Week 12 NFL Predictions: Computer Score Projections, Expert Picks & Upset Analysis

Week 12 of the 2025 NFL season continues with a full slate on Sunday after the Texans stunned the Bills on Thursday Night Football. My Week 12 NFL upset picks target the Colts and Falcons, while my best bet locks in on the lowest total of the week at Lambeau Field.

I went 2-1 on my NFL picks last weekend for another profitable week. My Panthers upset pick cashed when Carolina beat Atlanta 30-27 in overtime. Rico Dowdle ran all over the Falcons like I projected. The Lions-Eagles Under 46.5 cashed comfortably in a 16-9 defensive battle. My only loss was the Seahawks moneyline when Seattle went down 21-19 to the Rams.

The computer model nearly had me convinced on the Bears’ upset last week. And sure enough, Chicago took down Minnesota as a home underdog. That has me keeping a closer eye on the model this week, especially since we’re actually in sync on both upset picks.

Week 12 NFL Predictions

The computer and I are on the same page about both upsets this week. The Colts over Chiefs projection has Kansas City losing at home as 3.5-point favorites. The model forecasts Indianapolis winning 24-22, which tracks with their elite offense off a bye. The model projects Falcons over Saints by an 18-13 score in what should be an ugly divisional battle.

Notice the Browns-Raiders projection of 17-14. The computer isn’t optimistic about Shedeur Sanders’ first NFL start, projecting a low-scoring road loss in Las Vegas. The Steelers-Bears score projection at 20-17 is also interesting. If Aaron Rodgers can’t go with his wrist injury, that 46.5 total could drop even lower.

This article features straight-up predictions, so make sure you check out Zach Reger’s Week 12 NFL Picks Against the Spread for some ATS action.

NFL Best Bet for Week 12

Vikings-Packers Under 41.5 (-110)

Brady Trettenero

Sports Betting Dime • November 23, 2025 at 8:39am

Pick

Odds

Under +41.5

Over/Under

NFL • Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers

-109 on Caesars

SCHEDULED • 11/23/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1763887172563-481c-575

My best NFL Week 12 bet targets the lowest total on the Sunday slate. This NFC North clash at Lambeau Field should stay comfortably under 41.5 points.

J.J. McCarthy can’t stop throwing interceptions. He’s up to eight picks in five starts, with at least one in every game. His 5.7% interception rate is the worst among current starters. Against the Bears last week, he hit just 16 of 32 passes for 150 yards and threw two picks.

Green Bay had five chances for interceptions against Jameis Winston last week, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they snag a couple from McCarthy this time around.

Minnesota’s offense is stuck in neutral. They rank 22nd in points per game (21.8), 27th in total yards (296.4), and dead last in third-down conversion rate at 31.4%. Over their last five, the Vikings are averaging just 19 points a game.

Frustration for the Vikings offense and their fans pic.twitter.com/gsG54igfGn

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) November 9, 2025

Green Bay wins with efficiency, not explosive plays. They lead the NFL in third-down conversion rate at 49.2%, but they rank just 13th in points per game (24.0). Jordan Love completes 67.9% of his passes with a 16-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. That’s steady football, not fireworks.

Both defenses excel at limiting big plays. The Packers have allowed just 23 plays of 20-plus yards this season, fewest in the NFL. Minnesota is right behind them with 27. These teams force you to sustain long drives.

There’s a solid trend backing the Under, too: Green Bay has hit the Under in 60.5% of games when favored by 6.5 or more at home since 2015. The weather at Lambeau is typical for late November, with temperatures in the mid-40s and light winds, which could slow down the passing game just enough.

NFL Week 12 Upset Picks

Indianapolis Colts (+3.5) over Kansas City Chiefs

Brady Trettenero

Sports Betting Dime • November 23, 2025 at 8:30am

Pick

Odds

AwayTeam

Moneyline

NFL • Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs

160 on Fanatics

SCHEDULED • 11/23/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1763886638528-481c-103

My first NFL upset pick for Week 12 backs the Colts as road dogs against a Chiefs team in complete freefall. Kansas City sits at 5-5 after dropping two straight. They’re 0-5 in one-score games this season after going 10-0 in those same situations last year.

