Bills are 5.5-point favorites over the Texans on Thursday Night Football
• Houston’s defense leads the NFL in EPA/play, and ranks third in success rate
• See below for my Bills vs Texans picks and predictions, plus the closing odds

Week 12 kicks off with the Bills (7-3, 2-2 away) vs Texans (5-5, 3-2 home) on Thursday Night Football. CJ Stroud will sit out a third straight game for Houston, meaning we’ll be treated to yet another Davis Mills start.

Stroud’s status was looking promising when opening odds were released, but the line quickly shifted after he was declared out. Buffalo went from a 3.5-point favorite to 5.5-point chalk, and that’s where the spread currently sits per the latest TNF odds.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 pm ET / 5:15 pm PT from NRG Stadium, in Houston, TX, and on Amazon Prime.

Bills vs Texans Picks and Predictions

• Under 44.0 points (-110) at FanDuel

There’s a couple different ways I’d recommend betting this contest, but my favorite is playing under 44.5 points. It may seem sacrilegious to fade the Buffalo offense, but that’s how much I trust the Houston defense.

The Texans D leads the NFL in EPA/play, and ranks third in success rate. Houston also leads the league in EPA/pass, while only the Jaguars have allowed fewer rushing yards per game.

Houston Texans Defense Stats

Buffalo’s offense on the other hand, is the main reason they’re a Super Bowl odds contender. The Bills are top-three on offense in both EPA and success rate, and fourth in points per game. Josh Allen is a top-3 NFL MVP odds candidate, and is fresh off a 6 TD game.

However, if you look hard enough you can poke holes in the Bills attack. Let’s start with injuries. Dalton Kincaid, Allen’s most trusted target is out, while number one wideout Khalil Shakir is banged up. Keon Coleman has been a massive disappointment all season, and was benched in Week 11.

In all likelihood, Allen is going to be throwing to a less than 100 percent Shakir, Josh Palmer, Dawson Knox and Tyrell Shavers. I’m pretty sure that group isn’t striking fear into the NFL’s best pass defense.

As for James Cook and the rushing attack, it’s taken a step back in recent weeks. He’s been held below 55 rushing yards in back-to-back games, and is averaging only 3.8 yards per carry in November.

On the other side of the ball, the way to beat Buffalo is clear. Run the ball down their throats. The Bills are 31st in EPA/rush allowed this season, and no team has surrendered more rushing TD (17).

I’m sure Houston would prefer that strategy anyways with Mills under center, but I’m not convinced the Texans have the horses to execute. I like Woody Marks, and I actually think he’s a great bet to score a TD tonight. Can he replicate the 140 yard, three score effort from Tampa’s Sean Tucker last week versus Buffalo though? I have my doubts.

Houston ranks bottom-10 in EPA/rush on offense, and 23rd in run blocking grade per PFF. Mills meanwhile, isn’t going to threaten the Bills much through the air. He ranks 29th out of 38 qualified QB’s in adjusted EPA/drop back, and 32nd in success rate.

Looking for more Jets vs Patriots plays? Check out the following:

• Bills vs Texans same-game parlay
• Bills vs Texans player props
• Bills vs Texans expert predictions and picks

BUF vs HOU Closing Odds for TNF

As always, make sure you check out the best football betting apps if you’re wagering on the total or any other market. The best book to bet under 44.5 is Bet365 at the moment, as they’re offering the line at -110 odds.

BetMGM is the place to bet Houston against the spread, as their +5.5 at +100 odds is the best price in market. If you want lay the points with Buffalo, visit DraftKings or Bet365 as they’ve got Bills -5.5 priced at -110 odds.

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS).

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

SIGN UP
& GET $1,050

BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

GET PROMO

Per the NFL public betting trends, no team is more profitable than the Texans to the under over the last three seasons. Unders are 29-15 in Houston’s last 44 games (66%), which is the highest under rate in football.