Eagles vs Commanders Picks, Predictions & Props to Target

• The Eagles are 7-point favorites over the Commanders on Saturday
• Washington is 4-1 ATS in their last five contests
• See below for my Eagles vs Commanders picks and predictions, plus the best props to target

The NFL’s infiltration of Saturday starts this week with an NFC doubleheader. First up, we’ve got the Eagles (9-5, 4-3 away) taking on the Commanders (4-10, 2-4 home), with Philly favored by a touchdown in the latest NFL odds. The Eagles can clinch the NFC East with a victory, but I’m predicting it won’t be nearly as easy as it looks.

Kickoff is scheduled for 5 pm ET from Northwest Stadium, in Landover, MD, and on FOX. Here are my Eagles vs Commanders picks and predictions, plus the best props to target.

Eagles vs Commanders Picks & Predictions

• Commanders +7 (-110 at DraftKings)

I’m plugging my nose and taking Washington +7 as my favorite Eagles vs Commanders pick. Yes, it’s ugly, but this is not the same Philly team that was once the favorite in the Super Bowl odds.

You can safely ignore the Eagles 31-0 victory over the helpless Raiders last week. Las Vegas didn’t even get off the plane for that contest, and are now the worst team in football. Philly is definitely not fixed after that result, and we should pay much closer attention to their previous four games to properly evaluate them.

In Weeks 10 through 14, the Eagles averaged 16 points per game. During that stretch, Jalen Hurts ranked 22nd in EPA/play and 23rd in success rate. He’s in the midst of one of his worst statistical seasons, and is no longer making plays with his legs. Hurts is averaging only 5 carries over his last three starts, and hasn’t scored a rushing TD in almost a month.

Life won’t get any easier on Saturday without his top lineman. Tackle Lane Johnson will miss another game, and the Eagles struggle badly when he sits. Philly is 5-8 straight up without Johnson, and 4-8-1 against the spread.

To make matters worse, the Eagles are also missing their best defensive lineman. Jalen Carter isn’t ready to return from his injury, leaving a gapping hole in the middle of their defense.

Also working against Philadelphia is a lack of rest. This will be their third game in 12 days, with one of those contests needing overtime to be decided.

As for the trends, they don’t shine positively on the Eagles either. Hurts is 1-5 ATS in December or later versus divisional opponents. He owns a 61% cover rate in September through November games, but is just 13-18-1 (42%) against the spread between December and February.

Jalen Hurts ATS by Month

Washington is not a good football team, but they are trending up. The Commanders won last week as underdogs in New York, and are two games removed from taking the AFC leading Broncos to overtime, only to lose by a point. Marcus Mariota started both of those games, and will be back under center on Saturday.

Obviously, Jayden Daniels in the future of this franchise, but the team has actually performed significantly better per EPA and success rate metrics with Mariota on the field.

Terry McLaurin is back healthy which boosts the receiving corps, while Washington ranks sixth in EPA/rush despite not having a solidified number on running back.

Defensively, they’ve looked much better since Dan Quinn took over play calling duties, and you can expect them to throw a ton of zone coverage at Hurts. That scheme has been his Kryptonite this season, as he ranks 32nd in EPA versus zone with only a 45% success rate.

Speaking of Quinn, the trends support backing him as an underdog at home. Quinn led teams are 7-4 ATS in 11 games as home underdogs, and 3-1 against the spread in that scenario inside the division.

Eagles vs Commanders Props to Target

• Devonta Smith Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at BetMGM)

In light of the zone heavy scheme Quinn likes to deploy, I’m targeting over 56.5 receiving yards for DeVonta Smith. The former Heisman winner is by far the team’s best receiver against that type of coverage, and ranks 9th out of all qualified receivers in total EPA versus zone schemes.

Smith has cleared 56.5 receiving yards in half of his past 12 games, and has at least one 26 yard reception seven of his past eight outings. Washington’s pass defense meanwhile, has surrendered the eighth most receiving yards to enemy wideouts this season, and the ninth most overall production.

PHI vs WAS Odds & Betting Lines

As always, make sure you check out the best football betting apps if you’re wagering on the total or any other market. The best book to bet Washington +7 at currently is DraftKings or Bet365, who are both offering the spread at -110 odds. Total-wise, the consensus number sits at 44.5, which seems high given the Eagles offensive struggles.

Odds as of Dec. 19 at 8:30 pm ET. Claim the Bet365 promo code before wagering on NFL this weekend.

Per the NFL public betting splits, the under is 9-5 in Philly games this season, and has hit in five straight Eagles contests dating back to the start of November.