Georgia Southern vs App State Prediction, Line & Opt Outs

• Georgia Southern is a 7.5-point favorite over App State in the JLAB Birmingham Bowl on Monday
• The Mountaineers are missing their top-two quarterbacks and their number one wide receiver
• See my Georgia Southern vs App State prediction, plus the latest betting line and opt outs

History is on the line in Monday’s JLAB Birmingham Bowl, as Georgia Southern (6-6) is looking to become the first squad to beat a team in the regular season and in a Bowl Game. That team is App State (5-7), who’s only playing in this contest due to the flurry of programs who’ve opted out of Bowl season.

Online sportsbooks are expecting a lopsided Eagles victory in the latest college football odds, in large part due to the significant amount of opt outs the Mountaineers are dealing with.

The action is set for 2 pm ET from Protective Stadium, in Birmingham, AL, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Here is my Georgia Southern vs App State prediction, plus the latest betting line and opt outs for the JLAB Birmingham Bowl.

Georgia Southern vs App State Prediction

I’m rolling with the Eagles in this contest, as they already featured the superior offense before all of the App State opt outs. Georgia Southern ranked higher in points per game, total offense and yards per play. They were nearly 100 spots higher in third down conversion rate, and should be able to feast versus a poor Mountaineers pass defense.

App State Pass Defense

App State ranked 131st in passing yards allowed during the regular season, and outside the top-90 in yards per pass and sack rate. Eagles QB JC French threw for a season-high 352 yards in their first meeting, while Georgia Southern put up nearly 500 yards of offense and 25 first downs.

The final score of 25-23 suggests a tight-scoring affair, but the Eagles were up 22-3 heading into the final quarter, and their opponent never possessed the ball with a chance to win. That matchup was against an App State defense at full strength, but that won’t be the case on Monday. Five starters are expected to sit, leaving a collection of second and third stringers for Georgia Southern to feast on.

On the other side of the ball, we’ll get to the Mountaineers opt outs below, but all you need to know is that freshman Noah Gillon is expected to start. App State’s third string QB has just 32 career throws on his collegiate resume, and the results have not been pretty.

Gillon brings a 40.6% completion percentage into action, and a laughable 4.9 QBR. He’s yet to throw a touchdown, and averages only 3.5 yards per attempt. The freshman has yet to flash any kind of rushing upside, and has already absorbed 6 sacks on 40 drop backs. The Eagles defense isn’t imposing, but they’re operating at close to full strength, which should be more than enough to limit the shorthanded Mountaineers offense.

Also working against Gillon is a lack of starters on offense. Multiple receivers and linemen are expected to sit, opening the door for Georgia Southern to generate even more pressure.

Georgia Southern vs App State Line

The best place to bet the Eagles against the spread is over at FanDuel. They’re currently hanging a -7.5 line at -110 odds, while the bulk of the other commercial books have moved the spread to -8.5.

If for some reason you have enough irrational confidence in Gillon to bet App State on the moneyline, visit Bet365. They’re offering the longest odds in market on the Mountaineers to pull off the upset.

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Per the college football public betting trends, Georgia Southern was a moneymaker for ATS bettors down the stretch, going 3-1 against the number over their final four games. App State meanwhile, finished with a 1-2-1 ATS record in their final four outings.

Georgia Southern vs App State Opt Outs

Onto the laundry list of Mountaineers showing up in the college football opt outs tracker. The list is headlined by AJ Swann and JJ Kohl, their top two quarterbacks. Also opting out is Jaden Barnes and Davion Dozier, App State’s number one and no. 3 receivers. The duo combined to score 12 TD in the regular season, which is more than the rest of the entire pass catching corp combined.

As mentioned, multiple linemen and key defenders are also opting out, putting the Mountaineers way behind the eight-ball. That’s amplified due to the fact that no Eagles are opting out, although they may be missing lead RB OJ Arnold due to injury.