Best Bets for D-Backs vs Pirates (July 28)

• After taking the opener, the Pittsburgh Pirates are -120 home favorites Tuesday vs the Arizona D-backs
• Arizona has dropped five of its last six against the Pirates
• Read below for the my Diamondbacks vs Pirates best bets and updated odds

The Arizona Diamondbacks (55-52) and Pittsburgh Pirates (55-52) continue their series after Pittsburgh’s narrow 3-2 victory in the previous matchup.

With that win, Pittsburgh pulled into a tie for the third and final Wild Card berth with the Diamondbacks in the National Leage.

Arizona has struggled against the Pirates lately, dropping five of the last six, and find themselves as road dogs in the MLB odds.

Action gets underway at 6:40pm ET from PNC Park in Pittsburgh, in a game that can be seen live nationally on MLB TV.

Diamondbacks vs Pirates Odds

The graphic above shows the best available odds, which are subject to change. Use theScore Bet promo code to wager on Diamondbacks vs Pirates and other MLB action.

Pittsburgh enters as a slight home favorite at -110 on the moneyline at FanDuel, while Arizona sits at +100 to win outright at bet365.

There’s a lot of juice on the runline, where both teams have been given 1.5 runs. Taking the D-backs comes at steep -205 odds, and the Pirates aren’t much better at -182.

The total has held at 9 runs since opening.

ARI Diamondbacks vs PIT Pirates Best Bets

Checking the MLB probable pitchers, the road underdog Diamondbacks will send Brandon Pfaadt to the mound, while the home favorite Pirates counter will counter with Bubba Chandler.

Although the historical sample in the MLB batter vs pitcher stats is small, Jake Mangum has had clear success against Pfaadt, going 2-for-2 with an extra-base hit. Ryan O’Hearn brings the most experience against Arizona’s starter, holding a respectable .286 average over seven at-bats. Brandon Lowe, meanwhile, has struggled, striking out twice in three plate appearances without recording a hit.

For the visitors, Arizona’s lineup has not consistently solved Chandler. Only Ketel Marte and Ildemaro Vargas have managed extra-base hits off the right-hander in limited action. That early success from Chandler suggests hitters in the lower part of the Diamondbacks’ order could have trouble reaching base tonight.

Pick 1: Pirates Moneyline (-108 /52¢ at Kalshi)

Prediction Markets

ML Prediction

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Kalshi

Pittsburgh ML

52%

Predict

Pittsburgh is the side I’m backing at the current number. The Pirates have already taken the series opener, they are at home, and Arizona’s pitching depth is in bad shape with multiple starters and late-inning arms unavailable. At 52¢, the price is short enough to justify backing the healthier pitching setup and home-field advantage.

Pick 2: Over 8.5 Runs (-127 / 56¢ at Kalshi)

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O/U Prediction

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Over 8.5 Runs

56%

Predict

Over 8.5 is the best total play at 56¢. PNC Park has played as a hitter-friendly venue this season, ranking sixth in runs scored with 10.62 runs per game. The park is also producing 17.89 hits and 6.31 extra-base hits per game, which supports a full-game over rather than relying only on home runs.

The game will be played at PNC Park, a venue that has been notably hitter-friendly during the 2026 season. According to the MLB park factors, the stadium ranks sixth overall in runs scored. Consider these key per-game metrics:

• Runs: 10.62
• Hits: 17.89
• Extra-base hits: 6.31
• Home runs: 2.33

While the park’s dimensions can limit home run explosions, it creates a high volume of contact. Nearly 18 hits per game shows how exploitable the outfield gaps can be. For bettors, this environment clearly supports overs in hits and total bases while making life more difficult for both starting pitchers.