F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Predictions, Picks & Odds (Sunday, Dec. 7)

• The championship comes down to Abu Dhabi: Here’s how we’re betting it.
• Our favorite plays for the season finale: Backed by pace, data, and common sense.
• Stick around to the end: Our best value play is buried down there.

---

We’ve made it to the season finale from Abu Dhabi! It’s a race that historically delivers the on-track excitement level of a lightly carbonated seltzer, but this year, it’s the idea of the race that is doing all the heavy lifting.

Max Verstappen rolls in after a Qatar victory, his second straight win and fifth since the summer break. Apparently, he remembered he’s Max Verstappen and decided to speedrun the back half of the season.

He’s now somehow crawled, stomped, and DRS-blasted his way into second in the Drivers’ Championship, sitting just twelve points behind McLaren’s Lando Norris. Norris would probably like to file a restraining order, but unfortunately, must start right next to him on Sunday’s front row.

Verstappen on pole, Lando alongside, and Oscar Piastri in third like the world’s most talented third wheel—but at sixteen points back, he’s going to need divine intervention, a safety car timed to the millisecond, and maybe small electrical fires in both the Norris and Verstappen tubs to win the title.

There are approximately 94,000 permutations for how this championship can shake out…some of which were surely calculated on a TI-84 by a @SpeedwaySteve2 intern who cried during the process. Keep scrolling to find out how we’re attacking the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix predictions and picks before the universe reshuffles itself.

Norris. Verstappen. Piastri. 🍿

Here's how we could see a World Champion crowned in Abu Dhabi 🏆👇#F1 #AbuDhabiGP pic.twitter.com/2CM0rlVZRQ

— Formula 1 (@F1) December 3, 2025

Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Odds

Abu Dhabi Grand Prix odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook as of Saturday, December 6 at 12:00 p.m. ET. Get started with the DraftKings promo code.

Max Verstappen is the race favorite at -330, implying a win probability of 77%.

Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Predictions

Yas Marina is a 5.281-kilometer circuit with 16 turns, two DRS zones, and a long-standing reputation for being about as pass-friendly as a brick wall. We’ll circle it 58 times under the glow of the 5,000 permanent light fixtures—a number I did not make up but absolutely wish I had.

Conditions should be dry and warm without being oppressive, and the track will evolve throughout the event. It starts in daylight and ends under darkness…a symbolic representation of the emotional journey of anyone who’s watched a midfield strategy unfold this season.

Another fun feature: Ferrari World sits next door, complete with a roller coaster that hits 150 mph. That’s slower than most of the field, but honestly, right on pace with Ferrari’s Lewis Hamilton over the last three weekends. At least the branding is consistent.

This race also marks the end of the DRS era, leaving me with absolutely no idea what I’m supposed to complain about next year. Don’t worry. I’ll find something.

Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Picks

Winner Without Max Verstappen: Lando Norris (+100, TheScoreBet)

The McLarens have shown genuine pace all weekend, and we actually had Lando circled as the man to beat for pole…right up until Verstappen delivered a qualifying lap that looked like it came from a different universe. We even had a pre-weekend Norris outright ticket tucked away, which was adorable of us in hindsight. Once Max lit up the timing screens, that ticket started collecting dust instantly.

Still, the logic in this “Winner Without” market is straightforward. Verstappen has every incentive to control the race from the front. Norris, meanwhile, doesn’t need to get heroic into Turn 1; he just needs to avoid creating a carbon-fiber confetti cloud.

And let’s be honest: Lando’s starts aren’t exactly violent expressions of raw instinct. Some drivers launch like they’ve been shot out of a cannon. Lando tends to ease into the day like someone looking for their glasses.

But that’s fine.

Ghost Car! 👻

Norris 🆚 Verstappen: See where the battle for pole was won and lost 👀#F1 #AbuDhabiGP pic.twitter.com/iBsd1OWk8v

— Formula 1 (@F1) December 6, 2025

His job here is simple: survive the start, settle in, and keep the points gap back to Piastri tidy. The McLaren pit wall is not letting Oscar turn the first stint into a civil war. As for Russell, Leclerc, Alonso…they simply have not shown the pace to make this uncomfortable over a full race distance.

What we’re left with is the likeliest scenario: Max handles his business, and Lando brings it home in the “best of the rest” position without having to compromise his season-long arc. Not thrilling. But profitable.

And if the race insists on being beige, we might as well fatten our wallets with our Abu Dhabi Grand Prix picks.

Kimi Antonelli over Lewis Hamilton (-180, TheScoreBet / -190, Caesars)

Lewis Hamilton: seven-time World Champion, global icon, knight of the realm…has not made it out of Q1 in three consecutive races.

The man is cooked.
Absolutely finished.
In 2025, anyway.

His motivation to turn things around is hovering at zero, while his desire to reach the offseason is cranked to a million. If someone handed him a piña colada on the grid, he’d take it.

Kimi Antonelli, meanwhile, is 18 years old and probably gets hype every single time he’s allowed to sit in the race car. He rolls off 14th while Hamilton starts 16th, but the trajectories could not be more different.

🚨 | Kimi Antonelli on his 48-lap stint in Las Vegas:

"For the last 20 laps, I talked to the tyres every lap on the straight.

"I just begged them to please hold out until the end." pic.twitter.com/KQIy2vOkF0

— formularacers (@formularacers_) November 26, 2025

Antonelli has finished outside the top six just once in the last seven races, including two podiums over the last three. That is an astounding stat when you consider he’s the kid who replaced Hamilton…while Hamilton has recorded exactly zero podiums this season.

The motivations are different.
The vibes are different.
The lap times this weekend are very different.

Mercedes should have decent race pace as the track cools, and the evening conditions will bring the car to life, even though Abu Dhabi is still brutally difficult to pass on. That only helps Antonelli, who already starts ahead and has incredible recent form.

We’ve got Antonelli four spots clear of Hamilton in the ranker, making this one of our favorite Abu Dhabi Grand Prix picks of the past few weekends.

More Bets!

• Fernando Alonso over Isack Hadjar (-220, TheScoreBet)
• Pierre Gasly over Franco Colapinto (-250, TheScoreBet)

These two are expensive but reasonably safe…as safe as anything can be in a race where half the field is one bad strategy call away from emotional collapse.

No write-ups here…the editors say I can’t use 6,000 words on matchups, alienating Argentinian readers who back Franco Colapinto.

Ready to bet the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? Check out the best online sportsbook for all your F1 betting needs.