Cleveland Cavaliers vs New York Knicks Picks & Predictions for Christmas Day

• Donovan Mitchell vs. Jalen Brunson is the matchup to watch.
• Cleveland’s defensive anchor Evan Mobley and key floor-spacer Max Strus are out.
• Our top plays target New York to cover the -5.5 spread and Donovan Mitchell going over his 27.5 point total.

NBA All-Stars Donovan Mitchell and Jalen Brunson get things started on Christmas Day with a highly-anticipated showdown at Madison Square Garden between two of the NBA’s top scorers.

Mitchell (30.7 PPG) is the fourth-leading scorer in the NBA. Brunson (29.1) is sixth. Their matchup is the biggest storyline when the Cleveland Cavaliers face the New York Knicks at noon on ABC and ESPN.

We will analyze the matchup from every betting angle, breaking down key statistics, public betting trends, and line movement to deliver our expert picks and best bets.

Knicks vs Cavaliers Best Bets: Sharp Action Points to New York Blowout

The NBA public betting market has delivered a resounding verdict on this Christmas Day clash, and the message centers entirely around Cleveland’s depleted roster. Cleveland is missing defensive anchor Evan Mobley and key floor-spacer Max Strus. After opening as modest -3 point home favorites, the Knicks have seen sharp money drive the line all the way to -5.5 at DraftKings, representing a substantial 2.5-point move that screams market confidence in the home team’s superiority.

Without Mobley’s rim protection and rebounding presence, Cleveland’s defense loses its foundational piece against a Knicks offense that ranks 4th in the NBA in scoring (120.6 PPG). The absence of Strus will allow New York’s 7th-ranked defense to load up on Mitchell without fear of kick-out opportunities. (We don’t expect this to slow him down, however.) This personnel mismatch becomes even more pronounced when considering the Knicks’ dominance on the glass — they rank 3rd in total rebound percentage (52.7%) and should feast on offensive boards against Cleveland’s undermanned frontcourt.

The situational trends support backing the healthier squad. New York is a strong contender as home favorites this season, while Cleveland struggles as road underdogs.

Best Bet: New York Knicks -5.5 (-108) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Best Player Prop: Donovan Mitchell Over 27.5 Points (-110)

This will be Mitchell’s first Christmas Day game since the 2021-22 season. Expect fireworks.

Mitchell opened the season with 31 points against the Knicks. He has topped 40 twice already in December.

Mitchell’s usage rate should skyrocket with Cleveland’s limited offensive options. With the game script likely forcing Cleveland to play catch-up, Mitchell should see increased shot attempts and free throw opportunities.

Our Pick: Take the Over

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Market Movement and Betting Trends Analysis

The most significant betting trend in this matchup is the dramatic real-time line movement that tells the story of sharp money identifying value. This live-action provides crucial insight into how professional bettors are approaching this holiday clash.

• Decisive Spread Movement: The line has shifted 2.5 points from New York -3 to -5.5, indicating overwhelming professional money backing the Knicks. This movement accelerated once Cleveland’s injury report was finalized, showing little confidence in a shorthanded Cavaliers squad on the road. It’s worth noting that Mitchell appeared on the injury report as “illness,” but he scored 30 points Monday night in Cleveland’s win.
• Explosive Total Adjustment: The game total has skyrocketed six full points from 229.5 to 235.5, reflecting strong market consensus that Mobley’s absence will lead to defensive breakdowns and increased pace. This represents one of the largest total adjustments of the season.
• Situational Angles: The Knicks are 12-4 ATS as home favorites this season, while Cleveland sits at just 4-9 ATS as road underdogs. Additionally, situational angles may play a role when teams missing their starting center face opponents with elite rebounding like New York.

Public vs Sharp Money: Classic Fade Spot Emerges

The public betting data reveals a fascinating contradiction between recreational and professional money, creating a textbook fade-the-public scenario for sharp bettors.

Moneyline Dynamics: While 78.4% of all tickets back the Knicks to win outright, the money distribution tells a tighter story with Cleveland actually attracting 50.6% of the total handle. This suggests larger, more sophisticated wagers see upset potential despite the injury concerns.

Spread Contradiction: In direct opposition to the line movement favoring New York, a massive 82.2% of spread bets and 81.3% of the handle support Cleveland +5.5. This creates a classic contrarian opportunity, as our Knicks recommendation runs counter to heavy public sentiment while aligning with the sharp money that moved the line.

Total Consensus: The only area of agreement sees 80.9% of bets and an even stronger 85.3% of money backing the over. This overwhelming consensus aligns perfectly with our analysis and the market’s dramatic six-point adjustment, indicating widespread expectation for an up-tempo, high-scoring affair at Madison Square Garden.

Statistical Breakdown: Knicks Hold Clear Advantages

Who has the edge? New York, in most key areas.

Injury Report: Cavaliers Severely Compromised

The injury situation represents the single most important factor in this Christmas Day matchup, with Cleveland’s absences fundamentally altering their identity while New York remains largely healthy.

The Cavaliers’ injury report reads like a perfect storm for the road underdog. Losing Mobley against the NBA’s 3rd-best rebounding team creates an obvious mismatch that should manifest in second-chance points and easy baskets. Strus’s absence compounds the problem by shrinking the floor for Mitchell, allowing New York’s defense to send extra help without consequence.

Cleveland’s frontcourt depth has been completely eliminated, forcing them to rely on smaller lineups that will struggle against New York’s size and physicality. The Knicks should attack the paint aggressively, both in transition and halfcourt sets, knowing Cleveland lacks the personnel to provide adequate rim protection.

Knicks vs Cavaliers Betting Odds

The current betting market reflects a clear consensus that the healthy home favorite holds significant advantages over their depleted Eastern Conference rival.

Odds as of December 22, 2025, from consensus sportsbooks.

The Knicks’ -213 moneyline translates to a 65.8% implied probability after removing the vig, while Cleveland’s +176 odds suggest a 34.2% chance of the upset. A $20 wager on New York would profit $9.39 if successful, while the same bet on Cleveland would return $35.20 in profit.

The most telling aspect remains the dramatic line movement since opening. The spread has shifted 2.5 points from Knicks -3 to -5.5, while the total has exploded six points from 229.5 to 235.5. This adjustment occurred rapidly once Cleveland’s injury report was confirmed, with sharp money immediately recognizing the value in backing the healthier squad and anticipating a high-scoring game due to defensive breakdowns.

The market has essentially priced in a scenario where the Knicks control the game from start to finish, forcing Cleveland into an uptempo style that favors the over while creating multiple scoring opportunities for New York’s balanced attack.