Packers vs Bears Predictions, Picks, Latest Injury Reports for Saturday

• Expect a playoff atmosphere when the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears square off on Saturday, Dec. 20th
• The winner will take over top spot in the NFC North with just two games to play
• Below, see my top Packers vs Bears best bets, predictions, data-driven picks, plus the latest betting lines

One of the NFL’s most storied rivalries takes center stage in a pivotal Week 16 clash with significant NFC North implications, as the Green Bay Packers (9-4-1, 4-2-1 away, ATS, O/U) travel to face the Chicago Bears (10-4, 5-1 home, ATS, O/U) at Soldier Field on Saturday, Dec. 20th.

This divisional battle is priced as nearly a pick’em, with the Bears installed as slight home favorites in what promises to be a defensive struggle. The quarterback duel between Jordan Love and Caleb Williams headlines the action, but both signal-callers face uncertainty with key offensive weapons battling injuries. Stars like DJ Moore and Josh Jacobs headline extensive injury reports that could reshape the entire game.

This massive divisional clas kicks off at 8:20 pm ET. Below, I will analyze advanced stats, injury landscape, and head-to-head advantages to find the picks and best bets for Packers vs Bears in Week 16.

Packers vs Bears Best Bets: Data-Driven Picks

This latest NFL odds show this as a near coin-flip scenario, but underlying metrics reveal clear edges that savvy bettors can exploit. While both offenses have shown efficiency throughout the season, significant injury concerns and a glaring statistical disparity create actionable betting opportunities.

GB vs CHI Moneyline Pick: Bears Moneyline (-122) at BetRivers

The most compelling wager in this matchup targets the Bears to win outright at -122. While taking Green Bay as a slight road underdog (+1.5) might appear tempting, Chicago’s underlying metrics support a straight-up victory that makes the moneyline the superior value play.

The single most decisive factor favoring the Bears is their overwhelming +20 turnover differential advantage. Chicago’s defense has generated 21 interceptions and recovered nine fumbles this season, consistently flipping field position. In stark contrast, the Packers manage just a +2 turnover differential and are now without All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons, who is key to Green Bay’s ability to cause havoc.

Statistical Head-to-Head Comparison

Chicago also maintains a scoring edge, averaging 25.9 points per game compared to Green Bay’s 24.6.

More critically, the Packers’ backfield injury crisis threatens to disrupt their offensive rhythm. With Josh Jacobs and MarShawn Lloyd both failing to participate in practice, Green Bay faces potential disaster in establishing ground control and managing down-and-distance situations against a defense that thrives on creating short-field opportunities through takeaways.

GB vs CHI Game-Total Pick: Under 46.5 Total Points (-111)

Despite both teams combining to average 50.5 points per game, the extensive injury reports for both support a more defensive slugfest in a de facto playoff game.

Green Bay’s Offensive Concerns:

• Potential absence of top two running backs (Jacobs and Lloyd) fundamentally alters their offensive identity
• Compromised ground game forces longer third-down situations against a takeaway-hungry defense
• Limited receiver depth with Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks both nursing injuries

Chicago’s Offensive Limitations:

• Key receivers Luther Burden III and Rome Odunze missing practice creates target distribution problems
• D’Andre Swift’s groin injury limits the primary ground threat
• Reduced passing game efficiency forces more conservative play-calling

With both offenses potentially operating at reduced capacity, expect a field position battle dominated by defensive schemes and clock control rather than explosive scoring drives.

Best Player Prop to Bet: Caleb Williams Over 0.5 Interceptions (+108)

This player prop offers exceptional value at plus-money odds. While Williams has protected the football admirably this season (only 10 team turnovers), the circumstances favor Green Bay’s defense creating a takeaway opportunity.

With Williams’ top receiving targets potentially compromised by injury, he may be forced to extend plays or attempt throws into tighter coverage windows. At +116 odds, this represents outstanding value on a realistic outcome in a high-stakes divisional contest where defensive pressure typically creates turnover opportunities.

Packers vs Bears Public-Betting Breakdown: Sharp Money Backs Home Favorite

This weekend’s NFL public betting splits show razor-thin margins on all markets. Chicago is getting 58% of moneyline handle on 48% of bets, along with 55% of ATS handle on the same percentage of wagers.

On the total, the 60% of money is on the over on 53% of the bets.

The moneyline market reveals a potential split between recreational and professional money, with larger wagers supporting the favored Bears despite public sentiment leaning toward the underdog Packers.

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears Current Odds

Odds as of 2:39 pm ET, December 19.

After removing the bookmaker’s commission, the normalized probabilities indicate a 52.4% implied win probability for the Bears and 47.6% for the Packers, confirming the market’s assessment of a closely contested battle.

A $20 wager on Chicago -122

Injury Report: Critical Players to Monitor

Both teams face significant injury concerns that could dramatically impact Saturday’s outcome. The health status of several key offensive contributors remains uncertain heading into this divisional showdown.

Team Statistical Comparison: Identifying Key Matchups

The statistical comparison reveals several key battlegrounds that support the Bears moneyline. Chicago’s ground game superiority (152.2 yards per game vs. 117.0) becomes magnified with Green Bay’s backfield injury crisis, potentially forcing the Packers into obvious passing situations where the Bears’ league-leading takeaway rate (2.1 per game) can create short fields.

Jordan Love (Passing Yards O/U 228.5) faces immense pressure against a defense that has picked off 21 passes this season.

The time of possession differential (Chicago +4:14 per game) indicates the Bears’ preference for controlling pace through their ground attack, which aligns perfectly with a lower-scoring affair dominated by defensive schemes and field-position battles rather than explosive offensive displays.

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