Memphis vs NC State Prediction, Line & Picks for Gasparilla Bowl (Dec. 19)
By Danny Burke in College Football
Published:
- Memphis and NC State are battling to claim the Gasparilla Bowl
- The Tigers enter with a record of 8-4, while the Wolfpack are 7-5
- See our Memphis vs NC State prediction, line and picks for the Gasparilla Bowl
Down in Tampa Bay, Florida, the Gasparilla Bowl will be played at Raymond James Stadium – typically home to the NFL’s Buccaneers, but on Friday it will host the NC State Wolfpack and Memphis Tigers.
Kickoff is set for 2:30 p.m. ET, with ESPN providing coverage.
Let’s get you set with our Memphis vs. NC State prediction, odds, and picks for the Gasparilla Bowl.
Memphis vs NC State Prediction
- Prediction: Game Goes Over 56.5 Points
These teams enter this bowl game on very different trajectories. Memphis closed the regular season on a three-game losing streak, falling to Tulane, East Carolina and Navy. Following those defeats, the Tigers also lost Ryan Silverfield, who departed to take the head coaching job at Arkansas. Reggie Howard, who spent the season as the team’s cornerbacks coach, has taken over on an interim basis.
Meanwhile NC State finished the regular season strong, winning three of its final four games. That stretch included victories over Georgia Tech, Florida State and North Carolina. The lone loss came against playoff-bound Miami, which handed them a 41–7 defeat.
Both of these teams feature solid offensive groups. Memphis, led by quarterback Brendon Lewis, averaged 34.6 points per game this season, ranking 30th in overall success rate and 60th in EPA per play. The Tigers do their best work on the ground, sitting second in rush EPA per play and fifth in rush success rate.
A large part of that efficiency comes from Lewis, who is a threat outside the pocket. He scrambled 141 times for 618 yards and nine rushing touchdowns this season. Alongside him is starting tailback Sutton Smith, who carried the ball 102 times for 669 yards, averaged 6.6 yards per carry and added seven scores. As a team, Memphis totaled 34 rushing touchdowns compared to just 15 through the air.
As a passer, Lewis completed 69.7% of his throws for 2,567 yards with a 15–6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. If he can remain efficient through the air, while continuing to impact the game as a runner, this Tigers offense becomes difficult to contain.
NC State may struggle to do so. The Wolfpack allowed roughly 29 points per game this season, and enter this matchup ranking 123rd in defensive EPA per play. While they sit 58th in defensive success rate, the overall profile remains concerning. They also rank 120th in third and fourth down success rate allowed, a major issue against a high-efficiency offense.
On the other side, NC State averaged 30.2 points per game and now faces a Memphis defense that allowed 22.5 per contest. The Wolfpack finished the season ranked 19th in offensive EPA per play and 47th in success rate, with much of that production coming through the air.
Sophomore quarterback CJ Bailey drives that success. He completed 69.6% of his passes for 2,884 yards with a 23–9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Bailey also adds mobility, rushing for 215 yards and five touchdowns on 82 carries.
That’s not to say NC State lacks a ground game. Sophomore tailback Hollywood Smothers averaged 5.9 yards per carry, totaling 939 rushing yards and six touchdowns this season.
As for slowing the Wolfpack, Memphis may not have many answers. The Tigers enter this matchup ranked 118th in defensive EPA per play allowed and 65th in defensive success rate. They’ve held up reasonably well against the run, but remain vulnerable through the air – which sets up well for Bailey and the Wolfpack passing attack.
Memphis vs NC State Line
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of Thursday, December 18 at 11:30 am ET
Tigers vs Wolfpack Picks
I’ve gone back and forth on picking a side for quite some time. I certainly favor CJ Bailey and the NC State offense, but Memphis has a respectable offense as well and finds itself in a unique situation.
There is absolutely no pressure on the Tigers in this game. They’re playing with house money, having lost their last three games and their head coach. They could be more inspired to play with pride and show that they don’t need him to win ball games.
The market move supports that idea, as Memphis has been bet down from +6 to +4.5, showing that bettors are buying into that underdog mentality.
Ultimately, I’m choosing to stay away from a side given how susceptible both defenses are. It wouldn’t shock me if Memphis kept this close for most of the game, only for NC State to win it late on a touchdown and cover the number.
In a bowl game with little on the line, defensive intensity can be inconsistent. Combine that with how poor both defenses have been statistically, and the over stands out as the most valuable play on the board.
Bet: Memphis / NC State Over 56.5 (-118)
Danny Burke brings nearly a decade of experience in sports media and betting, beginning at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, where he called Huskers games, developed the betting section of the local ESPN affiliate’s website, and co-hosted on its radio station. He later hosted national programs wit
