By Brady Trettenero in NFL News
Published:
Week 14 of the 2025 NFL season brings the coldest weather we’ve seen all year, plus two division matchups where the market’s got it wrong. My Week 14 NFL picks target weather-impacted totals and plus-money underdogs, while my best bet backs a 46.5 Under in a Jacksonville monsoon.
I went 2-1 in Week 13 for another profitable weekend. The Bills crushed Pittsburgh 26-7 as predicted, while Houston cashed at +138 after grinding out a 20-16 win over Indianapolis. Arizona came up short 20-17 in Tampa, but the Texans’ moneyline more than covered that loss.
The computer model struggled last weekend, so I’m leaning heavier on matchup analysis and weather reports this week. Jacksonville’s getting hammered by rain Sunday, and the Chiefs’ offensive line is a complete disaster heading into Sunday night.
Here are my Week 14 NFL predictions, best bet, and upset picks.
The model loves road favorites this week. It’s predicting Buffalo to smash Cincinnati 37-18, Denver to roll Vegas 26-5, and Seattle to crush Atlanta 27-11. Meanwhile, it also projects the Rams to dominate Arizona 30-13.
I’m fading the computer on two games. The model has Indianapolis winning in Jacksonville 26-20, but it doesn’t pay enough attention to the weather or Jacksonville’s elite run defense. It also leans Kansas City 17-15 over Houston, missing the disaster with the Chiefs’ offensive line. See our complete NFL odds for updated lines.
This article features straight-up predictions and NFL betting analysis for Week 14. For ATS predictions, get Zach Reger’s NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 14.
Jacksonville’s getting a monsoon Sunday. The forecast shows 99% chance of rain with heavy downpours and 12 mph winds all game. This isn’t a passing shower. Meteorologists are calling for thunderstorms and significant precipitation all afternoon.
The Colts’ offense has cratered. They’ve lost three of four while averaging just 19.3 points per game. Daniel Jones is playing through a fractured fibula and can’t move. He ran once for one yard against Houston last week. The RPOs and bootlegs that made Indianapolis dangerous? All gone.
Jonathan Taylor hit a wall after that 244-yard game in Week 10. He’s averaged 3.9 yards per carry over his last two games. Against Jacksonville’s front, which ranks first at 82.4 rushing yards allowed per game, expect another brutal afternoon.
The Jags have held opponents under 70 rushing yards six times this season, including the last three straight. Taylor averages 43 rushing yards in four career games in Jacksonville. The Colts are 0-4 in those contests.
Jacksonville’s offense has been riding momentum with three straight wins, but they’re not lighting up scoreboards. Last week against Tennessee, they scored just 10 points in eight drives after building a 15-3 lead. The Jaguars rank 19th in total offense at 326.0 yards per game.
This is for first place in the AFC South. Both teams sit at 8-4. Division games with playoff implications get ugly. Add weather that will destroy both passing attacks, and this has 20-17 written all over it. Take the Colts-Jaguars Under 47.5.
The Chiefs are a disaster right now. They’re 6-6, they’ve dropped three of their last four, and Patrick Mahomes is operating behind a completely shredded offensive line. Right guard Trey Smith is doubtful with ankle sprains. Right tackle Jawaan Taylor is doubtful with a triceps injury.
Mahomes is about to face the NFL’s top defense. Houston allows just 265.7 yards per game and 16.5 points. They’ve shut down everyone during this four-game winning streak. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. have combined for 21.5 sacks and 26 tackles for loss this season.
The Chiefs’ patchwork offensive line is walking into a nightmare. Remember how Mahomes looked scrambling against Dallas? The Texans’ pass rush is better.
Kansas City’s defense only knows one way to play: blitz at the fifth-highest rate in football. The problem is, it’s stopped working. When they send extra rushers, they rank 31st in yards per play, 28th in pressure rate, and dead last in sack rate.
C.J. Stroud has completely solved the blitz. Since Week 4, he’s completing 79% of passes against the blitz with zero interceptions. His 60.3% completion percentage under pressure ranks second in the NFL. The Texans rebuilt their entire offense around Stroud identifying pressure pre-snap and getting the ball out quick.
Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo can be stubborn. He’ll keep blitzing, and Stroud will keep carving him up. The Chiefs are 5-7 against the spread this season.
Both teams desperately need this game. The Texans sit eighth in the AFC, just outside the playoff picture. The Chiefs are ninth at 6-6. But Houston’s playing with house money as the young team on the rise. Kansas City is the old dynasty crumbling. Check the latest Texans-Chiefs odds before Sunday night.
The same weather that makes the under attractive also makes Jacksonville the best upset value on the board. Heavy rain and 12 mph winds don’t just suppress scoring. They neutralize talent gaps completely.
When conditions get sloppy, the better team loses its edge. Indianapolis built their entire system around Daniel Jones’ mobility and play-action. But Jones is playing on a fractured fibula. He ran once for one yard last week. In dry conditions, his arm talent would overwhelm Jacksonville. In a downpour? This becomes a street fight.
Jacksonville has been money at home lately. They’ve covered eight of their last ten games at EverBank Stadium, going 5-2 against the spread as home underdogs. Meanwhile, Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS in their last five as favorites.
The matchup sets up perfectly for Jacksonville. The Colts’ entire offense runs through Jonathan Taylor, who leads the NFL with 1,282 rushing yards. But the Jaguars field the league’s top run defense at just 82.4 yards allowed per game. In four career games in Jacksonville, Taylor has averaged 43 rushing yards. The Colts are 0-4 in those games.
If Taylor can’t get going, Indianapolis becomes one-dimensional. A one-dimensional passing attack in a monsoon with a quarterback who can’t move is a recipe for disaster. On the flip side, Trevor Lawrence doesn’t need to be spectacular. The Colts’ pass defense ranks 27th in the NFL.
The Jaguars roll in on a three-game winning streak, having won four of their last five. The Colts limp in having lost three of four. This is for first place in the AFC South. Jacksonville’s playing at home with everything on the line in conditions that favor the hungrier team.
Divisional home underdogs in December cover at a 58% clip since 2018. Add weather concerns, and that number jumps to 64%. Take the Jaguars straight up.
Kansas City’s offensive line is in shambles. Two starting linemen doubtful against the NFL’s best pass rush creates a nightmare scenario for Mahomes.
Jones will play through the fractured fibula, but his mobility is shot. Gardner was on crutches after last week’s loss, but the injury isn’t as severe as feared. Little’s absence leaves Jacksonville vulnerable on the left side.
Daniels returns for Washington after missing five weeks with a dislocated elbow. This marks the first time all season the Commanders will have their starting quarterback, top three receivers, and full offensive line on the field together. McCarthy cleared concussion protocol on Thursday after missing Week 13.
Hendrickson is a massive loss for Cincinnati’s pass rush. Higgins cleared concussion protocol Friday and will play. Buffalo loses one of their best defensive players in Bernard.
New Orleans will be without Kamara for another week. Tampa Bay remains without both Evans and McMillan. Evans’ streak of 11 consecutive 1,000-yard seasons will end.
Herbert had surgery this week to insert a plate and screws into his fractured left hand, but is expected to play wearing a hard cast. Johnson and Carter are significant losses for Philadelphia on both sides of the line.
Harrison missed all week of practice with a heel injury that popped up during last week’s game. Big loss for Arizona’s passing attack.
Week 14 brings the coldest weather we’ve seen all season, with snow chances in two games and heavy rain in Florida.
Colts at Jaguars: Heavy rain all day with 99% precipitation chance. This has the greatest weather impact of any game this week and the highest potential for delays.
Titans at Browns: Cold and snowy with light 10 mph breeze. Expect snow showers throughout, enough to impact the passing game.
Bengals at Bills: Cold temps around 30 degrees with a good chance of snow showers during the game. Light winds keep it manageable.
Bears at Packers: Absolutely frigid with temps in the teens all game long. This is a downgrade to both offenses even without wind concerns.
Texans at Chiefs: Cold night with temps holding in the 20s, enough for a slight downgrade to passing and kicking.
Saints at Buccaneers: Decent chance of rain, though the heaviest precipitation should hold north of Raymond James Stadium during the game.
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Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
Updated: 41 minutes ago
