Who will attend Zohran Mamdani’s Inauguration? See odds from latest prediction markets
By Paul Lebowitz in Politics News
Published:
- The polarizing New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani will be sworn in as Mayor immediately when the calendar turns from 2025 to 2026
- Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will feature in the event, but questions remain over other attendees
- See all the latest odds and prediction markets for Mamdani’s inauguration.
NYC Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani’s perceived philosophies as a democratic-socialist, plus the fact that he is so young and relatively unknown, have led many figures to employ a wait-and-see approach before getting too close to him politically. That has resulted in market-based questions as to who will and will not attend his swearing-in ceremony.
It’s important to note that there will be two ceremonial events. The first will be at the Old City Hall subway station after midnight on New Year’s Day. The second will be on the steps of City Hall at 1:00 pm ET.
As the major political event in NYC approaches, many are looking towards prediction markets to trade on outcomes for who might attend Mamdani’s Inauguration ceremony.
The Guaranteed Attendees, Barring Catastrophe
Reports have already confirmed that Attorney General of New York Letitia James and Sen. Sanders will both swear in Mamdani. It’s also been revealed that Rep. Ocasio-Cortez will feature in the inauguration event. But their attendance is inextricably connected to requirements of the job from AG James’ perspective, and personal interests for Sanders and AOC.
The former is self-explanatory. It’s Letitia James’ job to do the swearing in.
The two congress members are avowed democrat-socialists. For AOC, she has her eye on advancement. Although there is speculation about a presidential run for her in 2028, AOC’s realistic path is for Senator Chuck Schumer’s position when he retires or is forced out.
And she’s not above pushing him off the cliff.
As for Sanders, he’s 84 and is finally seeing his ideas coming into the mainstream with younger acolytes who can break through the wall that kept him at bay. Had Bernie been ten years younger, he might have beaten President Donald J. Trump in any one of Trump’s three tries at the White House, as many in the Democratic Party were enthusiastic about Bernie.
Odds for attendees at Mamdani’s Inauguration
Here are the latest odds for Mamdani’s swearing-in attendees based on the prediction markets at Kalshi.
If the selection attends a swearing-in ceremony, the market will resolve to “yes.” The source as to whether the person attended must be reputable. That includes the Associated Press, Reuters, The New York Times, USA Today, CNN, and others.
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Other Potential Attendees
Departing NYC Comptroller Brad Lander ran for mayor against Mamdani, but when Andrew Cuomo was trying to galvanize the anti-Mamdani factions in his familiar carpetbagger sort of way, Lander and Mamdani joined forces based on NYC’s ranked choice voting system. He will assuredly be there. So too will former NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio.
Lina Khan is a key part of Mamdani’s transition team, so she’s going to be there. New York State Gov. Kathy Hochul has been reluctant to embrace Mamdani, but her relationship with NYC Mayor Eric Adams was shaky at best. The probability of her attendance at the swearing-in is at 84% with yes being 87¢ and no at 16¢. It’s safe to assume she will be there.
Rep. Hakeem Jeffries is at 67% on Kalshi.
Jeffries’ primary objective seems to be staying squarely non-partisan when it comes to Mamdani. The House Minority Leader needs to maintain a poker face as he prepares for his next step toward higher office. He is already taking on the mannerisms of former President Barack Obama and will steadfastly avoid any negative connections to a complete unknown like Mamdani. Hedging his bets by attending but not cozying up to the new mayor…yet…could be the wisest strategy.
Chuck Schumer is at 50%. The veteran politician was notable in his reluctance to endorse Mamdani. By now, Schumer’s time as a key player in the Democratic Party is running out. If he wants a legacy and influence over the final three years of his tenure in the Senate, it would behoove him to begin making nice with Mamdani.
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Gauging Mamdani Before He Takes Office
Mayor-elect Mamdani needs to be judged in two different ways: his rhetoric and his aspirations.
The rhetoric was terrifying to many with his apparent hostility to law enforcement and leftist ideology that in the 1950s would have gotten him hauled in front of Sen. Joe McCarthy and blacklisted, or worse. However, his aspirations and an objective view of him paint a different picture that was summed up in his surprisingly chummy meeting with President Trump in the Oval Office.
It’s not difficult to envision Mamdani mentally measuring the drapes in the Oval with it in the back of his mind that if he could be elected NYC Mayor at 34, it’s not a big leap to the governorship by 40, and higher by 45. He’ll anger his base by modulating and incrementally moving to the center. But as a likable, intelligent, well-spoken, handsome, charismatic mayor of the biggest city in the nation with an attractive young family, he’ll do what suits his interests. When assessing which political figures will or will not attend, it’s best to look at it in those terms.
Paul Lebowitz is a novelist, columnist, social commentator, and the author of eight published books on baseball – one novel and seven baseball guide/previews. He covers sports, politics, and pop culture. Paul graduated from Hunter College with a degree in English. He lives in New York City.