The Chiefs have fallen out of the AFC West race. They trail Denver by 3.5 games and already lost the head-to-head tiebreaker to both the Broncos and Chargers. If the season ended today, Kansas City wouldn’t even make the playoffs. They’re ninth in the AFC.

Patrick Mahomes isn’t playing like Patrick Mahomes. He’s completing just 64.5% of his passes with 18 touchdowns and six interceptions through 10 games. His three red zone picks in their five losses have killed drives at the worst possible times. The Chiefs average just 25.4 points per game, and their red zone creativity has disappeared.

INTERCEPTED@Broncos pick off Mahomes in the red zone👀 pic.twitter.com/sLoB6xM3rj

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 16, 2025

Indianapolis comes in with the NFL’s top offense by both EPA/play and DVOA. They’re putting up 32.1 points per game and leading the league with 6.4 yards per play. Jonathan Taylor is in a league of his own with 1,139 rushing yards, by far the most in the NFL.

The Colts’ offensive line ranks third in the league. Left tackle Bernhard Raimann and guard Quenton Nelson are playing at an elite level. This unit creates 3.4 yards before contact, the best mark in the NFL. Kansas City’s run defense allows opposing offenses to convert on third down at a 46.7% clip. That’s a problem against a Colts team that excels in those situations.

Shane Steichen had two weeks to prepare coming off the bye. He spent nearly a decade with the Chargers in the AFC West and was the Eagles’ offensive coordinator when Philly lost to KC in the Super Bowl. He knows how this team plays.

Daniel Jones has been efficient for Indy with 15 touchdowns and seven picks while adding five rushing scores. Rookie tight end Tyler Warren gives Jones a reliable target with 50 catches for 617 yards.

The NFL public betting percentages show the Colts getting respect as road dogs. Indianapolis is an impressive 7-3 against the spread this season. Not only am I taking the points with the team playing better football right now, but I’m playing that team on the moneyline.

Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) over New Orleans Saints

Brady Trettenero

Sports Betting Dime • November 23, 2025 at 8:31am

Pick

Odds

AwayTeam

Moneyline

NFL • Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints

115 on ESPN BET

SCHEDULED • 11/23/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1763886675746-481c-409

Next up in our Week 12 NFL upset picks is a divisional matchup where the line feels off. The Falcons are underdogs with Kirk Cousins back under center, facing a Saints team that managed only 3 points last week.

Cousins has thrived against the Saints throughout his career. He’s 3-4 lifetime against New Orleans with 2,113 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, and just four interceptions for a 104.3 QB rating. He even beat them in the 2019 wild-card round when he was with Minnesota.

Sure, Cousins looked a little rusty in relief of Michael Penix Jr. last week, going 6-of-14 for 48 yards against Carolina. But that was mid-game relief duty without any first-team reps. This week, offensive coordinator Zac Robinson has tailored the game plan specifically for him.

😤 @KirkCousins8 pic.twitter.com/Do3JMjIZDw

— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) November 21, 2025

New Orleans struggles at home. They’re just 3-7 in their last 10 games at the Superdome, averaging 18 points while allowing 20.5. The Saints haven’t held a lead entering any second quarter this season. That’s 10 straight games trailing or tied after the first quarter, tied for the longest streak in franchise history.

Tyler Shough looked competent in his Week 10 win over Carolina, going 19-of-27 for 282 yards and two touchdowns. But he’s still a rookie making just his third career start. Asking him to maintain that level against a Falcons defense that’s racked up 34 sacks this season is asking a lot. Atlanta currently has the best sack differential in franchise history at +20.

Without Drake London (PCL injury), Atlanta will lean on Bijan Robinson. The third-year back averages 78.3 yards per game and five yards per carry. He’s averaging over 70 scrimmage yards in first halves this season, the highest in the NFL. With the Saints’ run defense sitting at 21st in rush yards allowed per game, Robinson should take control Sunday.

The all-time series between these teams is tied 56-56. Their 112 meetings are the most ever in any series that’s currently knotted. The Falcons have lost 34 one-score games since 2020, most in the NFL. This is one of those one-score games I feel will go Atlanta’s way.

