San Jose State vs San Diego State Prediction, Line & Expert Picks for Late-Night Football

• The San Diego State Aztecs are heavy 11.5-point favorites to defeat the San Jose State Spartans in a Mountain West grudge match
• This battle features a high-flying offense versus a very stingy defense
• See below for my San Jose State vs San Diego State prediction, picks, and updated odds

It’s a Mountain West clash Saturday night between the San Jose State Spartans (3-7, 4-6 ATS) and San Diego State Aztecs (8-2, 8-2 ATS), who are topping the Mountain West conference. If SDSU can win their final two contests, they’ll host the conference championship on home soil, which is gargantuan, given that they’re 5-0 at home, outscoring opponents 162-38.

Since 2013 it’s a one-sided affair between these two squads, with SDSU grabbing nine victories in eleven meetings, however, it’s been an even 2-2 split in the last four duels. The books believe the Aztecs will keep pace in the Mountain West conference pegging them as strong home favorites in the College Football odds.

Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30 p.m. ET from Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego, California, with FS1 providing the broadcast coverage.

San Jose State vs San Diego State Prediction & Picks

• My prediction: Over 49.5 points (-110)

I’m going with over 49.5 points being scored, with San Jose State having a horrible defense, so much so that defensive coordinator Derrick Odum was just fired after the last outing. San Diego State doesn’t put up points in droves, but their running game can exploit a porous Spartans D. On the flip side, SJSU might be able to put points on the board, if their QB bounces back after a pair of struggles.

Senior Walker Eget has a 59% passing efficiency, with 17 TD and eight INT, however, he has no touchdowns and a whopping five picks the last two contests. He does, however, lead the Mountain West with 3,015 passing yards, nearly 500 yards more than his next closest pursuer.

Junior Jayden Denegal tosses the pigskin for SDSU, and he also has just under 60% passing, with modest totals of eight touchdowns and seven interceptions. He’s fared far better on familiar confines, with more yards at home (860), TD’s (5), fewer picks (2), and a better QB rating (156.9) compared to 704 yards, 3 TD, 5 INT, and 109.0 rating on the road.

The key for victory for the Spartans will be infiltrating a stingy Aztecs D, with wideout Danny Scudero having a monster game. He leads the conference with 1,155 receiving yards, with nobody else having more than 819. The Aztecs leading receiver is Jordan Napier (629 yards), but he injured his knee last week and is out for the campaign.

With just two games left, SJSU gave pink slips to DC Derrick Odum and special teams coordinator Joe Palcic after they oversaw poor units. Bojay Filimoeatu is the interim DC, looking to thwart the Aztecs strong ground game, led by junior Lucky Sutton, who leads the Mountain West with 1,048 rushing yards.

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Key Offensive & Defensive Stats (Out of 12 Mountain West Conference Teams)

San Jose State may not win a lot of games, but they certainly put up a lot of yards, more often than not when it’s garbage time and they’re trying to mount a comeback. The last two games have seen them combine for 26 points. The defense has been dreadful, allowing more than 32 points per outing.

While San Diego State doesn’t have a super potent offense, they more than hold their own, in particular in the running game. The D is their calling card, however, with tremendous numbers all across the board, surrendering almost 20 fewer points per skirmish.

San Jose State vs San Diego State Line

San Diego State is a hefty 11.5 point favorite over San Jose State, with typical -110 juice on both sides of the spread. The Aztecs’ moneyline sits at -460, meaning you’d need to risk $460 to win $100 on a straight-up victory.

SJSU offers significantly more value on the moneyline at +360, returning $360 on a $100 wager if the Spartans pull off the upset. When making your Spartans vs Aztecs picks, consider the SDSU’s recent performance against the spread.

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Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 3:00 p.m. ET on Nov. 22.

The total is set at 50.5 points with -110 on both sides of the ledger. Our SBD model prediction has a 27.8-16.4 victory for San Diego State, meaning the Spartans would barely cover the spread in the College Football lines. The -460 price on the moneyline represents an implied win probability of 82.1%.

In the National Championship odds, neither team is a threat to win it all, with Ohio State the +185 favorite.

San Jose State vs San Diego State Recent H2H History

San Diego State had completely owned this matchup, walking away with seven straight victories from 2013 to 2019, but it’s been evenly matched sine then, with both clubs posting a pair of wins versus each other.

The Spartans are 3-7 on the campaign and have kept five of those losses within ten points, but had their worst outing of the season last week, dropping 55-10 to Nevada. The Aztecs are 8-2, with a 17-7 W over Boise State last week, however, the game prior they were trounced 38-6 by Hawaii. They’ve failed to eclipse 24 points the last four duels.

How to Watch SJSU vs SDSU State

• Date: Saturday, November 22, 2025
• Time: 10:30 p.m. ET / 7:30 p.m. PT
• TV Channel: FS1
• Streaming: Fubo + Live TV
• Location: Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, CA
• Radio: KTRB 860 AM (SJ State), San Diego Sports 760 (SD State)

The San Jose State vs San Diego State odds and spread make this Mountain West showdown one to watch, with the Aztecs needing a victory to keep pace – two straight wins will give them the conference championship over UNLV.