San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder Best Bets, Picks & Betting Lines

Published: December 25, 2025 at 10:00 am EST

OKC star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. — Dec 22, 2025; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) dribbles down the court against the Memphis Grizzlies during the second half at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Will Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren play? Their TBD status has caused the game total to surge to 234.5 at some sportsbooks.
Most bettors and handle are supporting San Antonio to cover the large +10.5 spread.
We offer our best bets, including a Shai Gilgeous-Alexander prop bet.

Will Wemby play?

That’s the key storyline surrounding a blockbuster Christmas Day showdown between the reigning NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder and top contender San Antonio Spurs. Tipoff is set for 2:30 pm, ET, on ABC and ESPN.

This game presents a unique challenge for bettors as both squads are dealing with significant injuries that could dramatically shift the handicap. The Thunder, typically dominant at home, could be without star big man Chet Holmgren, who missed their last contest. The visiting underdog Spurs face a similar situation, as their own phenom, Victor Wembanyama, is listed as questionable.

This uncertainty places the spotlight squarely on the healthy superstars, with MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander looking to carry a depleted Thunder squad against De’Aaron Fox’s explosive scoring ability.

Our analysis breaks down the key statistics, player props, and betting angles to help you find an edge in what has become an unpredictable holiday showdown.

Spurs vs Thunder Prediction & Best Bets

The dramatic line movement tells its own story. NBA public betting shows how the total surged, opening at 227 and rocketing to 234.5 at some books — a 7.5-point jump that clearly indicates the market is anticipating a high-scoring affair. This movement stems from the likely absence of one or both elite rim protectors, Wembanyama and/or Holmgren. Their potential sidelines would open up the paint, creating easier scoring opportunities for guards and forwards on both sides.

The spread movement from Thunder -9.5 to -10.5 suggests the market believes Wembanyama’s absence would be more detrimental to the Spurs. However, laying double-digit points with a team that could also be missing a core piece presents significant risk. San Antonio has enough offensive firepower with Fox’s penetration ability to keep this game within reach, especially if Holmgren sits and opens up driving lanes.

DraftKings still has the over at 233.5 on Dec. 23. The combination of potentially compromised rim protection and two explosive offensive units makes this inflated total attractive. Even with the high number, the offensive firepower led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Fox creates a perfect storm for a shootout.

Best Bet: Over 233.5 (-105) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Best Prop Bet: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 31.5

It’s Christmas Day, no better time to show out. Expect reigning NBA MVP Gilgeous-Alexander to do that regardless of whether Wembanyama plays.

Adding to the hype, this will be Gilgeous-Alexander’s debut on Christmas Day.

The betting consensus puts Gilgeous-Alexander’s Over at 31.5 points. FanDuel is offering -114 odds on him hitting the over.

Expect one of the NBA’s most explosive scorers to put on a show and surpass the over.

Public Betting Splits: Sharp Money vs Casual Bettors

The NBA public betting data reveals a fascinating divide between casual ticket-buyers and larger, more confident wagers, particularly on the moneyline.

Moneyline: A Tale of Two Bet Sizes
Oklahoma City attracts a staggering 94.6% of all moneyline bets but only 60.9% of the actual money wagered. Conversely, San Antonio draws just 5.4% of the tickets but accounts for 39.1% of the handle. This massive gap suggests casual bettors are placing small wagers on the Thunder, while a smaller number of larger, more confident bets back the Spurs as a live underdog.

Spread: Consensus on the Underdog
Unlike the moneyline split, the spread market shows clear alignment. San Antonio receives 64.3% of the bets and 63.9% of the money to cover +10.5. This harmony between ticket count and handle indicates broad agreement that the line is inflated, especially given the injury uncertainty. This public sentiment directly supports our value pick of Spurs +10.5.

Total: Overwhelming Support for the Over
The most lopsided market is the total, where 84.8% of all bets and 87.7% of the money back the Over. This heavy action supports the significant line movement and reinforces the market’s belief that compromised rim protection will lead to a high-scoring affair, aligning perfectly with our Over 234.5 recommendation.

Statistical Breakdown: Who Has the Edge?

