F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix Predictions, Odds & Props (Saturday, Nov. 22)

• Carlos Sainz is dialed in; Chuck is still arguing with his engineer.
• Fernando’s got experience; Kimi’s got… homework?
• If you’re already this far, you might as well keep reading: The good stuff is just below.

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It’s Las Vegas Grand Prix weekend for the F1 boys, which means Liberty Media has once again decided that the best way to serve its global fanbase is to absolutely destroy my sleep schedule. We’re sending cars off at 11 p.m. ET on Saturday night—live on ESPN—because the European crowd insists on watching this thing with their Sunday morning coffee and scones. Nothing says “peak athletic drama” like watching an F1 grid send it into Turn 1 while the rest of us are adjusting our sleeping caps.

The bookmakers definitely know that at the SpeedwaySteve2 HQ, the lights go out at 10 p.m. sharp. Bedtime. Non-negotiable. Melatonin engaged, dreaming of sector times. So naturally, they’ve orchestrated a green flag that forces me to choose between REM sleep and live betting. Sickos. But enough about my sleep habits—let’s dive into our Las Vegas Grand Prix predictions and what this rain-soaked weekend has delivered.

Rain has played a part in every single session this weekend—because, of course, the desert chose this moment to reinvent itself as a water park. Qualifying was drenched, soaked, and downright aquatic. It turned the Strip into glistening pavement and gave us a pure spectacle in the “this is expensive and someone is absolutely going to end up in a barrier” sense.

But when the spray settled, we got a delightfully spicy grid. Lando Norris snagged pole, and Max Verstappen starts alongside him, continuing his streak of being unstoppable whenever conditions border on biblical. It sets up a front row that screams “championship battle,” unless you remember Oscar Piastri exists…who is back in P5, probably wondering what he did to anger the McLaren head brass this time.

Carlos Sainz, whose rain-dance routine clearly involved sacrificing something important, slides into third. And George Russell starts fourth, ready to politely explain to the field why they should absolutely move out of his way by lap two.

Going into a crucial race 💨

This is where our Drivers' Championship contenders will line up in the Grand Prix 👀⬇️#F1 #LasVegasGP pic.twitter.com/R1CiferfLh

— Formula 1 (@F1) November 22, 2025

Las Vegas Grand Prix Odds

Prices available at DraftKings as of Saturday, November 22 at 11 a.m. ET. Place an F1 wager with the DraftKings promo code.

Lando Norris starts on pole and enters the weekend as the favorite at -110, implying a 52% chance to win, while Max Verstappen is priced at +110, giving him roughly a 48% shot. If we were playing the “value” game, George Russell at +1200—implied probability about 8%—would get our money.

Las Vegas Grand Prix Predictions

The Las Vegas circuit clocks in at 6.201 kilometers, featuring a handful of tight, twisting sections, two DRS zones, and—most importantly—one of the longest straights on the entire F1 calendar. It’s a layout built for chaos and velocity, and if last year taught us anything, it’s that this place delivers: the 2024 race produced the most on-track overtakes of the entire season. Yes, this track. The one shaped like a poorly drawn upside-down pig in your geometry notebook.

Rain has been harassing the paddock all weekend, but the meteorologists—who make significantly more money than me and are wrong roughly the same percentage of the time—are calling for dry conditions on race night. This also happens to be the coldest race date on the calendar, which means teams are running maximum downforce in a desperate attempt to keep heat in the tires and dignity in the data.

Speaking of tires, the Pirellis absolutely hate this place. Vegas historically grinds them up like it’s trying to turn them into confetti for a residency show. Graining will be a problem, and unless someone stumbles into a miracle setup, we’re almost certainly looking at a two-stop race. Strategists everywhere are already sweating underneath their winter parkas. These conditions factor heavily into our Las Vegas Grand Prix predictions for the race outcome.

Las Vegas Grand Prix Picks

Fernando Alonso over Lewis Hamilton (-120, DraftKings)

Lewis Hamilton was left annoyed after Qualifying in last place for the Las Vegas Grand Prix

Read more from Lewis here 👉 https://t.co/HuFn7UWhW7#F1 #LasVegasGP pic.twitter.com/EdROLa6IWE

— Formula 1 (@F1) November 22, 2025

In one of this weekend’s eyebrow-raising matchups, Lewis Hamilton qualified dead last, while Fernando Alonso starts 7th in his Aston Martin. Father Time is turning back the clock here—two seasoned veterans, two past champions, squaring up on a track that actively encourages overtaking.

With a 13-place grid gap between these two, paired with this price, we’re making Fernando Alonso a definite play for our Las Vegas Grand Prix picks. Aston Martin is strong in colder conditions—think Mercedes-lite—with no issue firing up the tires and staying competitive. Ferrari has been decent with tire temps as well, but they’ve leaned heavily on “lift and coast” late in stints during recent races…which doesn’t exactly scream confidence.

If it rains, Hamilton can perform miracles—but so can Alonso. Oddsmakers may still be hypnotized by Max Verstappen’s pit-lane start, recovery drive sorcery in Brazil, which could explain why Hamilton starting dead last is priced like this.

Here’s the kicker: our projections have both drivers finishing around 9.0. A total toss-up on pure pace. So, when the price is close and the predicted outcome is identical, we’re siding with the guy who has a massive starting-position advantage. Sometimes the smart play really is that simple.

We’re rolling the dice with Alonso.

Carlos Sainz over Charles Leclerc (-130, ESPN)

Carlos Sainz hails P3 result in qualifying 🤩

👉 https://t.co/sNsIYgXtwC#F1 #LasVegasGP pic.twitter.com/0IJNsXuhVM

— Formula 1 (@F1) November 22, 2025

Carlos Sainz delivered another legacy drive in Friday night’s qualifying session, sticking it third on the grid. Charles Leclerc, whom we liked a whole lot to win the pole (back when we were naïve enough to think qualifying would be dry), will roll off ninth. In our projections, Sainz is pegged for a 4.0 finishing position, while Leclerc sits a couple of spots back at 6.0. We like Chuck…so does the entire “women with a pulse” demographic—but we’re paying the juice to back the former Ferrari driver here.

Sainz bagged a podium in Azerbaijan after a fantastic qualifying effort, so we trust the man’s racecraft. And let’s not forget: he beat Leclerc here in Las Vegas last year (P3 vs. P4), although that was in equal machinery…theoretically…since Sainz was already halfway out of the Ferrari in favor of Lewis Hamilton at the time. The Las Vegas Grand Prix odds reflect this starting position advantage, making Sainz our play.

Fernando Alonso over Kimi Antonelli (+105, ESPN)

We’re hopping back in on Fernando Alonso for the double dip. Like ice cream. Because two scoops are always better than one. Unless you’re lactose intolerant. Then no scoops. But still make the wagers—and maybe buy something soy-based. This has spiraled, but we move.

What we do know: Alonso has a big starting position advantage over young Kimi Antonelli. We expected Kimi to have some pace in the Mercedes with the dropping temperatures, but this weekend marks his first-ever laps around Las Vegas. The kid probably needs a permission slip just to walk through the MGM Grand lobby, while Alonso has almost certainly been on a first-name basis with every cocktail server on the Strip since 2008.

We love a grizzled vet…especially one who looks locked in this weekend and is piloting a quick tub. Give us the experience. Give us the tire whispering. Give us a man who has absolutely seen some things.

Let’s double down on the old guy slapping around the teenager. Feels right for our final Las Vegas Grand Prix pick.