Miami vs Texas A&M Prediction, Pick & Updated Line (Saturday, Dec. 20)

• Texas A&M is a 3.5-point favorite versus Miami in the College Football Playoff First Round Game
• The Hurricanes rank top-10 in the nation in scoring defense, opponent yards per play, and yards per carry allowed
• See my Miami vs Texas A&M prediction and pick, plus the updated line for the CFP first round game

Game 2 of the CFP first round pits #10 Miami (10-2) versus #7 Texas A&M (11-1) on Saturday, with the hometown Aggies favored by 3.5 points in the latest college football odds. The Hurricanes are one of the most controversial entries in this year’s playoff, but I’m betting they’re going to silence their critics with an upset-worthy performance.

Kickoff is set for Noon ET, 11 am local time, from Kyle Field in College Station, TX, with ABC providing the broadcast coverage.

Here is my Miami vs Texas A&M prediction and pick, plus the updated line for the Saturday, Dec. 20 showdown.

Miami vs Texas A&M Prediction and Pick

Miami just snuck into the CFP bracket this season, representing the ACC despite not even playing in the conference title game. The Hurricanes suffered a midseason lull, losing twice in a three-week stretch to inferior competition, but since then, they’ve looked like a championship contender.

Over their last four games, Miami was 4-0, with a +110 point differential. They scored 34+ points in each outing and held each opponent to 17 points or fewer. The Canes have big-game experience at the QB position with Carson Beck and one of the nation’s strongest teams in the trenches.

Let’s start with Beck, who closed the season with an 11-to-1 TD-to-INT rate over his last four starts. Beck completed 75% of his passes this season, for over 3,000 yards and 25 TD. Miami enters play ranked top-30 in most key offensive metrics, and are elite once they get into the red zone.

Malachi Toney has emerged as one of the most productive wide receivers in the country, while Mark Fletcher Jr. and the Canes’ inside zone run scheme help the team stay on schedule at the sixth-highest rate.

More importantly, Miami features one of the best offensive lines in college football. That unit grades out third in pass blocking per PFF, and 33rd in run blocking. The big boys up front hold the key to this game, as the Texas A&M front is no joke. The Aggies rank top-eight in pass rush win rate and havoc created, and top-20 in opponent EPA/play.

But it’s not all positive on the Texas A&M defensive front. DC Jay Bateman bolted for Kentucky and won’t coach in this game. The Aggies rank 106th in broken tackles allowed, and 131st in opponent red zone scoring. They’ve allowed 86 opponent possessions to cross their 40-yard line, and enemy offenses are averaging 4.4 points over those drives.

The leaky red zone defense has led to some uninspiring play down the stretch for A&M. They lost to Texas on Rivalry Week, and needed a miraculous 27-point comeback to beat South Carolina.

QB Marcel Reed put up nearly identical passing yards and TD stats as Beck, but was far less efficient. Reed completed only 62% of his throws this season, and posted just a 58% completion percentage versus top-25 programs.

The key to slowing down Reed is by getting pressure, ideally without blitzing. He struggles to read coverages when teams drop seven, and Miami has the horses to make his life miserable.

The Canes boast the top pass rush unit in the country, led by Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain Jr. They’re also top-10 in scoring defense, opponent yards per play, and yards per carry allowed, and top-15 in opponent quality drives.

Miami Defense Stats

The Aggies’ passing game is predicated on short hitches and crossers, the exact type of routes Miami excels at stopping. The Hurricanes have allowed a below-average success rate on those types of throws by enemy QBs, generating negative EPA/play on those routes.

Most advanced projection models have this game pegged closer to Texas A&M -2, so I’ll gladly take the 1.5 points of value with Miami +3.5. Given the strength of their defense, and their superior form coming in, I’m also going to sprinkle a wager on the Canes moneyline.

This game doesn’t feature anyone sitting out in the college football opt outs tracker, meaning we’ll see each team’s best on the field. The fact that it’s in College Station is a significant boost to the Aggies, but with the game kicking off at 11 am local time, I’m expecting a far less rowdy crowd than usual.

Miami vs Texas A&M Updated Line

The best place to bet Miami +3.5 right now is over at Caesars. They’re offering the line at -115 odds, while most commercial books have dropped the spread down to +3. BetMGM is the book to bet the Canes to pull off the upset, as their +140 odds are best in market.

As for the total, the number sits at 48.5 across the board. I don’t have a feel one way or another on that line, but the trends lean under.

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Odds as of Dec. 19 at consensus college football betting apps. Make sure you claim the BetMGM promo code to bet on College Football Bowl Games.

Per the college football public betting trends, the under is 7-5 in Hurricanes games this season, failing to clear the total by an average of 3.7 points.