Odds to Make CFP: See Alabama, Notre Dame & Miami’s Chances on Selection Sunday
By Eric Rosales in College Football
Published:
- We’re just mere hours away from Selection Sunday in the College Football Playoff
- Notre Dame, Alabama, Duke and Miami in the ACC are all on the bubble
- See below for odds on bubble teams to make the CFP, and my analysis
One thing is for sure: no matter how many teams the College Football Playoffs expand to, there are always going to be schools that will feel ripped off that they aren’t in the field to battle for the national championship.
This year, with the CFP bracket beefed up to 12 teams from eight, there are some teams that won’t be resting easy Saturday night until they see their school solidified in that field on Selection Sunday.
Ahead of that, DraftKings has released odds on the bubble teams hoping to get into the end-of-year tournament.
Let’s run down the teams in the field, their odds, and see if there are potential controversies on the horizon.
Odds to Make College Football Playoff
Odds as of Dec 7 at 9am ET. Be sure to check out the best FanDuel promo code before placing a bet on any College Football Playoff game
Notre Dame, Alabama Appear as Locks
Picking these at-large teams, no matter how much computer and human analysis is put into this, isn’t an exact science.
Take Notre Dame: it appears only a miracle will keep them out of the field, as evidenced by their -1100 odds. The Fighting Irish rebounded from a disastrous start of the year, losing back-to-back games to ranked teams Miami and Texas Tech out the gate, but have since rattled off 10 straight wins and a current 10th seed in the latest CFP rankings.
That includes notable wins over eventual MWC champion Boise State, 20th-ranked USC and no. 22 Pitt.
But then what about Alabama? They opened the year with an ugly loss to Florida State — even uglier after the Seminoles finished 5-7 on the year — but beat five ranked teams, with just one more loss, to 11th-ranked Oklahoma en route to a 10-2 record.
However, one of the teams they beat, the Georgia Bulldogs, just hammered them in the SEC Championship. They will now potentially be the first school to make the CFP (although expanded) as a 3-loss team, as they’ve got sturdy -300 odds.
Not exactly sure how that makes it fair for other schools that are just afterthoughts, and not even given odds?
Take BYU: they have two losses on the year, both against Texas Tech, including Saturday’s Big 12 title game. Because of that loss, there’s no way they can improve on their most recent 11th-place in the CFP rankings.
ACC Schools Hanging By a Thread
There’s a definite possibility that the ACC won’t send a single school to the College Football Playoff.
It’s best team, the Miami Hurricanes — the team that beat Notre Dame to start the year — can’t improve its current CFP ranking of 12th because it failed to qualify for the ACC title game, played between Duke and Virginia.
Losses to unranked SMU and Louisville did them in, and the cratering of ranked teams South Florida and Florida State gave them what appeared to be just two quality wins. Can the committee look past that? The books are perhaps playing it close, leaving their odds at +140.
Another abomination is Duke beating Virginia 27-20 in OT to capture the ACC Championship. A Virginia win would have moved them to 11-2 and a legit CFP contender, but they’ve lost to a five-loss Blue Devils side.
Duke wasn’t even on the map of the most recent CFP rankings, and there’s no way they’re climbing into the Top 12, as evidenced by their +3000 odds of getting into the postseason.
James Madison May Be Dancing
That ACC mess opens the door for both Tulane (American Athletic Conference), 20th in the most recent CFP rankings, and James Madison (Sun Belt), 25th in the CFP rankings.
They will most likely break through as automatic bids, as the five-highest-ranked conference champions earn their berths. That puts them behind the Big Ten (Indiana), SEC (Georgia) and Big 12 (Texas Tech).
- BETMGM SPORTSBOOK
USE CODE SBD1500 & GET $1,500 BACK IN BONUS BETS
- BET365 SPORTSBOOK
BET $5 & GET $150 IN BONUS BETS WITH CODE DIME365
- FANATICS SPORTSBOOK
BET & GET UP TO $2,000 IN FANCASH
- DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK
BET $5 & GET $200 IN BONUS BETS IF YOUR BET WINS
- FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK
BET $5 & GET $150 IF YOUR BET WINS
- CAESARS SPORTSBOOK
USE CODE SBD20X & BET $1 TO DOUBLE THE WINNINGS ON YOUR FIRST 20 WAGERS!
- THESCORE BET SPORTSBOOK
USE CODE DIME TO UNLOCK BET $10, GET $100 BONUS
DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK T&Cs: GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $200 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Token expires 1/11/26. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 1/4/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.
BET365 SPORTSBOOK T&Cs: Minimum $10 deposit required. Minimum odds -500 of greater. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL OR TEXT 1-800-GAMBLER (AZ/CO/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA/MD/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ only (18+ KY).
BETMGM SPORTSBOOK T&Cs: Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US), Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This promotional offer is not available in DC, MS, NY, NV, ON, or PR.
Sports Writer & Editor
Having worked in and around sports since 1997, Eric is truly a knowledgeable expert. The two-time journalism grad specializes in all things NBA and NFL. From TSN.ca to CTV's Olympic Broadcast Consortium, Eric's work has appeared in local and national publications alike.