Most Impactful NFL Injuries for Week 12

Colts at Chiefs

• Isiah Pacheco, RB (Chiefs): OUT – Knee
• Xavier Worthy, WR (Chiefs): QUESTIONABLE – Ankle
• Charvarius Ward, CB (Colts): QUESTIONABLE – Concussion

Pacheco practiced all week but won’t play. Kareem Hunt continues as the lead back.

Vikings at Packers

• Jayden Reed, WR (Packers): OUT – Foot/Shoulder
• Josh Jacobs, RB (Packers): QUESTIONABLE – Knee
• Quay Walker, LB (Packers): DOUBTFUL – Neck

Jacobs didn’t practice Wednesday but was limited Thursday and Friday. He’s expected to test it pregame.

Patriots at Bengals

• Joe Burrow, QB (Bengals): OUT – Toe
• Trey Hendrickson, DE (Bengals): OUT – Hip/Pelvis
• Rhamondre Stevenson, RB (Patriots): QUESTIONABLE – Toe

Burrow practiced fully Wednesday and Thursday but won’t be activated from IR. Joe Flacco starts his sixth straight game. Stevenson returns after missing three games.

Giants at Lions

• Jaxson Dart, QB (Giants): OUT – Concussion
• Kayvon Thibodeaux, OLB (Giants): OUT – Shoulder
• Terrion Arnold, CB (Lions): OUT – Concussion
• Taylor Decker, OT (Lions): QUESTIONABLE – Shoulder
• Penei Sewell, OT (Lions): QUESTIONABLE – Ankle

Jameis Winston starts for the Giants. Both Lions tackles didn’t practice Friday.

Steelers at Bears

• Aaron Rodgers, QB (Steelers): QUESTIONABLE – Left wrist
• Alex Highsmith, LB (Steelers): DOUBTFUL – Pectoral
• Tremaine Edmunds, MLB (Bears): OUT – Groin
• T.J. Edwards, LB (Bears): OUT – Hand/Hamstring

Rodgers fractured his left wrist but practiced limited Thursday and Friday. Mason Rudolph would start if Rodgers can’t go. The Bears are missing both starting inside linebackers.

Jaguars at Cardinals

• Brian Thomas Jr., WR (Jaguars): OUT – Ankle
• Marvin Harrison Jr., WR (Cardinals): OUT – Appendicitis
• Travon Walker, DE (Jaguars): OUT – Knee

Both teams missing their top receivers. Harrison had surgery Monday.

Browns at Raiders

• Dillon Gabriel, QB (Browns): OUT – Concussion
• Jamari Thrash, WR (Browns): OUT – Foot

Shedeur Sanders makes his first NFL start. Bailey Zappe backs him up.

Falcons at Saints

• Drake London, WR (Falcons): OUT – Knee
• Leonard Floyd, OLB (Falcons): QUESTIONABLE – Hamstring
• Alvin Kamara, RB (Saints): QUESTIONABLE – Ankle

London’s PCL injury is a big loss for Atlanta’s passing game. Kamara was limited all week with the ankle.

Eagles at Cowboys

• Lane Johnson, RT (Eagles): OUT – Foot
• Jadeveon Clowney, DE (Cowboys): QUESTIONABLE – Shoulder/Neck

Eagles missing their All-Pro right tackle. Fred Johnson starts in his place.

Buccaneers at Rams (SNF)

• Bucky Irving, RB (Buccaneers): OUT – Shoulder/Foot
• Haason Reddick, OLB (Buccaneers): OUT – Ankle/Knee
• Chris Godwin, WR (Buccaneers): QUESTIONABLE – Fibula

Godwin practiced fully Thursday. He’s missed five games but should play.

Weather Impacting Week 12 NFL Games

Weather conditions are mild across most venues this week, though a few games could see minor impacts.

Vikings at Packers: Mid-40s with 7 mph winds. Standard late November at Lambeau. Just cold enough to affect the passing game slightly.

Steelers at Bears: 50 degrees with 5-10 mph winds. Perfect football weather at Soldier Field.

Patriots at Bengals: 55 degrees with 5 mph winds. Clear skies in Cincinnati.

Seahawks at Titans: Possible fog with 13% chance of light rain. Could be the first foggy game of 2025.

Check our NFL odds page for the latest lines as kickoff approaches.