Chiefs vs Cowboys Expert Picks & Predictions for Thanksgiving

• On the fringe of the playoff race in their respective divisions, the Cowboys host the Chiefs on Thanksgiving
• Dallas is 7-4 O/U this season but KC is just 3-8
• See my Chiefs vs Cowboys expert picks, predictions, and best bets for Nov. 27th

The Kansas City Chiefs (6-5, 1-4 away, 5-5-1 ATS, 3-8 O/U) travel to Dallas for their first Thanksgiving appearance in two decades, facing the Cowboys (5-5-1, 3-1-1 home, 6-5 ATS, 7-4 O/U) in what projects as a shootout on the turf at AT&T Stadium. The Chiefs enter as 3-point road favorites despite their disappointing 1-4 record away from home, which is the primary reason KC is on the outside looking in with respect to the NFL playoff bracket.

The Cowboys are in the same position in the NFC despite a two-game win streak, so neither team can afford another loss at this late stage of the season.

KC/Dallas kicks off at 4:30 pm ET, the second game of a Thanksgiving triple-header. I have set out my Chiefs vs Cowboys picks and predictions, plus the latest odds, line movement, and betting splits for this holiday showdown.

Jump to: PICKS || ODDS || BETTING SPLITS

Chiefs vs Cowboys Expert Picks, Predictions & Best Bets

The betting value in this Thanksgiving clash centers on the home underdog getting points in a projected shootout. While Kansas City possesses championship experience and maintains a crucial +1 turnover differential compared to Dallas’s concerning -5 mark, the Cowboys’ offensive production creates compelling betting opportunities at home.

KC vs DAL ATS Best Bet: Dallas Cowboys +3.5 (-112) at Caesars

Dallas’s offensive efficiency metrics support taking the points at home. The Cowboys have demonstrated superior production across key categories that translate directly to scoring opportunities.

The Cowboys’ balanced attack averages 28.5 points per game while maintaining efficiency in crucial situations. Their 42.6% third-down conversion rate and 61.4% red zone touchdown percentage indicate an offense capable of sustaining drives against Kansas City’s defense. With home-field advantage and superior offensive metrics, Dallas presents strong value getting three points.

Game-Total Pick: Over 52.0 (-110) at BetMGM

The combined scoring averages of both teams (53.3 points) exceeds the current number, and the game script favors aggressive play-calling from both sides.

Supporting factors for the over:

• Cowboys average 28.5 PPG at home this season
• Chiefs have allowed 24+ points in six of their last eight games
• Both teams rank in the top 12 in passing yards per game
• Thanksgiving Day games historically favor offense due to nationally televised exposure

Top KC vs DAL Player Prop: Prescott Over 250.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Fanatics

This line appears significantly undervalued considering Dallas’s passing volume and game environment. Prescott has averaged 266.8 passing yards per game (2,935 yards over 11 games), making 254.5 a conservative projection. With the Cowboys likely needing to match Kansas City’s scoring, expect Dallas to lean heavily on their aerial attack featuring CeeDee Lamb and the supporting cast.

Key Betting Trends Supporting Picks

Recent performance indicators and historical patterns support our recommended plays:

• Dallas is 7-3 ATS as home underdogs of three points or fewer over the last two seasons
• The Cowboys have covered in four of their last five games following a victory
• Kansas City is 3-7 ATS as road favorites of 3+ points this season
• Chiefs games have gone over the total in six of the last eight contests when Mahomes throws for 250+ yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Dallas Cowboys Odds

The Chiefs opened as four-point road favorites but the line has moved as far as -3.0 at some books. As of late Wednesday night, the best Dallas ATS odds are +3.5 (-112) at Caesars. The best Kansas City ATS odds are -3.0 (-115) at bet365.

The best Kansas City moneyline price is -175 at BetMGM, while the best Dallas moneyline price is +155 at bet365. The elevated total ranges from 52.0 to 52.5, up from the opening line of 51.5. BetMGM has the best over price (ov 52.0 at -110). Caesars has the best under price (un 52.5 at -109).

After removing the vig, the implied win probabilities show the Chiefs at 61.7% chance versus 38.3% for the Cowboys.

KC vs DAL Public-Betting Splits

The moneyline and ATS splits show a stunning divide. The public loves the Chiefs to win outright, putting 80% of moneyline bets and 74% of money on KC. But the ATS splits are nearly the inverse: Dallas is getting 82% of ATS handle on 67% of wagers.

The game total also shows the public with a heavy lean, this time to the under: 85% of wagers and 87% of money have come in on the under so far, indicating there’s been some reverse-line movement on the inflated total.

Chiefs vs Cowboys Statistical Breakdown