The numbers heavily favor Oklahoma City.

Team Stat	San Antonio	Oklahoma City
Offensive Rating	116.4 (9th)	118.0 (T-3rd)
Defensive Rating	109.9 (6th)	101.7 (1st)
Points Per Game	120.1 (7th)	122.3 (2nd)
Opp. Points Per Game	113.7 (9th)	106.2 (1st)
Pace	100.4 (13th)	100.2 (T-14th)
Field Goal %	48.3% (27th)	49.2% (21st)
True Shooting %	59.8% (T-5th)	61.0% (3rd)
Assist/Turnover Ratio	1.8 (27th)	2.1 (2nd)
Total Rebound %	52.6% (4th)	50.4% (13th)
Second Chance Pts/G	16.7 (27th)	12.6 (29th)
Points in Paint/G	50.4 (14th)	52.3 (7th)

Injury Report: Wembanyama & Holmgren Status Shapes Handicap

The betting lines are moving dramatically due to injury concerns. Bettors must monitor pregame news closely, as the final active rosters will be the single most important factor in determining value.

Player Name	Position	Injury	Status	Fantasy/Betting Impact
Victor Wembanyama	F-C	Calf	Day To Day	The entire San Antonio handicap hinges on his status. If active, his rim protection slows Oklahoma City’s offense. If sidelined, the Spurs lose their defensive anchor, making the Over 234.5 and SGA’s scoring props significantly more attractive.
Chet Holmgren	C-F	Back	Day To Day	The linchpin of the Thunder’s league-best defense. His absence would open driving lanes for De’Aaron Fox and severely compromise Oklahoma City’s rim protection, strongly supporting both the Over and Spurs +10.5.
Isaiah Hartenstein	C-F	Leg	Day To Day	A crucial backup center for Oklahoma City. If Holmgren sits, Hartenstein’s availability becomes paramount. Should both miss time, the Thunder would lack interior presence, making them vulnerable on the glass.
Alex Caruso	G	Finger	Day To Day	One of the league’s premier perimeter defenders. His absence creates a softer matchup for De’Aaron Fox, allowing more freedom to score and create, further supporting the Over.
Nikola Topić	G	Groin	Out	The rookie guard remains sidelined indefinitely, already factored into Oklahoma City’s rotation and current betting lines.
Thomas Sorber	C	Knee	Out for Season	The rookie center’s season-ending ACL tear represents a long-term loss that doesn’t impact this specific game’s handicap.

Injury concerns have been priced into the market, causing the total to soar. If the Thunder are without multiple defensive stalwarts, they’d be forced into a shootout where Gilgeous-Alexander’s offensive brilliance becomes even more crucial.

San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder Odds

Bet Type	San Antonio	Oklahoma City
Spread	+10.5 (-110)	-10.5 (-110)
Moneyline	+384	-510
Total Points	Over 234.5 (-112)	Under 234.5 (-108)

Odds as of December 23, 2025, from consensus odds.

Oklahoma City is a heavy favorite. Its -510 moneyline odds translate to a vig-free win probability of approximately 80.2%, compared to just 19.8% for the underdog Spurs (+384). A successful $20 wager on an upset San Antonio victory would yield a profit of $76.80, while the same bet on Oklahoma City would return just $3.92.

The most telling aspect is the dramatic line movement. The total opened at 227 points and surged 7.5 points to 234.5 — one of the largest single-game adjustments this season. This massive shift clearly indicates the market adjusting to the possibility of Wembanyama and Holmgren not playing. The spread also moved from an opening Thunder -9.5 to -10.5, suggesting early money viewed Wembanyama’s potential absence as more detrimental, despite Oklahoma City’s own injury concerns.

This line movement, combined with the public betting splits favoring the Spurs to cover and the Over to cash, creates a compelling betting environment where the market has potentially overreacted to injury uncertainty, providing value on both our recommended plays.

Chris Wright

A 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, The Indianapolis Star and News & Observer, Chris Wright is an Evergreen and AI editor for Saturday Down South, Saturday Tradition, Crossing Broad, Sports Betting Dime and ESNY.

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