NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 17: Bet on Quinn Ewers and the Dolphins?

• NFL Week 17 is underway
• In my NFL ATS picks this week, I am looking at two underdogs and one favorite
• See below for all my NFL picks against the spread for Week 17, plus my NFL best bet analysis

After three NFL games went down on Christmas, 13 games remain in Week 17. We have a lot of intriguing matchups as teams try to clinch their spot or seeding in the NFL playoff bracket.

There are two games on Saturday, ten on Sunday, and then Monday Night Football kicks off as we near the end of the regular season. Let’s make it count!

Keep reading for my NFL Week 17 picks against the spread and my best bets for Sunday, December 28.

NFL Week 17 Picks Against the Spread

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NFL ATS Pick #1: Browns +3 vs Steelers

The Steelers are coming off a huge win vs Detroit last week, but I am fading them in Week 17.

Divisional home underdogs are always great to bet, especially when they are in the AFC North. There is a chance that Pittsburgh will already have the division wrapped up if the Ravens lose to the Packers on Saturday. If they do, they will likely sit some key starters in this game.

If the Ravens win, Pittsburgh will be focused on their Week 18 matchup vs Baltimore. Either way, I am not expecting a great effort from the Steelers on Sunday.

Cleveland is a tough place to play, and Myles Garrett will make it difficult for Pittsburgh to move the ball consistently. The O/U in this game is 33.5, so points will be hard to come by. This is a situation that screams take the underdog.

The Browns have shown me enough over the last few weeks that they can compete. They only lost to the Bills by three points last week at home.

Cleveland would love nothing more than to beat their division rival in front of their home fans.

NFL Week 17 Pick: Browns +3 (-102)

NFL ATS Pick #2: Dolphins +6 vs Buccaneers

I feel like I have been fading the Buccaneers every week, and it has been working, so I am not going to stop now.

Tampa Bay has failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games, and they are just 1-6 straight up during that span. Now they are laying six points on the road. I cannot trust them to cover the spread in this situation, even if they are playing Quinn Ewers and the Dolphins.

The game got away from Miami last week against the Bengals, but the Dolphins still put up 389 yards total on offense. Ewers threw for 260 yards, and outside of a few mistakes, he looked comfortable in Mike McDaniel’s offense. He now has another week under his belt preparing as the starter and should improve against a Tampa Bay defense that has given up over 28 points per game over their last seven.

The Buccaneers are also in an interesting scheduling spot. They just played the Panthers and lost. As long as they beat Carolina in Week 18, they will win the NFC South and make the NFL Playoffs. Essentially, this game does not mean much to Tampa Bay.

The Dolphins looked competent last week, and there is no way I can lay six points on the road with the way the Buccaneers have been playing. Bet on Quinn Ewers to cover his first NFL spread on Sunday.

• NFL Week 17 Pick: Dolphins +6 (-110)

NFL ATS Pick #3: Bills -1 vs Eagles

This could be the game of Week 17, as both the Bills and Eagles are fighting for playoff seeding. Both have clinched a playoff spot, but a win could go a long way, especially if a few other teams lose.

Buffalo is back at home, where they are tough to beat. The Bills are 6-1 straight up when playing in Buffalo this season, and they are happy to be back after playing just one home game over their last five.

Both of these teams have looked dysfunctional at times, but I am going to side with the home team in this game. The Eagles were struggling offensively, but then they were able to get right with games vs the Raiders and the Commanders. Their defense hadn’t looked that much better until the last couple of weeks.

They will be tested with Josh Allen, James Cook, and the rest of the Bills offense.

Buffalo tends to play at the level of their competition, so I am not worried about their close game vs. the Browns last week. The Bills are 5-0 against the spread vs teams that are above .500 this season.

Even though the Eagles have looked better over the last couple of weeks, I cannot bet against the Bills at home late in the season.

NFL Week 17 Pick: Bills -1 (-110)