Week 13 NFL Parlay – Get a +1719 Longshot for Sunday Afternoon

• I’ve put together a +1719 longshot parlay for Sunday’s Week 13 NFL slate
• Mike Tomlin led teams are 19-5-1 ATS as a home underdog of less than 7 points beyond Week 5
• See my Week 13 NFL picks, parlay and top bets for Sunday, below

This week’s NFL Sunday slate is not one you’re going to be telling your grandchildren about. There’s bad weather forecasted, few marquee matchups and no totals above 45.5 points.

However, there are undervalued home ‘dogs and mispriced guys in the player props market. That’s how I’m choosing to attack today’s set of games, and I’ve put together a well thought out, +1719 parlay to mark the occasion.

Below you’ll find my favorite Week 13 NFL picks, including the best parlay and top bets to make for Sunday.

Best NFL Parlay for Week 13

My favorite longshot NFL parlay for Sunday comes with +1719 odds if you play it at bet365, which had (by far) the best odds at the time of writing.

I also like betting each of these legs as straights as well. I detail the best odds you can find on each leg in my analysis below. If you want to shop for the best odds on over/unders, check out the NFL player props tool.

NFL Parlay Pick #1: Steelers Stay Close to Bills

Let’s start with my favorite home dog, the Pittsburgh Steelers. They’re catching 3.5 points against a Buffalo Bills team that just hasn’t lived up to its billing as a top preseason Super Bowl odds contender.

The Bills have been a juggernaut at home this season, but on the road it’s been a different story. Buffalo is just 2-3 as visitors, scoring less than 20 points in all three loses. Their offense ranks number one in DVOA in Buffalo, but just middle of the pack on the road.

Now they have to to Pittsburgh, where things just always seem to break right for the Steelers when you least expect it. Mike Tomlin voodoo aside, there’s plenty of reasons to like Pittsburgh today.

The Steelers love to line up in heavy sets and pound the rock. You know who can’t stop the run? The Bills. Buffalo ranks bottom-three in EPA/rush and rushing yards allowed, and dead last in rush TD surrendered.

Buffalo Bills Run Defense Stats

Buffalo is especially bad against heavy run concepts, because they play base nickel defense at the league’s highest rate – more on that below. The Bills defense is built to pressure the QB, but no quarterback gets rid of the ball faster than Aaron Rodgers.

On the other side of the ball, the Bills live on inside rushes, the exact type of run the Steelers defend the best (top-10 in EPA/play).

Finally, we cannot ignore the trends. Pittsburgh is 41-17-2 ATS under Mike Tomlin the week after allowing 28 points. From Week 5 and beyond, the Steelers are 19-5-1 ATS as home underdogs of less than 7 points, covering by over a touchdown per game.

NFL Parlay Pick #2: Warren Runs All Over Buffalo

Due to the favorable matchup on the ground, the Steelers are going to lean extremely run heavy with Jaylen Warren. No team lines up in more 12 and 13 personnel than Pittsburgh, and the Bills are yielding 6.8 yards per carry against those heavy looks.

Buffalo’s defensive front ranks 19th in run stop rate, while Warren gets to rush behind an o-line that is eighth in run block win rate. Warren has four 60+ rushing yard games in his last five outings, and will add to that total this afternoon.

NFL Parlay Pick #3: Jets Push Falcons to the Brink

Who in their right mind is betting a Kirk Cousins led Falcons team on the road, as a field goal favorite, without Drake London, one of the best receivers in football? Obviously some bettors are, because Atlanta has remained a 3-point favorite versus the Jets all week.

The Falcons are the wrong side. Plain and simple. Cousins is a statue in the pocket, and has a collection of practice squad receivers to throw to. The last time we saw him as a starting QB, he was bottom-12 in EPA/play and air yards, and after watching him lumber around this season it’s only gotten worse.

This game projects to be one of the coldest and windiest on the slate, which isn’t going to do Cousins’ weak arm any favors.

New York on the other hand, is trending up. They’ve allowed just 2.7 yards per rush over the last two games, and are already 2-0 versus backup QB’s. They have a massive advantage in the special teams department where they rank 1st in DVOA, and will be able to attack Atlanta inside with Breece Hall.

The Jets rank top-10 in run block win rate, while the Falcons are bottom-three in EPA/play versus inside rushes. New York has looked more competent with Tyrod Taylor under center, and outgained the Ravens last week by +0.7 net yards per play.

Speaking of Taylor, he’s an ATS darling. Tyrod is 23-12-3 ATS as an underdog in his career, while the Jets have covered in four of their last five as underdogs.

NFL Parlay Pick #4: Nacua Find the End Zone

Back to the player props market for the final two legs of my parlay. An anytime touchdown for Puca Nacua is my next target, as he draws a favorable matchup with the Panthers weak secondary.

No team has a higher implied team total today than the Rams. Matthew Stafford is the clear NFL MVP odds frontrunner, and Nacua is his favorite target.

Nacua leads LA in targets, catches and YAC. He’s scored only five touchdowns this season, but positive regression is coming. His snaps are trending up, and should continue that way due to the injury to Tyler Higbee. Without him, the Rams don’t lean quite so heavily into 12 and 13 personnel, which keeps Nacua on the field.

Carolina ranks 26th in EPA/pass allowed, while Nacua has converted 80% of his targets inside the 10-yard line this season into touchdowns.

NFL Parlay Pick #5: Stroud Shreds Colts

Last, but not least, I’m banking on 2+ passing touchdowns for CJ Stroud against the Colts. Indy has allowed the eighth most production to opposing wideouts, while Houston has upped it’s pass volume over the last few weeks.

The Texans rank sixth in pass play percentage this month, and will need to throw to keep pace with Indy as road underdogs. This game is inside, on a fast track, where Stroud has performed much better throughout his career.

His YPA indoors is nearly 2 yards higher than outdoors, while his completion percentage is 7 points higher. He also throws touchdowns at a higher clip under a roof, posting a 4.7% TD rate, compared to a 3.6% TD rate outside.