Lions vs Vikings Predictions, Picks & Betting Lines for Christmas Day

• The Lions are 7.5-point favorites over the Vikings on Christmas Day
• J.J. McCarthy (hand) is out for Minnesota, paving the way for Max Brosmer to start
• See my Lions vs Vikings predictions and picks below, along with the latest betting lines

Put on the ugliest Christmas sweater you can find, because my Lions vs Vikings prediction is not pretty. I’m predicting a Minnesota cover, catching over a touchdown in the latest NFL odds, despite the fact that Detroit’s playoff life is on the line in the NFL playoff bracket.

Keep reading for all of my Lions vs Vikings predictions and picks, plus the latest betting lines for Christmas Day football.

Lions vs Vikings Predictions

• Minnesota Vikings +7.5 (-114) at Caesars Sportsbook

Nobody wants to bet Minnesota on Christmas Day, especially since J.J. McCarthy (hand) is out, and Max Brosmer will start. The last time Brosmer started the Vikings were humiliated in Seattle, but there is a big difference between the Seahawks defense and the Lions.

You might also think Minnesota is a fade since they have nothing to play for, but historically you’d be wrong. Over the past 35 years, eliminated teams playing teams that need to win over the final two weeks of the season are covering at a 61% clip. That scenario applies to multiple matchups in Week 17, but betting against the Lions in their current state is especially enticing.

Let’s start with their injury concerns. Multiple offensive linemen are either out or very questionable, while Detroit’s top-three defensive backs are on IR. To make matters worse, two of their current starting corners are questionable, meaning we could see a secondary full of practice squad talent.

Make no mistake, Brosmer is no NFL MVP odds-caliber QB, but even he can find success against third and fourth-stringers. Also helping Brosmer is a lacklustre Lions pass rush, that has disappeared over the past seven weeks. Couple that with Detroit’s poor coverage skills that have yielded the third most receiving yards and the second most touchdowns to enemy wideouts, and we’ve got the ingredients for a Minnesota upset.

Detroit Lions Defense vs WR

As for the Vikings defense, they just held the Giants to 13 points and 141 yards, and haven’t surrendered a passing TD to a wide receiver or tight end in six weeks. Minnesota is as blitz happy as they come, and get home at what should be an alarming rate to potential Lions backers. The Vikings rank third in pressure rate, and we all know much Jared Goff struggles when the heat is on.

Ultimately, this a lost season for Detroit. A preseason Super Bowl 60 odds contender, the Lions are one loss or one Green Bay win away from postseason elimination. They’re hurt up and down their roster, and don’t deserve to be laying this many points in a divisional game on the road. They might win and keep their playoff hopes alive, but if they do, it won’t be by margin.

Lions vs Vikings Picks

• Jahmyr Gibbs Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-118) at BetMGM

Back to Goff, and his struggles against pressure. His average yards per attempt dips 2.0 yards under duress, meaning he’s looking to get the ball out short and quick.

Versus a pass rush as fierce as Minnesota’s, that signals a big day for Jahmyr Gibbs through the air. Gibbs has seen 27 targets in his last three starts alone, and has more catches than every other RB not named Christian McCaffrey.

DET Lions vs MIN Vikings Betting Lines for Christmas Day

Before making any Christmas Day football wager, be sure to consult the best football betting apps. The best place to wager on Vikings +7.5 is over at Caesars, who are offering a spread that is a full point higher than most commercial books like DraftKings.

Total-wise, 43.5 is the consensus number around the industry, which is incredibly low for any Detroit contest. No Lions game so far has closed under 45.5, and only three of their outings have produced fewer than 47 points.

Odds as of Dec. 24. New customers can claim the DraftKings promo code and get a bonus to bet on Christmas Day NFL.

Per the NFL public betting percentages, bettors agree the total is a bit short, as 64% of the over/under tickets and 72% of the handle are currently on the over.