Army vs Navy Prediction, Odds, Spread & Week 16 CFB Preview

• Navy is a 6-point favorite over Army in the battle for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy
• The Midshipmen lead the nation in rushing yards per game, and rank 8th in yards per play
• See my Army vs Navy prediction, plus the odds, spread and Week 16 CFB preview below

One of the most storied rivalries in all of sports writes a new chapter on Saturday as Army (6-5, 4-4 AAC) faces Navy (9-2, 7-1 AAC). Both teams have already defeated Air Force this season, meaning the winner of this matchup will be crowned champion of the Service Academies and awarded the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy. 

Online sportsbooks are siding with Navy in this rivalry showdown, pegging them as 6-point favorites in the college football odds. I personally don’t feel this line is high enough, as the Midshipmen’s offense has been as tricky as any to slow down in 2025.

Kickoff is set for 3pm ET from M&T Bank Stadium, in Baltimore, MD, with CBS providing the broadcast coverage.

Here is my Army vs Navy prediction, plus the odds, spread and Week 16 CFB preview.

Army vs Navy Prediction

No team, not even the top CFP odds contenders, can rival the Navy rushing attack. Their triple-option scheme has given opposing defenses fits all season, and has propelled them to an impressive 9-2 mark. The Midshipmen average the most rushing yards per game in the country at 281.5, and it’s impossible to key in on one single rusher.

QB Blake Horvath led the team in attempts, rushing yards and TD, with fullback Alex Tecza ranking just behind him. Five players in all have rushed for at least 400 yards, including wide receiver Eli Heidenreich. The senior is arguably the team’s most explosive player, making his presence felt both on the ground and through the air.

Navy Rushing Stats

The thing that makes Navy so difficult to defend this year is a reliable passing game to compliment the run. Horvath averages 10.6 yards per throw and has passed for nearly 1,400 yards. He doesn’t turn the ball over and doesn’t take sacks, and the moment the rushing game lulls enemy defenses to sleep, he’ll connect for a big play with Heidenreich.

The Midshipmen averaged 33 points per game this season in AAC play, en route to a 7-1 conference record. They beat a ranked South Florida team three weeks ago and ended Memphis’ American Title Game hopes the following week. Their only two losses were to Notre Dame and North Texas, two teams that just missed out on the College Football Playoff.

If there’s a weakness, it’s on defense, but there are still plenty of things to like about that unit. It’s led by defensive tackle Landon Robinson, who was just named AAC defensive player of the year. The Navy defense is built on disruption and takeaways, and I’m convinced they’ll be able to slow down the Army offense just like they did last year.

Army vs Navy Last 5 Matchups

Unlike the Midshipmen, Army is entirely one-dimensional. Yes, their rushing attack is also extremely prolific, averaging 254.9 yards per game, but they throw just nine passes per outing. To make matters worse, they complete less than 60% of those attempts and get sacked at a much higher rate than they should.

Junior QB Cale Hellums is the heart and soul of the offense, leading the team in rushing yards and scores. Behind him, Noah Short is the program’s next leading rusher, and he’s fresh off a 14-carry, 127-yard performance versus UTSA.

Army leads the nation in time of possession, but despite holding the ball for long stretches at a time, they’ve had a hard time punching it in. They average just 22.6 points and 327.9 yards per game. That’s nearly 100 yards of total offense less than Navy, and the Midshipmen played a more demanding schedule.

Defensively, the Black Knights have middling metrics against the pass and the run, and are in for a rude awakening in this matchup. Army may face a triple-option attack every day in practice, but they haven’t seen one as efficient as the Midshipmen’s, both on the ground and through the air.

Navy’s versatility is going to ultimately be too much to handle, which is why I’m very comfortable laying the points with the Midshipmen.

Army vs Navy Odds and Spread

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Odds as of Dec. 8 at consensus college football betting apps. Make sure you claim the Bet365 promo code to bet on college football this week.

The best place to bet Navy against the spread as of Monday is Bet365. They’re currently offering a -6 line at -110 odds, while other commercial books like FanDuel have moved to a -6.5 point spread.

Total-wise, the over/under varies between 38.5 and 39.5, depending on where you look, despite only one of the Midshipmen’s games this season finishing below 45 points.

Per the college football public betting trends, the spread actually opened at Navy -4.5, but didn’t last long. Sharp bettors quickly pounced on that line, driving it up to where it sits today. If it touches -7 we might start to see some buy back on Army, but I’d be comfortable betting the Midshipmen up until that point.