Montana vs Montana State Prediction, Spread & Odds – FCS Semi-Finals

• No. 2 Montana State is a 6-point favorite over No. 3 Montana in Saturday’s FCS Playoffs
• Montana boasts the highest scoring offense left in the postseason, averaging 42.3 points per game
• See my Montana vs Montana State prediction, plus the spread and odds for the FCS Semi-Finals

We’ve narrowed the FCS playoff field down to four teams, with the semifinals set to kick off this weekend. No. 2 Montana State (12-2) hosts No. 3 Montana (13-1) in the first semi, in a matchup of the two best teams still standing.

These in-state rivals met earlier this season with the Bobcats squeaking out a 31-28 victory, and online sportsbooks are siding with them in this contest per the latest college football odds.

Kickoff is set for 4 pm ET from Bobcat Stadium in Bozeman, MT, with ABC providing the broadcast coverage.

Here is my Montana vs Montana State prediction, plus the spread and odds for the FCS Semi-Finals.

Montana vs Montana State Prediction

This rivalry is known as the Brawl of the Wild, and shockingly, Saturday’s semifinal will be the first time the Grizzlies and Bobcats have met in the playoffs. The level of play might be lower than in the CFP bracket matchups, but make no mistake, this is still a hot ticket. Prices on the resale market have reportedly reached FIFA World Cup levels, and there won’t be an empty seat in the building.

Depending on where you look, Montana State is favored by as many as 6 points. I think that’s a huge mistake, and an insult to what Montana has accomplished this season.

The Grizzlies’ lone defeat was to their arch nemesis, and they were one costly turnover away from winning the game. The difference was a Bobcats pick-six, but in their other outings, they barely broke a sweat. 10 of Montana’s 13 wins this season were by double-figures. They enter play averaging 42.3 points per game and 465 yards of offense.

The Grizzlies grade out five spots higher than Montana State on offense per SP+, and they’ve been unstoppable on that side of the ball in the postseason. They’ve scored 102 points in two games, with star QB Keali’i Ah Yat throwing for 665 yards and posting a sparkling 7-to-0 TD-to-INT rate.

Montana Offensive Stats

Montana Defense Steps Up

Defensively, they’ve stepped up significantly in the playoffs. Montana has allowed just 25.5 points per game and has held both opponents to a sub-45% rushing success rate.

Rush defense has been their Kryptonite all season, so the recent success is promising. The Grizzlies have an excellent pass rush and should be able to get home versus the Bobcats’ offensive line just like they did in their first matchup. Montana generated pressure on 30% of Justin Lamson’s dropbacks in that outing, sacking him four times.

Montana State Bobcats Analysis

Speaking of Lamson, he threw for 246 yards and 2 TD in Montana State’s 44-28 quarterfinal win over Stephen F. Austin. The Bobcats’ offense isn’t nearly as potent as their opponent’s, ranking 17th in yards per game.

They prefer to attack on the ground, hence the importance of the Grizzlies’ improved rush defense, with Lamson and lead back Julius Davis leading the way. The duo combined for 186 rushing yards in the first Brawl of the Wild matchup, while backup RB Adam Jones is coming off back-to-back 100+ yard games.

Defensively, the overall numbers favor Montana State, but they’ve shown some vulnerability in recent weeks. They allowed a 50% rushing success rate to Montana in their first meeting, and yielded a handful of chunk passing plays to the Lumberjacks last week.

FCS Champion – Last 5 Years

That gives us hope that Ah Yat can continue his incredible play and deliver another ceiling performance. The Grizzlies QB attempted 10 passes that travelled at least 10+ air yards last week, producing 168 yards and 3 TD on those throws.

I think Montana is incredibly live to not only cover in this game, but to win outright. These teams are incredibly even, and I’ll gladly take the more potent offense. I’m running, not walking, to bet them against the spread, and will sprinkle some moneyline action on them as well.

Montana vs Montana State Spread & Odds

The best book to bet them at currently is Bet365, who are offering a +6 line on the Grizzlies at -110 odds. Total-wise, the over/under sits at 53.5, which is a number that Montana has nearly cleared on its own in back-to-back outings.

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Odds as of Dec. 19 at consensus college football betting apps. Make sure you claim the Bet365 promo code to bet on the FCS Playoffs.

Per the college football public betting trends, five of the Bobcats’ last six games have exceeded 53.5 points, while 11 of the Grizzlies’ 14 contests have as well.