Illinois vs Missouri Predictions, Picks & Betting Lines

• Illinois’ No. 27 RPI ranking showcases its strength against quality competition, making it a compelling favorite to cover the 8.5-point spread against Missouri
• I’m targeting the over 155.5 largely because both teams push the pace and are averaging 80+ points per game
• Public money heavily backs Missouri to cover the spread (73.58% of handle), creating a classic fade opportunity

The annual Braggin’ Rights rivalry reignites as the Illinois Fighting Illini and Missouri Tigers clash tonight in St. Louis. Tipoff is at 8 pm (ET) on FS1.

Illinois is 8-3 — but all three losses came against AP ranked teams. The Illini also have wins over then-No. 11 Texas Tech and then-No. 13 Tennessee.

Missouri is 10-2 but far less battle-tested. The Tigers lost to then-No. 21 Kansas, 80-60, in their only game against a ranked opponent. Mizzou’s RPI is No. 153, reflecting a considerably weaker strength of schedule.

This shapes up as backcourt battle.

Guards Kylan Boswell (16.1 PPG) and sharpshooter Andrej Stojakovic (15.5 PPG) lead Illinois, which scored at least 75 points against four of its five ranked opponents. Missouri counters with Mark Mitchell (18.1 PPG) and Jacob Crews, the nation’s fourth-best three-point shooter (52.9%).

Illinois vs Missouri Expert Picks & Predictions

How real are the 10-2 Tigers? We’re about to find out. The Fighting Illini have faced adversity against elite competition, while the Tigers have largely coasted against inferior opposition, setting up a classic mismatch in this storied rivalry.

Missouri’s 153rd RPI ranking stems from a schedule strength of just 0.4124, meaning they’ve essentially been stat-padding. Illinois built its No. 27 RPI on a grueling 0.6117 strength of schedule.

The Fighting Illini possess multiple advantages that Missouri hasn’t encountered this season. Their balanced offensive attack features four double-digit scorers, led by Boswell’s 16.1 PPG and Stojakovic’s 15.5 PPG production. More important, Illinois dominates the interior battles. David Mirkovic’s 8.8 rebounds per game and Zvonimir Ivisic’s 2.2 blocks per contest represent a size and athleticism advantage that Missouri’s frontcourt cannot match.

Illinois has demonstrated the ability to separate from lesser opponents throughout their challenging slate. Their 47.8% field goal percentage and superior rebounding (38.7 RPG vs 34.7) create multiple paths to victory. The Tigers’ impressive 57.9% team shooting percentage becomes far less relevant when facing their first legitimate defensive test of the season.

• Prediction: Illinois 86, Missouri 74
• Best Bet: Illinois -8.5 (-113 at DraftKings)

Public Betting Analysis: Following the Sharp-Money Trail

The college basketball public betting data reveal a split between public perception and sharp-money movement. Recreational bettors gravitate toward Missouri’s superior record and underdog appeal, but that’s not where informed money is flowing.

Spread Betting: Public Embraces the Underdog

Bettors are backing the Tigers to keep this rivalry competitive:

• Missouri Tigers +8.5: 61.73% of bets, 73.58% of handle
• Illinois Fighting Illini -8.5: 38.27% of bets, 26.42% of handle

The handle percentage exceeding the bet percentage suggests larger wagers are backing Missouri, indicating either sharp action or high-stakes public support. This creates a contrarian opportunity, as my analysis supports fading the public consensus in favor of Illinois covering the spread.

Moneyline: Overwhelming Favorite Support

Despite taking points with Missouri, the public shows little confidence in an outright Tigers victory:

• Illinois Fighting Illini: 92.6% of bets, 78.58% of handle
• Missouri Tigers: 7.4% of bets, 21.42% of handle

This massive disparity reflects realistic expectations about Illinois’ superior talent level, even as bettors hope Missouri can stay within the number.

Total Betting: Anticipating Offensive Fireworks

Public sentiment aligns with my over recommendation, expecting both teams to contribute to a high-scoring affair:

• Over 155.5: 64.37% of bets, 66.09% of handle
• Under 155.5: 35.63% of bets, 33.91% of handle

The consistent two-thirds majority on the over reflects confidence in both teams’ offensive capabilities and the fast-paced nature expected in this emotional rivalry setting.

Statistical Breakdown: Who Has the Edge?

Here’s how Illinois and Mizzou stack up ahead of Monday night’s showdown:

Illinois Fighting Illini vs Missouri Tigers Betting Odds

The sportsbook consensus clearly reflects Illinois’ statistical advantages. Monday’s college basketball odds recognize the significant talent and schedule strength disparities between the programs.

• Moneyline: Illinois -386 / Missouri +302
• Spread: Illinois -8.5 (-113) / Missouri +8.5 (-107)
• Total: Over 155.5 (-109) / Under 155.5 (-111)

Odds represents consensus lines as of 9:24 am ET, Dec. 22..

It’s worth noting: bet365 Sportsbook is offering Missouri even more cushion, listing the Tigers as 9-point underdogs.

The moneyline pricing establishes Illinois as overwhelming favorites, with their -386 odds translating to substantial betting requirements for modest returns. After removing the sportsbook vig, these odds imply Illinois holds a 76.15% probability of victory, compared to Missouri’s 23.85% implied chance of pulling off the upset.

From a payout perspective, the risk-reward dynamic heavily favors the underdog. A successful $20 wager on Illinois (-386) returns just $5.18 in profit, while the same $20 bet on Missouri (+302) would generate $60.40 in winnings.

However, the statistical analysis strongly supports the favorite despite the modest returns. Illinois’ superior talent should overcome rivalry-game emotions to cover the spread in an entertaining offensive showcase.