Live US Open Predictions, & Best Bets for Round 3

• Round 3 of the US Open tees off today, with Wyndham Clark leading by 4 strokes
• Collin Morikawa leads the field in birdies this week, and is a great live outright bet at +1861
• See my live US Open predictions and best bets for Round 3, below

We’re halfway through the 2026 US Open and, so far, Shinnecock Hills hasn’t shown its teeth. Prior to this year, the tournament had been contested four times at this venue, with only three players finishing under par. Yet, after two rounds this week, 10 players sit in red figures led by 2023 champ Wyndham Clark at -7.

I can’t imagine the USGA is thrilled with that, but with fierce winds anticipated for today, Shinnecock Hills should play extremely firm and fast, bringing big numbers into the equation.

With the conditions expected to get much tougher, I’ve compiled my favorite bets for today and the rest of the tournament. Keep reading for my live US Open predictions and best bets for Round 3, below.

Live US Open Predictions for Round 3

Prediction Markets

2026 US Open Prices

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Kalshi

Wyndham Clark

35%

Xander Schauffele

13%

Matt Fitzpatrick

11%

Scottie Scheffler

8%

Collin Morikawa

5%

Rory McIlroy

5%

Tom Kim

4%

Sam Burns

3%

Sam Stevens

3%

Justin Thomas

3%

Predict

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Live US Open Best Bet #1: Collin Morikawa to Win 5¢ (+1861) at Kalshi

In the past 30 U.S. Opens, the eventual champion was leading or within two strokes after 36 holes in all but three tournaments. But this is Shinnecock Hills, a course known for leads evaporating in the blink of an eye. Several stars are lurking with seven shots of Clark, and my favorite to make a move is Collin Morikawa.

The two-time Major champ fired the round of the day on Friday, carding a pristine 65 to vault up the leaderboard. He enters moving day five shots back, but he leads the field in birdies this week and is a phenomenal wind player. Morikawa boasts the eighth best wind metrics per my model, thanks to his elite ability to control the golf ball.

He’s one of the most dominant approach players in the field, and is extremely accurate off the tee. His short game has turned the corner this year, and he’s already gained 2.09 strokes on the green through two rounds. After a midseason slump, he’s quietly been trending back to the superb form he flashed at the start of the season, and now he’s ready to break through for his first US Open title.

Live US Open Best Bet #2: Hideki Matsuyama Over Nico Echavarria in Round 3 (-133 at bet365)

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Moving over to the Round 3 matchups market, where I love Hideki Matsuyama to beat Nico Echavarria. Neither player is enjoying a particularly strong ball striking week, but the long term approach data drastically favors Matsuyama. He entered the week ranked 17th in iron play, compared to 64th for Echavarria. Matsuyama also boasts the vastly superior short game (14th vs 68th in strokes gained around the green), giving him the advantage in scrambling.

Furthermore, Matsuyama thrives in the wind, while Echavarria struggles badly. Per my model, Matsuyama ranks 9th in wind metrics, while Echavarria sits 87th.

Live US Open Best Bet #3: Chris Gotterup Top-10 (+1275 at DraftKings)

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For my final wager, I’m looking at Chris Gotterup to sneak into the top-10 by tournament’s end. Gotterup was a very trendy pre-tourament pick in the US open odds, based on his elite ball striking metrics, especially off the tee. He struggled to an opening round 75, but rebounded on Friday with a 69 to make the cut.

The underlying metrics suggest Gotterup should be able to build on his second round momentum, as he’s gained 2 strokes on the field with his ball striking so far, and a half a stroke with his putter. Gotterup is a top-30 wind player in my model and has a positive track record of making a move on Saturdays. Over the last 12 months, Gotterup has gained an average of 1.18 strokes on the field on moving day, which is better than all but four players remaining this weekend.